Monday, March 23, 2009

My Trip to the NCAA's

Hello, college basketball fans!

This just in. The NCAA tournament played two games from Boise, Idaho. Since they are miles away from civilization, Xavier beat Wisconsin and Missouri beat Marquette. I'm sure you were all waiting for those scores. Why exactly does the NCAA insist on going back to Boise year after year? Sure, there has to be western sites, but ever heard of California where it's nice out? No one wants to fly all the way across the country to go to Boise (correct me if I'm wrong Xavier or Missouri fans). At least have some sort of tourist attraction. Seattle has the Space Needle, Denver has the Rocky Mountains, Phoenix has baseball spring training and the Grand Canyon, and Boise has ... a bunch of spuds? Now granted UCLA had a down year, but none of the top three seeds were in the Mountain or Pacific Time zones. I have no problem with a West Regional but the West should only get one 1st/2nd round site instead of two (especially if the supposed second best site is Boise). Of the 65 teams in the NCAA's this year, only 12 are in the Mountain or Western time zones (and that's in a year where the Pac 10 gets six bids, which doesn't happen too often). Assuming every western team got to stay in the west (impossible due to bracket rules), they would still need four teams from the Eastern/Central teams to fill the two west sites this year. Almost every year they have to fly in top 4 seeded teams from the Eastern/Central time zones to western sites to fill them. They never have to import high seeded teams to Greensboro or Philadelphia or Dayton. Each of these sites hosted #1 seeds this year (maybe Dayton isn't exactly a tourist attraction either but they are within driving distance of Louisville and Pittsburgh, both #1 seeds). If they moved the Boise pods to, say, Chicago or Texas, the traveling teams would be a lot happier. In addition, Boise's arena holds 12,542 seats (http://www.tacobellarena.com/maps.cfm?action=basketball). I'm pretty sure the arenas at Illinois and Penn State hold more than that and neither of them will ever host the NCAA's. I think they should have a policy of at least 15,000 for a 1st/2nd round site. Why would the NCAA want to limit attendance below that?

Those of you who read last week know I went to see my World Series Champion Phillies in Spring Training in Florida. I saw two games, including the St. Patrick's Day game where they wore green shirts. They won both of them. From a lifelong northener (living in Pennsylvania or Illinois all my life), it certainly is nice to be down where it is warm in March. Now all Philadelphia needs is an Eagles Super Bowl. Yeah right, the way they treat their players (Dawkins?) And if you are wondering why I never reveal my name, it's because I don't want to lose my job with the Eagles (they're looking me up now).

Well I got back and heard there were tickets available for the NCAA 2nd round games in Philly, so I went and got them. It was my fourth trip to the NCAA's (I went to Syracuse in 1997 and 2000 and Chicago in 2005, to see my Illini beat Arizona in one of the most improbable comebacks in NCAA history to advance to the Final Four). This was my first time seeing early round action and the mood was obviously not the same (lower stakes). Being in Philly, Villanova is quite popular so the Villanova fans went home happy. The second game involved Texas A&M and Connecticut. I kind of wanted to root against UConn being a Villanova fan but I had Connecticut fans on both sides of me. This falls under the "it's a small world" category. I was next to this couple. She is a UConn fan sporting a UConn jersey. She graduated from UConn. But her boyfriend graduated from the University of San Diego, the team that upset Connecticut in the first round last year. I thought that was funny. Obviously the action wasn't too competitive. You can't expect competitive basketball games when a #1 plays a #9. I did think the 'Nova/UCLA game should've been more competitive.

Not many upsets this year. All four 1 seeds, all four 2 seeds, and all four 3 seeds made the Sweet 16. To put this in perspective, the last time all four 1's and 2's made the Sweet 16 was 1995. Now #1's don't lose often in the 2nd round, but consider the last time all four 2 seeds made the Sweet 16 was 1996 (that year #1 seed Purdue lost in the 2nd round). Only one of the 16 teams is seeded below a 5. CBSSports had an posting which said it's a bad year for Cinderella when your Cinderella is Arizona. I'm not too happy with Arizona making the Sweet 16 as I was hoping to see them embarrass themselves to make St. Mary's, Creighton, and San Diego State happy. It reminded me of George Mason in 2006 after they got in over Hofstra.

Now there were some first round upsets. My Illini lost to Western Kentucky but after last year's debacle if you had told me at the beginning of the year Illinois would be a #5 seed and lose in the first round of the NCAA's, I would've been thrilled. Not to mention, it's pretty clear Western Kentucky has a proven track record (they made the Sweet 16 last year). I actually picked Cleveland State to beat Wake.

Then again, the lack of upsets led to some great Sweet Sixteen matchups. You have Duke/Villanova, Michigan State/Kansas, and North Carolina/Gonzaga (does Gonzaga count as a Cinderella?) As much as I like the occasional upset, I'd rather see high seeded teams in the Final Four than a bunch of lower seeded ones. I remember 2000 when the four Final Four teams were a 1 seed, a 5 seed, and two 8 seeds. Guess who won? Last year? All four #1's. Upsets may be fun, but they can lead to some blowouts in the Sweet 16 round. Often times a 12 seed makes the Sweet 16. Only one has ever won in the Sweet 16. It was Missouri in 2002 and they beat UCLA, who upset the #1 seed in round 2. A #12 has never beaten a #1 in the Sweet 16 round. 4 and 5 seeds? Now that's a different story.

Enjoy the Sweet 16!

Monday, March 16, 2009

Schmolik Bracket Analysis

Hello, college basketball fans!

Time for Schmolik Bracket Analysis

SOUTH (Always start with Illinois's)

Illinois is in as the 5 seed here. I had them a 6 so a 5 is reasonable. I worried they were heading to Boise (the NCAA garbage dump) but they got Portland instead. Sure, it's a long trip but at least they have an NBA team. Boise doesn't even have a major (BCS) college nearby (no Boise State doesn't count - when's the last time they made the NCAA's?). I didn't like seeing Western Kentucky in their bracket. They went to the Sweet 16 last year. If they win (I put WKU's chances at 50-50), it's Gonzaga vs. the Big MAC champ (Akron). It looks unlikely Illinois will make it through the first week, but North Carolina looks to be waiting if they do. Butler looks to be trouble in the 2nd round, but the game is in Greensboro. I can't see any team in UNC's half stopping UNC. On the bottom half, I think Oklahoma is the weakest #2. I had Missouri on the 2 line. They do get a favorable 7-10 with Clemson and Michigan. But I like Syracuse to get to the regional final, losing to UNC.

I was somewhat surprised to see E. Tennessee St as a 16 and Tennessee as a 9. And they are both in Pitt's pod. Not that I think either will stop Pittsburgh, but they seem to have a harder time earlier than the others. I had FSU as a 4 over Xavier so I expect FSU to win.How about UCLA going all the way to Philly? VCU is going to be a tough out but the problem is everyone knows they can win. Most upsets will happen when the lower seed is underestimated. VCU won't be. I think Villanova has a decent chance to beat Duke and make an all Big East regional final (but watch out for Florida State).

In the Midwest, I think it's the toughest. You got Louisville, Michigan State, and Kansas. Siena might be in the toughest geographical disadvantage. They will be playing Ohio State in Dayton followed by Louisville. If OSU and Siena didn't meet in Dayton, I'd pick Siena to win. I think West Virginia could give Kansas a fit in the 2nd (ask Duke). I think Louisville is the favorite.

I can't pick all four #1's so I'll say Memphis is the favorite. Remember the Huskies lost in the 1st round last year. The West looks to be the weakest. I am not saying teams like Washington and Missouri aren't good teams but they just don't have the same ring as teams like Kansas and Syracuse, teams that won the NCAA this decade. If you want an upset waiting to happen, Utah State over Marquette (especially in Boise).

Could we have Calipari vs Pitino in a national semi? Yes. They met in 1996 with UK-UMass before both went to the NBA, failed, and came back. I have UNC beating Pitt and Louisville winning the NCAA's.

My only hope is the NCAA's never return to Boise. You play all year to get into the NCAA's and your reward is a trip to potato town.

Schmolik

Schmolik's Comments on the NCAA

Hello, college basketball fans!

Just went to the Bracket Matrix (http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm). I actually did better than average and better than the last 2 years. Then again, these scores assume the committee was "right" which I don't always believe is true.

My thought was the same as most other bracketologists and Dick Vitale (is agreeing with Vitale a good thing)? Arizona was a highly questionable pick. Out of 61 brackets, only 8 (EIGHT!) had Arizona in their final bracket. I think the committee choked on that one. The team chosen on the 2nd fewest brackets was Maryland at 50 out of 61. Clearly there was some feeling they didn't belong but most (including me) thought they did. Surprisingly Wisconsin was left off of 5 brackets. I thought they were a lock. Minnesota was left off 4 and Boston College 3. Dayton and Michigan were left off just one each. So the consensus was 64 of 65 picks were legit. But who was the one who got screwed? Personally I feel anyone who says "this team belongs" or "doesn't belong" should pick their own bracket. It's not that I don't think St. Mary's doesn't belong, I just don't think they were one of the top 34 at large teams. According to the Matrix, the team that got screwed by the Committee was San Diego State. Still, they were chosen by less than half (28 of 61). Creighton was chosen by 20 and St. Mary's by just 17. Penn State was chosen by 10, still more than Arizona. No other team was picked more than once. But there was no clear cut consensus on who the last team was. If we formed a committee of 61, we would spend half of the field discussion on the last team alone. Maybe they should just go to 64.

I thought maybe Memphis and UConn could go either way. It looks like more of us picked UConn (I had Memphis). I do like them in the same bracket. I thought BC at 7 was a reach. Their RPI is in the 57's. They should be happy to just be in the field. I may have gone overboard with Tennessee, making them a 5. But I was shocked to see them as a 9 seed. Remember three years ago no one but the NCAA's had Tennessee anywhere near a 2 seed and they got it. Now I didn't figure out who was on the committee (Arizona's AD maybe?) but I do know Mike Slive of the SEC was the head. Considering the SEC got just 3, I can't see any favoritism there. Tennessee were approx. a 7 seed by the bracketologists and I did see plenty of 6's.

I think it is weird that Florida State and Xavier are sent to Boise when Miami would make more sense. Utah and Arizona are sent to Miami instead. They should just switch those pods. If Arizona is the last team in, they should have to go to Boise. Honestly, it's a joke Boise even gets to host the NCAA's at all and I think they host them a lot. I always have to watch out who I send to Boise in my bracket. I personally put the last two teams to make my field there as well as Mississippi State, a party crasher. Purdue was stuck there after winning the Big 10 tournament. Had Purdue lost, I would've had to stick Illinois there!

Otherwise, pretty good job by the committee except for Arizona.

Schmolik

Sunday, March 15, 2009

Final 2009 Schmolik 64!

Hello, college basketball fans!

2009 Schmolik 64! (Note: I really don't have the computer time to spend on checking the matchups so there may be duplicate matches. Maybe later next week I can change them).

EAST (Boston Thur/Sat)

Greensboro, NC Thur/Sat
1 North Carolina vs 16 Radford*
8 BYU vs 9 Marquette

Portland, OR Thur/Sat
5 Xavier vs 12 VCU*
4 Washington vs 13 American*

Philadelphia, PA Thur/Sat
6 Illinois vs 11 Cleveland State *
3 Villanova vs 14 Binghamton *

Kansas City, MO Thur/Sat
7 Clemson vs 10 USC *
2 Missouri * vs 15 Big West Champ

WEST (Glendale, AZ Thur/Sat) - East meets West in SF

Kansas City, MO Thur/Sat
1 Memphis * vs 16 Chattanooga *
8 Butler vs 9 California

Boise, ID Fri/Sun
5 Utah * vs 12 Minnesota
4 Wake Forest vs 13 Mississippi State*

Portland, OR Thur/Sat
6 UCLA vs 11 Boston College
3 Oklahoma vs 14 Southland Champ

Philadelphia, PA Thur/Sat
7 Ohio State vs 10 Utah State*
2 Connecticut vs 15 Robert Morris*

SOUTH (Memphis, TN Fri/Sun)

Dayton, OH Fri/Sun
1 Louisville * vs 16 Morgan State *
8 Siena * vs 9 Texas A&M

Boise, ID Fri/Sun
5 Purdue * vs 12 Maryland
4 Gonzaga * vs 13 Northern Iowa *

Minneapolis, MN Fri/Sun
6 West Virginia vs 11 Michigan
3 Kansas vs 14 North Dakota State *

Greensboro, NC Thur/Sat
7 LSU vs 10 Temple *
2 Duke vs 15 Cornell *

MIDWEST (Indianapolis, IN Fri/Sun)

Dayton, OH Fri/Sun
1 Pittsburgh vs Play In - SWAC Champ * vs Morehead St *
8 Texas vs 9 Wisconsin

Miami, FL Fri/Sun
5 Tennessee vs 12 Western Kentucky *
4 Florida State vs 13 Akron *

Miami, FL Fri/Sun
6 Arizona State vs 11 Dayton
3 Syracuse vs 14 E Tennessee State *

Minneapolis, MN Fri/Sun
7 Oklahoma State vs 10 San Diego State
2 Michigan State vs 15 Portland State*

Schmolik

Friday, March 13, 2009

Schmolik Bubble Watch Fri. 3/13 1:51am

Schmolik Bubble Watch

Hello, college basketball fans!

Updated: March 13, 2009 1:51am. After SIX OT's of Connecticut and Syracuse!

It's time for Schmolik's Bubble Watch. For many teams, this is a make or break week. Bubble Watch analyzes who is on the bubble and their chances of making the NCAA's.

First, teams that I feel are locks for the tournament. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind during the week. Automatic Bids not included.

ACC: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Duke, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College
A-10: Xavier, Dayton
Big East: Louisville, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big 10: Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State
Big 12: Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Texas
C-USA: Memphis
Horizon: Butler
MWC: Utah, Brigham Young
Pac 10: Washington, UCLA
SEC: LSU, Tennessee

Total # Locks: 34
Minimum # Locks: 25

March 13 Update: Siena won automatic bid, Boston College added to locks, Miami, Cincinnati, Georgetown, New Mexico, and UNLV removed from consideration

Stats courtesy of CBSSports.com and Joe Lunardi's InsideRPI (ESPN Insider Subscription required). Rankings are as of March 8, 2009.

RPI/ Conf or Non Conf RPI: Good RPI is 30's or higher, marginal is 40's, poor is 50's or below.
Last 12 games: 8-4 or better is a strength, 6-6 or lower a weakness.
SOS/Non Conf SOS: Good is top 20, bad is below 100.
Top 25 games: Strength: Two or more, Weakness: Zero
Top 50 games: Strength: Four or more, Weakness: One or fewer
Bad losses: Weakness: Home losses to teams below 100 in RPI, Loss to teams below 200 in RPI

Bubble Teams (In/Out as of Last Schmolik 64 Update)

ACC

Maryland (Out)

Strengths: Two Top 25 wins (vs Michigan State, North Carolina), Bubble wins (Michigan, Virginia Tech)

Weaknesses: RPI (67), Conf RPI (61), 5-7 in last 12 games, Non Conf SOS (136), Bad Loss (Morgan State)

Should Be In If: They make the ACC Final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the ACC SF, beating Wake Forest, They beat NC State but lose to Wake Forest

Outlook: A hard sell at this point, even if they win their first tourney game. A win over Wake would help a lot, but it may not even be enough.

Virginia Tech (Out)

StrengthsL Two Top 25 Wins (at Wake Forest, at Clemson)

Weaknesses: RPI (63), Non Conf RPI (67), Non Conf SOS (158), 4-8 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (at Maryland)

Should Be In If: They make the ACC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the ACC SF, beating North Carolina, They beat Miami but lose to North Carolina

Outlook: Just like Maryland, a win over North Carolina might not be enough and it would be very unlikely if they don't beat the Tar Heels. One thing for sure, the loser of the VaTech/Miami game definitely is out.

Atlantic 10

Temple (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf SOS (20), 8-4 in last 12 games, Bubble Wins (at Penn State)

Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (58), Only one Top 50 win (Tennessee)

Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final, beating Xavier
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the A-10 SF, losing to Xavier

Outlook: OK RPI numbers, the Penn State win will give the Owls some consideration (assuming they lose to Xavier).

Big East

Providence (Out)

Strengths: Two Top 25 wins (Syracuse, Pittsburgh)

Weaknesses: RPI (71), Conf RPI (57), Non Conf RPI (83), Non Conf SOS (157), 6-6 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (vs St. Mary's)

Tournament Road: Beat DePaul, Lost to Louisville

Outlook: Not much positive to say, the two bubble wins are over teams with little or no chance of making the NCAA's anyway

Big 10

Penn State (In)

Strengths: Three Top 25 wins (at Michigan State, at Illinois, Illinois), Six Top 50 wins (also Purdue, Michigan, Minnesota), Bubble Wins (Michigan, Minnesota)

Weaknesses: RPI (66), Conf RPI (55), Non Conf RPI (92), Non Conf SOS (313!), Bubble Losses (at Temple, at Minnesota, at Michigan)

Should Be In If: Beats Purdue, makes SF
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses to Purdue

Outlook: I realize no one wants to come to the middle of nowhere in Pennsylvania in the winter (trust me, I've been there), but their non conference SOS is dreadful and the committee can send a message and keep them out if they fail to beat Purdue. Of course, those top 25 and top 50 wins are impressive.

Michigan (In)

Strengths: Conf RPI (36), Non Conf RPI (35), SOS (10), Two Top 25 Wins (Illinois, Duke), Six Top 50 Wins (also vs UCLA, Minnesota, Purdue, at Minnesota), Bubble Wins (Penn State, Minnesota - 2)

Weaknesses: 6-6 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (at Penn State)

Should Be In If: Beats Illinois, makes SF
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses to Illinois

Outlook: Penn State finished a game ahead of Michigan in the standings but Michigan has a significantly higher conference RPI as they played a tougher Big 10 schedule. They also played a much better non conference schedule which included wins over UCLA and Duke. Don't be surprised if Michigan gets taken over Penn State if it came down to one or the other.

Minnesota (In)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (16), Two Top 25 Wins (vs Louisville, Illinois), Five Top 50 Wins (also Ohio State, at Wisconsin, Wisconsin), Bubble Wins (Penn State)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (60), Non Conf SOS (184), 5-7 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (at Penn State, at Michigan, Michigan)

Should Be In If: Beats Michigan State, makes SF
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses to Michigan State

Outlook: They have the worst conf RPI of the three Big 10 bubble schools and were swept by Michigan which could hurt them if it comes down to them and the Wolverines (and Michigan just won at Minnesota in the last game). Probably would have a better chance if Penn State loses in their 1st game.

Big 12
No Bubble Teams

Conf USA
No Bubble Teams

MWC

New Mexico (In)

Strengths: Conf RPI (22), 10-2 in last 12 games, Two Top 25 wins (Utah, BYU), Bubble wins (San Diego State)

Weaknesses: RPI (58), Non Conf RPI (103), Non Conf SOS (171), Bubble losses (at San Diego State)

Should Be In If: Makes the MWC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Makes the MWC SF
Should Be Out If: Loses their first MWC game to Wyoming

Outlook: Tying for the MWC lead will give them consideration but their low RPI and weak non conference schedule will probably cost them if they lose to Wyoming.

San Diego State (In)

Strengths: Conf RPI (34), 8-4 in last 12 games, Bubble wins (UNLV - 2, New Mexico)

Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (54), Only 1 Top 50 win (Utah), Bubble losses (at Arizona, at New Mexico)

Should Be In If: Makes the MWC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses to Utah in MWC SF

Outlook: A game behind New Mexico in conference. A loss to UNLV may not be fatal as they would still hold a 2-1 lead over the Rebels and the tournament is on UNLV's home court.

Pac 10

Arizona (In)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (38), 8-4 in last 12 games, Two Top 25 wins (Kansas, Washington), Five Top 50 wins (also vs Gonzaga, UCLA, San Diego State), Bubble Wins - San Diego State

Weaknesses: RPI (54), Conf RPI (65)

Tournament Road: Lost to Arizona State in QF

Outlook: Came on strong and have great wins. They avoid the potential bad loss in the 1st round which helps them. I would be rooting for San Diego State to beat UNLV as that would clearly help their chances

SEC

South Carolina (Out)

Strengths: 8-4 in last 12 games, Bubble Wins (Auburn)

Weaknesses: RPI (49), Non Conf RPI (76), Non Conf SOS (272), No Top 25 wins, Only one Top 50 win (Florida)

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Makes the SEC SF
Should Be Out If: Loses their first SEC game to Mississippi State

Outlook: Extremely weak in the quality win category and a pathetic non conference schedule, they have to show something in the SEC tournament.

Auburn (Out)

Strengths: Conf RPI (32), 9-3 in last 12 games

Weaknesses: RPI (64), Non Conf RPI (80), Non Conf SOS (194), Bad losses (Mercer), Bubble losses (at South Carolina)

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Makes the SEC SF
Should Be Out If: Loses their first SEC game to Florida

Outlook: The reason I don't have Florida in the bubble watch is that Florida does not have Auburn's conference RPI or Auburn's 9-3 finish. Of course, Auburn will miss the NCAA's if they lose to Florida but would at least put themselves in the conversation with a win over the Gators.

Other

Utah State (In)

Strengths: RPI (29), Conf RPI (28), 9-3 in last 12 games
Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (55), Non Conf SOS (186), Only One Top 50 win (Utah), Bubble loss (St. Mary's)

Should Be In If: Wins the tournament (automatic bid)
Should Be On the Bubble If: Does not lose to Hawaii or Fresno State

Outlook: Similar to Siena but they don't have the non conference scedule of Siena. A loss to Hawaii or Fresno State will likely plummet their RPI and conference RPI as well as end their at large hopes.

Creighton (In)

Strengths: RPI (39), 11-1 in last 12 games
Weaknesses: Conf RPI (50), SOS (111), Non Conf SOS (131), Bad losses (Drake)

Tournament Result: Lost to Illinois State in MVC SF

Outlook: I hesitate since they lost two of three to Illinois State which is right there in the RPI. The big differences are a three game difference in the MVC regular season standings and an 11-1 vs 7-5 for ISU. If it weren't for that, Creighton's chances would be better. Still, the committee has slighted the MVC in recent years and it wouldn't surprise me at all if they did again.

St. Mary's (In)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (28), 8-4 in last 12 games

Weaknesses; Conf RPI (109), SOS (143), No Top 25 wins

Tournament Result: Lost to Gonzaga in WCC Final

Outlook: They needed to get to the final. I'm not sure if that was impressive enough a victory. The win over Utah State will help their at large bid hopes.

Teams who I feel can play themselves into the tournament with a good week (list is not all inclusive). Teams previously listed that were eliminated have been removed.

C-USA: UAB, Tulsa
Pac 10: USC
SEC: Florida, Kentucky

Schmolik

Monday, March 9, 2009

Schmolik Bubble Watch (3/9/09)

Schmolik Bubble Watch

Hello, college basketball fans!

Updated: March 9, 2009

It's time for Schmolik's Bubble Watch. For many teams, this is a make or break week. Bubble Watch analyzes who is on the bubble and their chances of making the NCAA's.

First, teams that I feel are locks for the tournament. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind during the week. Automatic Bids not included.

ACC: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Duke, Florida State, Clemson
A-10: Xavier, Dayton
Big East: Louisville, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big 10: Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State
Big 12: Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Texas
C-USA: Memphis
Horizon: Butler
MWC: Utah, Brigham Young
Pac 10: Washington, UCLA
SEC: LSU, Tennessee
WCC: Gonzaga

Total # Locks: 34
Minimum # Locks: 23

Stats courtesy of CBSSports.com and Joe Lunardi's InsideRPI (ESPN Insider Subscription required). Rankings are as of March 8, 2009.

RPI/ Conf or Non Conf RPI: Good RPI is 30's or higher, marginal is 40's, poor is 50's or below.
Last 12 games: 8-4 or better is a strength, 6-6 or lower a weakness.
SOS/Non Conf SOS: Good is top 20, bad is below 100.
Top 25 games: Strength: Two or more, Weakness: Zero
Top 50 games: Strength: Four or more, Weakness: One or fewer
Bad losses: Weakness: Home losses to teams below 100 in RPI, Loss to teams below 200 in RPI

Bubble Teams (In/Out as of Last Schmolik 64 Update)

ACC

Boston College (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (37), 8-4 in last 12 games, Three Top 25 wins (at North Carolina, Duke, Florida State), Four Top 50 wins (also UAB), Bubble Wins (at Maryland, Virginia Tech, UAB, Providence)

Weaknesses: RPI (57), Non Conf RPI (69), Non Conf SOS (229), Bubble Losses: Miami (2), at Virginia Tech, Bad Loss: Harvard

Should Be In If: One ACC Win
Should Be On Bubble if: Loses first ACC game

Outlook: The safest of the ACC bubble teams, probably in for sure if it weren't for the Harvard loss.

Maryland (Out)

Strengths: Two Top 25 wins (vs Michigan State, North Carolina), Bubble wins (Michigan, Miami, Virginia Tech)

Weaknesses: RPI (67), Conf RPI (61), 5-7 in last 12 games, Non Conf SOS (133), Bubble Losses (vs Georgetown, at Miami, Boston College), Bad Loss (Morgan State)

Should Be In If: They make the ACC Final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the ACC SF, beating Wake Forest, They beat NC State but lose to Wake Forest
Should Be Out If: They lose to NC State

Outlook: A hard sell at this point, even if they win their first tourney game. A win over Wake would help a lot, but it may not even be enough.

Virginia Tech (Out)

StrengthsL Two Top 25 Wins (at Wake Forest, at Clemson), Bubble Wins (Boston College, at Miami)

Weaknesses: RPI (62), Non Conf RPI (67), Non Conf SOS (159), 4-8 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (at Boston College, at Maryland)

Should Be In If: They make the ACC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the ACC SF, beating North Carolina, They beat Miami but lose to North Carolina
Should Be Out If: They lose to Miami

Outlook: Just like Maryland, a win over North Carolina might not be enough and it would be very unlikely if they don't beat the Tar Heels. One thing for sure, the loser of the VaTech/Miami game definitely is out.

Miami Florida (Out)

Strengths: Two Top 25 wins (Florida State, Wake Forest), Bubble Wins: Boston College (2), Maryland

Weaknesses: RPI (53), Non Conf RPI (52), Non Conf SOS (223), 5-7 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (at Maryland, Virginia Tech)

Should Be In If: They make the ACC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the ACC SF, beating North Carolina, They beat Virginia Tech but lose to North Carolina
Should Be Out If: They lose to Virginia Tech

Outlook: See Virginia Tech

Atlantic 10

Temple (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf SOS (20), 8-4 in last 12 games, Bubble Wins (at Penn State)

Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (57), Only one Top 50 win (Tennessee)

Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final, beating Xavier
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the A-10 SF, losing to Xavier
Should Be Out If: They lose in their first A-10 tourney game or lose the SF to someone other than Xavier

Outlook: OK RPI numbers, the Penn State win will give the Owls some consideration (assuming they lose to Xavier).

Big East

Providence (Out)

Strengths: Two Top 25 wins (Syracuse, Pittsburgh), Bubble wins (Cincinnati - 2)

Weaknesses: RPI (70), Conf RPI (50), Non Conf RPI (81), Non Conf SOS (158), 6-6 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (vs St. Mary's, at Boston College, at Georgetown)

Should Be In If: They make the Big East final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the Big East SF, They make the Big East QF, losing to Louisville
Should Be Out If: They lose their first Big East game to Cincinnati or DePaul.

Outlook: Not much positive to say, the two bubble wins are over teams with little or no chance of making the NCAA's anyway

Cincinnati (Out)

Strengths: Four Top 50 wins (UAB, Georgetown - 2, West Virginia), Bubble wins (at UNLV, Georgetown - 2)

Weaknesses: RPI (72), Conf RPI (84), 6-6 in last 12 games, No Top 25 Wins, Bubble Losses (Providence - 2)

Should Be In If: They make the Big East final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the Big East SF
Should Be Out If: They do not make the semifinals

Outlook: I don't think a win over Providence would be enough as Providence has already beaten Cincinnati twice and would stay ahead of them in the pecking order. The loss would probably do more to hurt Providence's chances than help Cincinnati's.

Georgetown (Out)

Strengths: SOS (4), Non Conf RPI (5), Non Conf SOS (11), Four Top 25 wins (Memphis, at Connecticut, Syracuse, at Villanova), Four Top 50 wins, Bubble Wins (vs Maryland, Providence)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (74), 4-8 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (Cincinnati - 2)

Should Be In If: They make the Big East final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the Big East SF, losing to Villanova, They make the Big East QF, losing to Marquette
Should Be Out If: They lose their first Big East game

Outlook: Don't laugh at the Hoyas. They clearly have played a tough schedule and a tough non conference schedule. Their RPI is in the middle and they have four top 25 wins. The tournament path works in their favor. If they win their first game, they have Marquette, which hasn't won a game since Dominic James went down. They are behind Cincinnati and Notre Dame in the Big East standings but the Selection Committee has been known to pass over teams with better conference records. Their top 25 wins might be enough and there's always a team that gets in with poor numbers but eye catching wins. If any team is that team this year, it's Georgetown.

Big 10

Penn State (In)

Strengths: Three Top 25 wins (at Michigan State, at Illinois, Illinois), Six Top 50 wins (also Purdue, Michigan, Minnesota), Bubble Wins (Michigan, Minnesota)

Weaknesses: RPI (63), Conf RPI (56), Non Conf RPI (90), Non Conf SOS (313!), Bubble Losses (at Temple, at Minnesota, at Michigan)

Should Be In If: Beats Indiana and Purdue, makes SF
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Indiana, loses to Purdue
Should Be Out If: Loses to Indiana!

Outlook: I realize no one wants to come to the middle of nowhere in Pennsylvania in the winter (trust me, I've been there), but their non conference SOS is dreadful and the committee can send a message and keep them out if they fail to beat Purdue. Of course, those top 25 and top 50 wins are impressive.

Michigan (In)

Strengths: Conf RPI (35), Non Conf RPI (34), SOS (10), Two Top 25 Wins (Illinois, Duke), Six Top 50 Wins (also vs UCLA, Minnesota, Purdue, at Minnesota), Bubble Wins (Penn State, Minnesota - 2)

Weaknesses: 6-6 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (at Penn State)

Should Be In If: Beats Iowa and Illinois, makes SF
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Iowa, loses to Illinois
Should Be Out If: Loses to Iowa

Outlook: Penn State finished a game ahead of Michigan in the standings but Michigan has a significantly higher conference RPI as they played a tougher Big 10 schedule. They also played a much better non conference schedule which included wins over UCLA and Duke. Don't be surprised if Michigan gets taken over Penn State if it came down to one or the other.

Minnesota (In)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (17), Two Top 25 Wins (vs Louisville, Illinois), Five Top 50 Wins (also Ohio State, at Wisconsin, Wisconsin), Bubble Wins (Penn State)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (62), Non Conf SOS (186), 5-7 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (at Penn State, at Michigan, Michigan)

Should Be In If: Beats Northwestern and Michigan State, makes SF
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Northwestern, loses to Michigan State
Should Be Out If: Loses to Northwestern

Outlook: They have the worst conf RPI of the three Big 10 bubble schools and were swept by Michigan which could hurt them if it comes down to them and the Wolverines (and Michigan just won at Minnesota in the last game). Probably would have a better chance if Penn State loses in their 1st game.

Big 12
No Bubble Teams

Conf USA
No Bubble Teams

MWC

New Mexico (In)

Strengths: Conf RPI (20), 10-2 in last 12 games, Two Top 25 wins (Utah, BYU), Bubble wins (San Diego State, UNLV)

Weaknesses: RPI (58), Non Conf RPI (110), Non Conf SOS (177), Bubble losses (at San Diego State, at UNLV)

Should Be In If: Makes the MWC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Makes the MWC SF
Should Be Out If: Loses their first MWC game to Wyoming

Outlook: Tying for the MWC lead will give them consideration but their low RPI and weak non conference schedule will probably cost them if they lose to Wyoming.

San Diego State (In)

Strengths: Conf RPI (32), 8-4 in last 12 games, Bubble wins (UNLV - 2, New Mexico)

Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (53), Only 1 Top 50 win (Utah), Bubble losses (at Arizona, at New Mexico)

Should Be In If: Makes the MWC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Makes the MWC SF, Loses their first MWC game to UNLV

Outlook: A game behind New Mexico in conference. A loss to UNLV may not be fatal as they would still hold a 2-1 lead over the Rebels and the tournament is on UNLV's home court.

UNLV (Out)

Strengths: Four Top 25 Wins (at Louisville, BYU - 2, Utah), Four Top 50 Wins, Bubble wins - Arizona, New Mexico

Weaknesses: RPI (55), Conf RPI (82), Non Conf SOS (152), Bubble Losses - at New Mexico, San Diego State - 2, Cincinnati

Should Be In If: Makes the MWC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Makes the MWC SF, losing to Utah
Should Be Out If: Loses their first MWC game to San Diego State or their second game to someone other than Utah

Outlook: Finished two games behind San Diego State (and were swept by them) and three behind New Mexico. Of course, the four top 25 wins will help them (see Georgetown). I would hate to see UNLV get in over San Diego State if they win the quarterfinal, but I can see it happening.

Pac 10

Arizona (In)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (36), 8-4 in last 12 games, Two Top 25 wins (Kansas, Washington), Five Top 50 wins (also vs Gonzaga, UCLA, San Diego State), Bubble Wins - San Diego State

Weaknesses: RPI (52), Conf RPI (66), Bubble losses - at UNLV

Should Be In If: Beats Arizona State in Pac 10 QF
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses to Arizona State in Pac 10 QF

Outlook: Came on strong and have great wins. They avoid the potential bad loss in the 1st round which helps them. I would be rooting for San Diego State to beat UNLV as that would clearly help their chances

SEC

South Carolina (Out)

Strengths: Conf RPI (38), 8-4 in last 12 games, Bubble Wins (Auburn)

Weaknesses: RPI (50), Non Conf RPI (74), Non Conf SOS (275), No Top 25 wins, Only one Top 50 win (Florida)

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Makes the SEC SF
Should Be Out If: Loses their first SEC game to Mississippi State or Georgia

Outlook: Extremely weak in the quality win category and a pathetic non conference schedule, they have to show something in the SEC tournament.

Auburn (Out)

Strengths: Conf RPI (31), 9-3 in last 12 games

Weaknesses: RPI (64), Non Conf RPI (82), Non Conf SOS (198), Bad losses (Mercer), Bubble losses (at South Carolina)

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Makes the SEC SF
Should Be Out If: Loses their first SEC game to Florida or Arkansas

Outlook: The reason I don't have Florida in the bubble watch is that Florida does not have Auburn's conference RPI or Auburn's 9-3 finish. Of course, Auburn will miss the NCAA's if they lose to Florida but would at least put themselves in the conversation with a win over the Gators.

Other

Siena (In)

Strengths: RPI (24), Conf RPI (23), Non Conf RPI (37), Non Conf SOS (2), 10-2 in last 12 games

Weaknesses: No Top 25 or Top 50 wins

Should Be In If: Wins the tournament (automatic bid)
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses the final to Niagara

Outlook: Pretty much "no quality wins" is the only reason they would not make the tourmanent, but that could be enough for the Selection Committee. Considering they have the second best non conference schedule in the country (and that's saying something), I would be furious if they didn't make it in, especially considering they made the final and would lose to Niagara who would probably make the top 50 in RPI if they beat Siena. Of course, if they win it's a moot point.

Utah State (In)

Strengths: RPI (27), Conf RPI (28), 9-3 in last 12 games
Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (51), Non Conf SOS (167), Only One Top 50 win (Utah), Bubble loss (St. Mary's)

Should Be In If: Wins the tournament (automatic bid)
Should Be On the Bubble If: Does not lose to Hawaii or Fresno State
Should Be Out If: Loses to Hawaii or Fresno State

Outlook: Similar to Siena but they don't have the non conference scedule of Siena. A loss to Hawaii or Fresno State will likely plummet their RPI and conference RPI as well as end their at large hopes.

Creighton (In)

Strengths: RPI (39), 11-1 in last 12 games
Weaknesses: SOS (105), Non Conf SOS (128), Bad losses (Drake)

Tournament Result: Lost to Illinois State in MVC SF

Outlook: I hesitate since they lost two of three to Illinois State which is right there in the RPI. The big differences are a three game difference in the MVC regular season standings and an 11-1 vs 7-5 for ISU. If it weren't for that, Creighton's chances would be better. Still, the committee has slighted the MVC in recent years and it wouldn't surprise me at all if they did again.

St. Mary's (In)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (31), 8-4 in last 12 games

Weaknesses; Conf RPI (114), SOS (170), No Top 25 wins

Should Be In If: Wins the tournament (automatic bid)
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses to Gonzaga in the WCC final

Outlook: They needed to get to the final. I'm not sure if that was impressive enough a victory. The win over Utah State will help their at large bid hopes.

Teams who I feel can play themselves into the tournament with a good week (list is not all inclusive).
Atlantic 10: Rhode Island
Big East: Notre Dame
Big 10: Northwestern
Big 12: Kansas State
C-USA: UAB, Tulsa
Pac 10: USC
SEC: Florida, Kentucky

Schmolik

Schmolik 64 Update (3/9/09) - 7pm ET

Hello, college basketball fans!

This is the fourth Schmolik 64 update for 2009. This is the first one with all 65 teams bracketed. I tried to list a slot for each one bid conference that has not finished their tournament although it isn't perfect and subject to change dependent on the actual teams.

EAST (Boston, MA - Thur/Sat)

Dayton, OH - Fri/Sun
1 Pittsburgh (27-3) vs 16 Play In Winner - Morehead State * (17-15) vs SWAC Champion
8 Arizona State (22-8) vs 9 Wisconsin (18-11)

Miami, FL - Fri/Sun
5 Florida State (23-8) vs 12 Northern Iowa * (22-10)
4 Xavier (24-6) vs 13 Southland Champion

Greensboro, NC - Thur/Sat
6 Texas A&M (22-8) vs 11 New Mexico (21-10)
3 Duke (25-6) vs 14 American East Champion (Binghamton/UMBC)

Minneapolis, MN - Fri/Sun
7 Marquette (23-8) vs 10 Utah State (26-4)
2 Michigan State (25-3) vs 15 Southern Champion (Chattanooga/Charleston)

WEST (Glendale, AZ - Thur/Sat)

Philadelphia, PA - Thur/Sat
1 Connecticut (27-3) vs 16 Northeast Champion (Robert Morris/Mt. St. Mary's)
8 Purdue (22-9) vs 9 Tennessee (19-11)

Portland, OR - Thur/Sat
5 Clemson (23-7) vs 12 San Diego State (19-8)
4 Gonzaga (24-5) vs 13 MAC Champion

Portland, OR - Thur/Sat
6 Syracuse (22-8) vs 11 Penn State (21-10)
3 Washington (23-7) vs 14 Big Sky Champion

Kansas City, MO - Thur/Sat
7 BYU (23-6) vs 10 Boston College (21-10)
2 Kansas (25-6) vs 15 Radford * (18-11)

SOUTH (Memphis, TN - Fri/Sun)

Greensboro, NC - Thur/Sat
1 North Carolina (26-3) vs 16 MEAC Champion
8 Texas (20-10) vs 9 West Virginia (21-10)

Boise, ID - Fri/Sun
5 Butler (25-4) vs 12 St. Mary's (23-5)
4 UCLA (24-7) vs 13 Minnesota (20-9) / Niagara (26-7)

Philadelphia, PA - Thur/Sat
6 Illinois (23-8) vs 11 Creighton (26-7)
3 Villanova (25-6) vs 14 America East Champion (Binghamton/UMBC)

Minneapolis, MN - Fri/Sun
7 LSU (25-6) vs 10 Dayton (25-6)
2 Oklahoma (27-4) vs 15 E. Tennessee State * (21-10)

MIDWEST (Indianapolis, IN - Fri/Sun)

Kansas City, MO - Thur/Sat
1 Memphis (28-3) vs 16 Big West Champion
8 Siena (25-7) vs 9 Ohio State (20-9)

Boise, ID - Fri/Sun
5 Utah (21-8) vs 12 Arizona (19-12)
4 Missouri (24-6) vs 13 Sun Belt Champion

Miami, FL - Fri/Sun
6 California (22-9) vs 11 Colonial Champion (George Mason/Virginia Commonwealth)
3 Wake Forest (24-5) vs 14 Summit Champion

Dayton, OH - Fri/Sun
7 Oklahoma State (20-10) vs 10 Michigan (18-12)
2 Louisville (25-5) vs 15 Cornell * (19-9)

Conf. Alignment:
Big Ten - 8
Big East - 7
ACC - 6
Big 12 - 6
Pac 10 - 5
MWC - 4
SEC - 2
A-10 - 2
WCC - 2
MVC - 2
Others - 21

Schmolik