Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Schmolik Bracket Analysis 2010

Hello, college basketball fans! Happy St. Patrick's Day!

Time for this year's Schmolik Bracket Analysis. Just to give you a reason to read this: In 2007, I correctly picked all eight of the final eight teams, three of the Final Four, both finalists, and correctly picked Florida to win it all over Ohio State. My final was 75-67 (8 pts) and the winning score was 84-75 (9 pts). North Carolina lost to Georgetown in overtime. Had UNC won, I would've had all four Final Four teams! Now last two years, maybe not so much. Last year, I had Carolina losing to Louisville in the final and had one of the Final Four (Carolina). In 2008, I picked two of the Final Four (UNC and UCLA) and picked both to make the Final Four (instead the two #1's I picked to get upset went to the championship game).

Normally, I start with Illinois's bracket but we all know Illinois's not in it.

I'll start with the #1 overall seed and I would say the toughest regional. You got Kansas, Ohio State, Georgetown, Maryland, Michigan State, and Tennessee in one regional. Usually there's one tough regional but I wonder if this could be one of the toughest ever. Luckily for Kansas, they have reasonable drives to Oklahoma City and St. Louis on their way to the Final Four. I heard a little about mid majors playing each other in the 1st round. Is it a good thing that one will make the 2nd round or bad because both won't get the chance to knock off competition from power conferences. I seem to like to see the mid major vs power conference in Round 1 and when picking the Schmolik 64 I usually try to do this. Well, UNLV plays Northern Iowa in this round. I like Northern Iowa in this one. We have some great 2nd round matchups in Maryland vs Michigan State (the folks in Spokane are really lucky) and Georgetown vs Tennessee. Tennessee has beaten Kansas and Kentucky but they don't play NCAA tournament games at home so I'll pick Georgetown. I've learned when in doubt go with Tom Izzo, so I'll pick Michigan State over Maryland but not over Kansas. I won't be surprised in this regional if Kansas doesn't make the Final Four but you have to go with them as the favorite. I'll say Kansas over Georgetown in the regional final and will say if you want to see one regional this year, head to St. Louis. Because it's in a dome, you probably can still get tickets if the Kansas fans haven't bought them already.

I'll head to the West Regional next. Must be the loss to St. Mary's, but I'm not feeling Gonzaga this year (despite the fact that they beat Illinois, one of about 10 games had Illinois won they'd probably be in the tournament). Plus, they are heading to Buffalo. As much as I speak about Spokane and Boise, I'll imagine most of you Westerners are thinking about Buffalo. I mean, we have plenty of great NCAA sites here in the East, so why Buffalo? I think Gonzaga could be in a heap of trouble and will be beaten by Florida State. The real bad news for Gonzaga? Here's a non tournament prediction for you, see if I'm right. We know Mark Few's name gets tossed around all the time whenever any big time college basketball program opening comes up. I'm sure Few has rejected better programs but Oregon is Few's alma mater and he grew up close to Eugene. It's one thing to turn down a lot of other jobs in a far off area, but I think Mark may listen if Oregon calls (and rumors say Ernie Kent is on his way out). I would be shocked if Few wasn't at the top of Oregon's list and with the weakness of the Pac 10 this year, is there any doubt Few could lead them to near the top of the Pac 10 next year if he goes there? I'm not saying Few would go if Oregon calls. I would say if Few doesn't go, he probably will be at Gonzaga the rest of his life.

Getting back to the West regional, watch out for Butler making the Sweet 16 (although I would pick Vanderbilt). Actually, Murray State could be a big upset in round 1. We could have a rematch of Pitt/Xavier in the 2nd round (they met last year in the Sweet 16). BYU hasn't won a tournament game since 1993 and I would imagine a lot of fans of teams that thought they should be in the tournament will be rooting for BYU to beat Florida. Normally Billy Donovan vs. whoever BYU's coach is would seem to be a mismatch but consider BYU made the tournament the last two years and Florida didn't. There are plenty of cases of coaches who made a perceived jump up and failed but you wonder if Billy Donovan made a mistake not jumping (he could have been coaching Dwight Howard in the NBA Finals last June and since then Florida missed the NCAA's and barely made it in this year). In considering the best coaches to not make the Final Four, I'd imagine Jamie Dixon would be up there with Mark Few at the top of my head. This year he took a young team to a #3 seed. I think Pittsburgh has the edge over Kansas State but like last year I think he will meet his end in the Elite Eight to a Big East rival - Syracuse. Keep in mind Pitt was one of the teams that beat Syracuse earlier this year. I think Syracuse may have the easiest path to the Final 8 of anyone.

Let's return East and it is unusual seeing someone outside the ACC or Big East as the #1 seed. But Kentucky leads the pack here. John Calipari has said his team is one of the youngest teams in the NCAA's but also compared his team to the Final Four (not a bad comparison). The biggest collapse of the season has to be Texas, dropping all the way to an 8 seed after being ranked #1 this year. They could either be the team that was #1 or the team that struggled through the tough Big 12. Kentucky hopes they see the 2nd half Texas team and not the first. I think Temple was shafted as they should've been a 3 seed. If you are rooting for a coach to just win one game, Fran Dunphy. His record in the NCAA's? 1-11. He won in 1994 over Nebraska when he was coaching Penn. It's an interesting matchup vs. Cornell in the 1st round. Cornell's coach was an assistant under Dunphy at Penn. This is also a pair of teams that were in the NCAA's the last two years and lost in the 1st round each time. I have to go with Wisconsin to make the Sweet 16. Another guy you don't want to go against is Bo Ryan. The bottom looks to be Bob Huggins and West Virginia's. If you call it an upset, Washington over an overrated Marquette. It's the second year in a row that Marquette went west and played a western team. That's usually a bad thing. But Marquette won last year in the same round. I think New Mexico got a pretty good draw to the Sweet 16 as I think Tennessee or Xavier (other 6's) would be favored over the Lobos. With Kentucky, it's either talent or experience and I'll go with talent and pick them over West Virginia.

As for the weakest regional, of course it is the South. Duke got everything from the play in winner to the weakest 2 and 3 seeds IMHO and a Hummel less Purdue. Then again, I'm not sure Duke is that strong despite winning the ACC (a really weak ACC). While the teams aren't really strong, the challenge will be playing in Houston against potentially two Big 12 teams (Houston is also a big stadium and if there were tickets available they'll be bought by the Texas A&M and Baylor fans). I think the Purdue seeding is fair but if another team I thought got screwed in seeding? Siena. Can you even call Siena beating Purdue an upset. Here's another upset I can see - Old Dominion over Notre Dame. Baylor is I feel a weak 3 but I'm not sure any of their opponents can beat them. I think A&M and Baylor have decent paths to the Sweet 16 which could be huge trouble for Duke and Villanova. I love Villanova but I think they are overseeded. I would pick them over Baylor normally but I have a feeling the crowd may make the difference in both semifinal games. So this may be the stupidest Final Four pick I've ever made - Texas A&M over Baylor in the final!

Final Four: Kentucky has to beat Texas A&M (although a Kentucky/Duke semifinal will be highly anticipated) and I'll give the edge to Kansas over Syracuse. In the final, the youth has to become a factor eventually so I'll pick Kansas to win it all. I will say the bracket seems kind of unbalanced and teams I probably wouldn't pick (A&M) I wound up picking. Kansas can just as easily lose in the Sweet 16 as win it all. At least the games should be close. I imagine the winning scores will be quite low this season.

Recap:
Midwest: Kansas over Ohio State
West: Syracuse over Pittsburgh
East: Kentucky over West Virginia
South: Texas A&M over Baylor

Final Four: Kansas over Syracuse, Kentucky over Texas A&M
Championship: Kansas over Kentucky

Schmolik

Monday, March 15, 2010

Comments on Women's Bracket

Hello, women's college basketball fans!

Well, I missed on three teams in my women's Schmolik 64. I had Boston College, USC, and Illinois State while the NCAA had North Carolina, Arkansas Little Rock, and Wisconsin Green Bay. Obviously, UNC is a perennial power, but they were the 8/9 seed in the ACC and lost in the 1st round of the ACC to Maryland. Meanwhile, Boston College was the 7 seed and upset Florida State in the 1st round. I didn't realize when making my bracket that UNC had beaten Duke but then again so did BC (which I didn't know either). As for the RPI, USC was 36th and Illinois State was 50th while UALR was 56 and Wisc-Green Bay was 70 (Boston College was 48th)! I'll admit to missing on North Carolina although you can make a case for BC and UNC in the field. I found ESPN's experts and all of them said they were shocked at UWGB. Three said the biggest snub was USC and the other said Illinois State, two teams I had in my field. It's nice to see regular season champs make it in as an at large if they were upset in their conference tournament. But then, why not Illinois State? I think the MVC in women's must not be the same as the men's as Northern Iowa got a 16 seed.

As for the #1's, I had Duke over Nebraska. I can see Nebraska as a #1 over Duke, but over Tennessee (they put UConn and Tennessee in the same bracket)? I mean we have Tennessee and we have Nebraska. I didn't even know Nebraska had a women's basketball team until today. ESPN said before the show everyone wanted to see a Connecticut/Tennessee matchup in the final, now it can't happen. The RPI had Tennessee 3rd over Nebraska and both polls did as well. Nebraska lost in the semifinals of its tournament. And even if Nebraska was a #1, I thought put them with Duke, the clear cut #2. Nope, they got a #2 I had as a #3 while Duke and Tennessee have to meet in the regional final (and Big Ten Champ Ohio State gets to lose to UConn). These are the top six teams in the Kansas City regional: Nebraska, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Michigan State, and Georgia Tech. Not one won their conference tournament. I thought Duke received special treatment. Then again, they are Duke. What has Nebraska ever done before? Have they ever won an NCAA game (oh wait, that's the Nebraska men's team)?

I had the same 12 top 3 seeds as the NCAA's (had Duke instead of Nebraska as a #1 and Xavier instead of Notre Dame as a #2). I matched Iowa State and Kentucky as #4's. My other 4 seeds were Texas and Georgetown, the NCAA had Oklahoma State and Baylor, who I had as a 6 seed. Texas was seeded ahead of both in the Big 12 tournament and swept Baylor while Baylor got a 4 seed. I can see Ok State ahead of Texas (they upset #2 seed ISU in the Big 12) but not Baylor ahead of Texas. I often have teams overseeded and underseeded but this could be one of my most interesting mistakes. I had Middle Tennessee, Sun Belt champ as a #6 seed and Mississippi State as a #11 and playing each other. Well the Selection Committee had MSU as a 7 seed and Middle Tennessee as a #10 and ... playing each other. Usually you have a team with a gift seed getting a really easy opponent and a team that got screwed really getting screwed. But here, it seems like they both are getting what they deserved. If you go by the RPI, Midd Tenn is 23 and Miss St was 45. Let's see if the Selection Committee was right or I was.

Well I had fun putting it together and let's see if I do it again next year.

Schmolik

The First Ever Schmolik WOMEN'S 64!

Hello, women's college basketball fans!

I've been doing the Schmolik 64 for a while now and always wanted to do a Schmolik 64 for the women's tournament (by the way, a true 64). Well, I've finally done it. Now I really don't know much about college basketball outside of Connecticut and only found RPI ratings from the NCAA website and the AP and USA Today ratings. Someone want to do a Paymon score on this bracket? Or better yet, how many teams I get correctly?

A few differences I found for the women's tournament. The sites are named after the cities, not the regions.There are 16 1st/2nd round sites so rather than two pods in each site, there are just one. If a school hosts a site, not only is the host school allowed to be there, I think there's an unwritten rule that they have to be there. I also think there are less strict rules on teams from the same conference being placed in the same regional and so on but I tried for the most part to split around the teams in the same conference in the bracket.

Here goes nothing:

Sat/Mon March 20-22
Sun/Tue March 21-23

Final Four is Dayton vs Kansas City and Sacramento vs Memphis

DAYTON REGIONAL - (Sun/Tue March 28-30) I can tell you this, no one wants to be in this regional for one obvious reason...

Sun/Tue games in Minneapolis, MN
1 CONNECTICUT (33-0) vs 16 AUSTIN PEAY (15-17)
8 TULANE (26-6) vs 9 Dayton (24-7)

Sat/Mon games in Louisville, KY
5 Oklahoma State (23-10) vs 12 LOUISIANA TECH (23-8)
4 Kentucky (25-7) vs 13 CHATTANOOGA (24-8)

Sat/Mon games in Tallahassee, FL
6 Baylor (23-9) vs 11 DePaul (21-11)
3 Florida State (26-5) vs 14 LIBERTY (27-5)

Sun/Tue games in Cincinnati, OH
7 Hartford (27-4) vs 10 Wisconsin (21-10)
2 XAVIER (27-3) vs 15 LAMAR (26-7)

KANSAS CITY REGIONAL (Sun/Tue March 28-30)

Sat/Mon games in Durham, NC
1 DUKE (27-5) vs 16 ST. FRANCIS (17-14)
8 Georgia (23-8) vs 9 Temple (24-8)

Sat/Mon games in Seattle, WA
5 GONZAGA (27-4) vs 12 Boston College (17-15)
4 Georgetown (25-6) vs 13 PRINCETON (26-2)

Sat/Mon games in Berkeley, CA
6 Ucla (24-8) vs 11 SAN DIEGO STATE (21-10)
3 West Virginia (28-5) vs 14 E. TENNESSEE ST (23-8)

Sat/Mon games in Tempe, AZ
7 NC State (20-13) vs 10 Usc (19-12)
2 Nebraska (30-1) vs 15 UC RIVERSIDE (17-15)

SACRAMENTO REGIONAL (Sat/Mon March 27-29)

Sat/Mon games in Palo Alto, CA
1 STANFORD (31-1) vs 16 PORTLAND STATE (18-14)
8 Lsu (20-9) vs 9 Fresno State (27-6)

Fri/Sun games in Austin, TX
5 St. John's (24-6) vs 12 Tcu (22-8)
4 Texas (22-10) vs 13 LEHIGH (29-3)

Fri/Sun games in Norman, OK
6 MIDDLE TENNESSEE (25-5) vs 11 Mississippi State (19-12)
3 Oklahoma (23-10) vs 14 NORTHERN IOWA (17-15)

Fri/Sun games in Pittsburgh, PA
7 Rutgers (19-14) vs 10 VERMONT (26-6)
2 OHIO STATE (30-4) vs 15 SOUTH DAKOTA ST (22-10)

MEMPHIS REGIONAL (Thur/Sat March 27-29)

Thur/Sat games in Knoxville, TN
1 TENNESSEE (30-2) vs 16 SOUTHERN (23-8)
8 Georgia Tech (23-9) vs 9 JAMES MADISON (26-6)

Fri/Sun games in Ames, IA
5 Michigan State (22-9) vs 12 MARIST (26-7)
4 Iowa State (23-7) vs 13 Illinois State (24-7)

Fri/Sun games in South Bend, IN
6 Vanderbilt (22-10) vs 11 BOWLING GREEN (27-6)
3 Notre Dame (27-5) vs 14 CLEVELAND STATE (19-13)

Fri/Sun games in Norfolk, VA
7 Virginia (21-9) vs 10 Iowa (19-13)
2 TEXAS A&M (25-7) vs 15 HAMPTON (20-11)

Top 50 RPI Teams left out:
#38 North Carolina (19-11, 5-8 in ACC)
#44 Kansas (15-15, 5-11 in Big 12)
#46 Maryland (19-12, 5-8 in ACC)

Multiple bid:

Big East (7): Conn, WV, ND, GTown, St. J, Rut, DeP
Big 12 (7): Neb, A&M, Okl, ISU, Tex, OSU, Bay
ACC (6): Duke, FSU, Va, NCSt, GaT, BC
SEC (6): Tenn, Ky, Vbilt, Ga, LSU, MSU
Big 10 (4): OSU, MSU, Iowa, Wisc
A-10 (3): Xav, Temp, Day
Pac 10 (3): Stan, UCLA, USC
AE (2): Htfd, Vt
WAC (2): FrSt, LaT
MWC (2): TCU, SDSt
MVC (2): ISU, N Iowa
One bid: 19

Schmolik

Comments on NCAA Bracket and Other Brackets

Hello, college basketball fans!

Time to compare my bracket to the NCAA's and to other brackets across the web. Thank you to the Bracket Project (http://bracketproject.blogspot.com/) for compiling all the results in the Bracket Matrix.

As upset as I am that my Illini aren't in (for two reasons, one because I graduated from there and two if they had gotten in I would've been perfect for the first time in 17 years), I knew they were a very questionable pick and I can't tell you for sure Illinois is a better team than Florida. We beat Michigan State, but so did they. We beat Vanderbilt, they beat Tennessee. Florida's RPI was by far better and their conference RPI was better (it was amazing Illinois was even in the discussion with their RPI in the 70's). Florida had fewer bad losses although they did lose at home to South Alabama, who wasn't even in the top 200 RPI. The Sportsline polls favored Illinois over Florida, even with the names removed (blind resumes). I think there were 64 clear cut picks (including Minnesota) and a lot of candidates for the last spot. I think if I were Mississippi State, I'd be a little ticked off that Florida did get in ahead of MSU. Florida and Mississippi State were both 9-7 in the SEC and split two games but Florida won at Florida and Mississippi State won in the SEC tournament (and followed that up with a victory over Vanderbilt and then were less than a second away from beating Kentucky). Then again, Florida of course played in the much tougher SEC East and MSU got a bye instead of Florida in the SEC tournament. Had MSU played and Florida had a bye, maybe Florida wins the game. I was rooting hard for Kentucky to win that game thinking maybe Illinois would get in. I give credit to Kentucky for actually playing hard in what was probably a meaningless game for them (especially trying to force overtime by intentionally missing the last free throw and getting the rebound). It seemed more like an NFL team locked in position (I doubt they would've passed Kansas for #1 overall). I almost wonder if UTEP, Cal, and Utah State weren't playing with the same effort trying to help their leagues get two bids instead of one (of course it turned out UTEP and Utah State might have cost themselves a bid). The question that will never be answered probably was had Mississippi State won, who would be out? From what I was saying all along, it should have been Florida that would be out. But Florida received a 10 seed so it in theory would've been one of the at large 12 seeds (UTEP or Utah State). I wouldn't have been happy to see that happen (or even if Illinois were in and one of UTEP and Utah State lost).

As for Virginia Tech, usually I agree not to take a team behind in standings (then again, Virginia Tech had by far the worst ACC schedule, playing all five of the bottom five teams twice and all six of the ACC NCAA teams just once) and do agree with the fact that Virginia Tech beat both Wake Forest and Georgia Tech (in Atlanta). But then look at their non conference schedule. It wasn't bad, it was awful. Their RPI was way behind the others. Maybe if Georgia Tech had lost to Maryland, Georgia Tech probably doesn't get in. But the Jackets made it to the final and it would be hard to leave them out after that. The Hokies were in my opinion hurt by Championship Week, losing to #12 seed Miami and not only by party crashers but other bubble teams like Minnesota and Mississippi State, who were longshots when the week started.

I spent Saturday at the Atlantic 10 tournament in Atlantic City. They had a "Fan Zone" which had TV's that I watched from time to time after the Temple game was over. While I liked that Temple won (I have a graduate degree from Temple), Saturday couldn't have been worse for Illinois. First, Houston won, stealing an at large bid from Illinois. Then Illinois went double OT vs Ohio State and wound up losing. Then Mississippi State and Minnesota both won. The more you think about it, Minnesota should've been in over Illinois had they both lost on Saturday but I knew Minnesota would get in first after they stomped over Purdue. And finally New Mexico State won. Houston and New Mexico State seemed like the only true "party crashers" but when Illinois is a bubble team it seemed like there was more. You can argue Washington and St. Mary's might have been bubble teams if they hadn't won but they clearly each had a case to make the field. Oh well, this will be Illinois's first NIT bid since 1996 (Lou Henson's last year and just after I graduated). And they are a #1 seed, which still sounds cool. Maybe we can win it. Then again, Penn State won last year's NIT and they were awful this year. Penn State, Iowa, and Indiana being so horrible probably in part contributed to our poor RPI (and all of the Big 10's, Ohio State's and Michigan State's weren't even in the top 25 as of Sunday morning).

According to the brackets in the Bracket Matrix, there were 83 brackets. Minnesota was on 69 of the brackets and were the second last in. Forget the talk about expansion, maybe it's time to go back to 64 teams. Last year, there were 64 mostly consensus picks and the last one was the one that there was a huge difference of opinion. This year was the same.

Mississippi State - 32 brackets
Virginia Tech - 30 brackets
Illinois - 27 brackets
Florida -19 brackets

Could you imagine the discussion about the last pick? Remember Mississippi State played in the SEC final and it went overtime. That would leave us less than three hours to choose the last team. Of course, leave it to the NCAA to choose clearly the 4th choice and to put them as a 10 seed. Then again, they did improve over last year when Arizona was chosen on just 8 brackets yet made the NCAA's.

As for the seedings, I had West Virginia over Duke although the majority of the brackets had Duke as the last #1. My unofficial count was 53 for Duke and 30 for West Virginia. Seeing Duke get the third #1 was interesting although I think it's a non issue if you think about it. Would playing Kansas or Kentucky in the semifinals make much of a difference? And while Salt Lake City is a long trip for Syracuse, Houston would be as well.

I had Georgetown over Villanova for the final 2 seed with their run to the conference final. The committee had Villanova. Georgetown was the last #2 according to the Matrix. I had clearly underrated Villanova (had them as a #4 seed). The Matrix had Villanova, New Mexico, Temple, and Baylor (although Baylor's average seed was closer to 4 than 3) as the four 3 seeds (I had Purdue and Pitt as 3's instead of Villanova and Baylor). The Matrix's #4's were Purdue, Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, and Tennessee). The only change I had from the matrix's Sweet 16 was I had Michigan State instead of Tennessee (the NCAA's had Vanderbilt and Maryland instead of Temple (who the Matrix had as a 3) and Tennessee (the NCAA made them a 6). I was very surprised and disappointed Temple was a 5 seed although in theory 4's and 5's aren't usually much different.

Compared to the matrix, my overseeded and underseeded (more than one seed off):
Marquette (I had them as an 11, matrix had them an 8)
UNLV (I had them as a 12, matrix had them a 9)

San Diego State (I had them as a 7, matrix had them a 9)
Old Dominion (I had them as an 8, matrix had them a 10)

NCAA vs Matrix (unlike other people, instead of assuming the NCAA is right, I assume the Matrix is right - 83 outnumbers 10 you know)

Marquette (NCAA had them a 6, matrix had them an 8)
Notre Dame (NCAA had them a 6, matrix had them an 8)
Wake Forest (NCAA had them a 9, matrix had them an 11)

Temple (NCAA had them a 5, matrix had them a 3)
Northern Iowa (NCAA had them a 9, matrix had them a 7)
San Diego State (NCAA had them an 11, matrix had them a 9)

Ironically, Marquette and San Diego State were on both lists. I don't like that the overseeded and underseeded lists for the NCAA's seem to follow a pattern of BCS conferences being overseeded and other conferences being underseeded. I was actually shocked at Marquette's 6. After the East bracket was listed and they said Notre Dame was still waiting, I went down who was still left and found Notre Dame, Villanova, and Louisville hadn't been chosen. I was thinking that one of them had been left out since had they put 8 teams in they would likely spread them 2 in each conference. Well, the South had 3 Big East teams instead. The Big East was loaded with not only 8 bids but 7 teams seeded 6 or higher and 5 teams seeded 3 or higher. This is why the teams aren't more spread out. The seeds were 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 6, 6, and 9. You had to put two of the top 5 together and it makes more sense to put a 3 with a 1 than a 2 (2 and 3 meet in the Sweet 16). With 6 teams in bottom half seeds, you had to force two pairs teams to meet in the Sweet 16). I read somewhere the committee tried to pair teams that met once (Villanova and Notre Dame and West Virginia and Marquette). By contrast, Villanova and Marquette met twice in the regular season and also in the tournament). They could've moved Marquette and Notre Dame up to 5's I guess. Or down to 8's (where they probably should've been).

You can either place the top four seeds in the region with regard to S-Curve or with regard to geography. I tended to to it by geography this year and the NCAA seemed to do so as well (except for moving New Mexico to the East). Did the committee do West Virginia a favor keeping them in the East with Kentucky rather than pair the Mountaineers with Duke (assuming West Virginia was the #5 on the S-Curve, they would never pair Syracuse and West Virginia 1-2 in the same region). Or they could have put Duke in the East and Kentucky in the South. I think having the worst #1 and worst #2 in the same bracket seemed unfair. Baylor also seems like a weak #3 but then again they may be playing in Houston. I have to think that the Midwest was the hardest with Kansas, Ohio State, Georgetown, Maryland, Michigan State, and Tennessee as the top 6, which is ironic considering Kansas is the overall #1. Another thing that surprised me a little was Kentucky assigned to New Orleans. The main ones I saw had the Cats in Milwaukee. It also cost Kentucky the right to host the play in winner (Kansas was disqualified since they were at a Thur/Sat site). Maybe they should've let Syracuse get the play in winner anyway since Buffalo is a lot closer to Dayton than Jacksonville is). Of course it could just be everything favoring Duke.

And my condolences to those of you sent to Spokane. Well except for Houston and New Mexico State. You should be happy you're even in the field, you can't be picky. Then again, Spokane is a step up from last year (Boise).

Tune in later this week for Schmolik Bracket Analysis! Don't pick your bracket without first looking at Schmolik Bracket Analysis!

Schmolik

Sunday, March 14, 2010

Final 2010 Schmolik 64 Comments

Hello, college basketball fans!

My final Schmolik 64 is complete. Here's my rationale behind my picks.

West Virginia got the last #1 seed over Duke. Winning the Big East tournament was in my opinion bigger than winning the ACC tournament. In addition, West Virginia also has wins over Villanova (at Villanova), Georgetown, and Pittsburgh. Similar logic holds as Georgetown is my last #2 seed over New Mexico. Despite their rough stretch, they won 6 games over teams in the top 15 RPI.

On the end, it came down to Illinois, Mississippi State, Rhode Island, Virginia Tech, and Florida. I'm sure most people have cried favoritism but I posted two polls on CBS Sports.com comparing the last few bubble teams. Illinois won both polls, one with the names and one with "blind resumes". Illinois was chosen despite having by far the highest RPI of the five teams. So technically I didn't pick Illinois, the fans at CBS Sports did. If the committee continues to go with "quality wins" as a big deciding factor, Illinois has three wins over top 25 teams, more than the other four teams combined. They also have the most top 50 wins (five). I think it's going to come down to these five for the last spot. I don't think Illinois should get in over Minnesota (Minnesota is also in).

Schmolik

Final 2010 Schmolik 64

2010 Schmolik 64

Hello, college basketball fans!

Welcome to the Final 2010 Schmolik 64!

Regional matchups in the Final Four are Midwest vs West and East vs South

Automatic bids in CAPS

MIDWEST REGIONAL (St. Louis, MO Fri/Sun March 26-28)

Oklahoma City, OK (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
1 KANSAS (32-2) vs 16 WINTHROP (17-13)
8 Gonzaga (25-8) vs 9 WASHINGTON (24-9)

San Jose, CA (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
5 Richmond (26-7) vs 12 Unlv (24-8)
4 Villanova (24-7) vs 13 MURRAY STATE (28-4)

Jacksonville, FL (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
6 Maryland (22-8) vs 11 SIENA (27-6)
3 Pittsburgh (24-8) vs 14 UC SANTA BARBARA (19-9)

Milwaukee, WI (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
7 SAN DIEGO STATE (23-8) vs 10 Utah State (26-7)
2 OHIO STATE (27-7) vs 15 HOUSTON (18-15)

WEST REGIONAL (Salt Lake City, UT Thur/Sat March 25-27)

Buffalo, NY (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
1 WEST VIRGINIA (27-6) vs 16 VERMONT (25-9)
8 Georgia Tech (21-12) vs 9 Missouri (22-10)

New Orleans, LA (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
5 Vanderbilt (23-8) vs 12 Texas El Paso (26-6)
4 Michigan State (24-8) vs 13 CORNELL (25-4)

San Jose, CA (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
6 Xavier (24-8) vs 11 Louisville (20-12)
3 New Mexico (29-4) vs 14 MONTANA (20-9)

Oklahoma City, OK (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
7 NORTHERN IOWA (28-4) vs 10 Wake Forest (19-10)
2 Kansas State (25-6) vs 15 NORTH TEXAS (22-8)

EAST REGIONAL (Syracuse, NY Thur/Sat March 25-27)

Milwaukee, WI (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
1 KENTUCKY (32-2) vs 16 Play In Winner: LEHIGH (22-10) vs ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF (17-15)
8 Clemson (21-10) vs 9 Notre Dame (23-11)

Spokane, WA (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
5 Texas A&M (22-9) vs 12 NEW MEXICO STATE (21-11)
4 Wisconsin (23-8) vs 13 OHIO (20-14)

Providence, RI (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
6 Brigham Young (28-5) vs 11 Minnesota (21-13)
3 TEMPLE (27-5) vs 14 WOFFORD (26-8)

Providence, RI (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
7 Texas (24-9) vs 10 Florida State (22-9)
2 Georgetown (23-10) vs 15 ROBERT MORRIS (23-11)

SOUTH REGIONAL (Houston, TX Fri/Sun March 26-28)

Buffalo, NY (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
1 Syracuse (28-4) vs 16 E. TENNESSEE STATE (19-14)
8 OLD DOMINION (26-8) vs 9 ST. MARY'S (25-5)

Spokane, WA (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
5 Tennessee (25-8) vs 12 Illinois (19-14)
4 Baylor (24-7) vs 13 OAKLAND (24-8)

New Orleans, LA (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
6 BUTLER (25-4) vs 11 Marquette (22-11)
3 Purdue (27-5) vs 14 SAM HOUSTON STATE (21-7)

Jacksonville, FL (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
7 Oklahoma State (22-10) vs 10 California (23-10)
2 DUKE (29-5) vs 15 MORGAN STATE (27-9)

Big East: 8
Big 12: 7
Big 10: 6
ACC: 6
MWC: 4
SEC: 3
A-10: 3
Pac 10: 2
WCC: 2
C-USA: 2
WAC: 2
One bid: 20

Last Team In: Illinois

Just Missed: Mississippi State, Virginia Tech, Rhode Island, Florida

Schmolik

Final Schmolik Bubble Watch (3/14/10)

Schmolik Bubble Watch

Hello, college basketball fans!

Updated: March 14, 2010

It's time for Schmolik's Bubble Watch. For many teams, this is a make or break week. Bubble Watch analyzes who is on the bubble and their chances of making the NCAA's.

First, teams that I feel are locks for the tournament. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind during the week. Automatic Bids not included. (* Still alive for automatic bid).

ACC: Duke*, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech*
A-10: Temple*, Xavier, Richmond*
Big East: Syracuse, West Virginia*, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown*, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame
Big 10: Ohio State*, Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Minnesota*
Big 12: Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri
C-USA: Texas El Paso
MWC: New Mexico, Brigham Young, UNLV*, San Diego State*
Pac 10: California
SEC: Kentucky*, Vanderbilt, Tennessee,
WAC: Utah State*
WCC: Gonzaga

Bubble Teams Still Alive for Automatic Bid
SEC: Mississippi State

Total # Locks: 34
Minimum # At Large Locks: 33
Automatic Bids: 31
Remaining Bids: 1
As of Now: 5 teams in contention. If Mississippi State wins, they are the one.

RPI Data courtesy of CBSSports.com as of March 14, 2010 morning.

RPI/ Conf or Non Conf RPI: Good RPI is 30's or higher, marginal is 40's, poor is 50's or below.
*Last 10 games: 7-3 or better is a strength, 5-5 or lower a weakness.
SOS/Non Conf SOS: Good is top 20, bad is below 100.
Top 25 games: Strength: Two or more, Weakness: Zero
Top 50 games: Strength: Four or more, Weakness: One or fewer
Bad losses: Weakness: Home losses to teams below 100 in RPI, Loss to teams below 200 in RPI

* CBSSports.com lists “Last 10” in their RPI data. Although the last 10 games or last 12 games has been removed as an official criteria, the official bracket procedures state “chronological results” are considered so a poor or strong finish may still matter.

Bubble Teams (In/Out as of Last Schmolik 64 Update)

ACC

Virginia Tech (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (40)
Weaknesses: RPI (59), Non Conf RPI (98), Non Conf SOS (339!), no Top 25 wins

Tournament Result: Lost ACC 1st round game to Miami (seeded 12th in conference).

Atlantic 10

Rhode Island (Out)

Strengths: RPI (40), Conf RPI (5!)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (81), 4-6 in last 10 games, no top 25 wins, only one top 50 win

Tournament Result: Lost A-10 SF game to Temple

Outlook:

Big 10

Illinois (Out)

Strengths: Three Top 25 wins (Vanderbilt, at Wisconsin, vs Wisconsin in Big 10 tournament), Five Top 50 wins
Weaknesses: RPI (74), Non Conf RPI (124), Non Conf SOS (111), 4-6 in last 10 games, Bubble Loss: Home to Minnesota

Tournament Result: Lost Big 10 SF game to Ohio State (double OT)

Outlook:

SEC

Florida (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (37), Bubble Wins (Mississippi State),

Weaknesses: RPI (56), Non Conf RPI (78), Non Conf SOS (110), 4-6 in last 10 games, Bubble Loss (vs Mississippi State in SEC Tournament), Bad Loss: Home vs South Alabama

Tournament Update: Lost to Mississippi State in the SEC SF.

Mississippi State (Out)

Strengths: Bubble Wins: vs Florida in SEC Tournament, Sweep over Mississippi

Weaknesses: RPI (54), Non Conf RPI (69), Non Conf SOS (208), Bubble loss: at Florida, Bad Loss: Home vs Rider

Should Be In If: Only way to be 100% sure is to win
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses

Schmolik

Saturday, March 13, 2010

Schmolik Bubble Watch (3/13/10 AM) - Updated RPI #'s

Schmolik Bubble Watch

Hello, college basketball fans!

Updated: March 12, 2010

It's time for Schmolik's Bubble Watch. For many teams, this is a make or break week. Bubble Watch analyzes who is on the bubble and their chances of making the NCAA's.

First, teams that I feel are locks for the tournament. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind during the week. Automatic Bids not included. (* Still alive for automatic bid).

ACC: Duke*, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech*
A-10: Temple*, Xavier*, Richmond*
Big East: Syracuse, West Virginia*, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown*, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame
Big 10: Ohio State*, Purdue*, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas*, Kansas State*, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri
C-USA: Texas El Paso*
MWC: New Mexico, Brigham Young, UNLV*, San Diego State*
Pac 10: California*
SEC: Kentucky*, Vanderbilt*, Tennessee*
WAC: Utah State*
WCC: Gonzaga

Bubble Teams Still Alive for Automatic Bid
A-10: Rhode Island
Big 10: Minnesota, Illinois
Pac 10: Washington
SEC: Mississippi State

Party Crashers Still Alive for Automatic Bid
ACC: Miami, NC State
C-USA: Houston
WAC: New Mexico State

Total # Locks: 35 (not counting Big East, Big 12, and MWC champs)
Minimum # At Large Locks: 29
Automatic Bids: 31
Remaining Bids: 5
As of Now: 7 teams in contention. I may return some teams to consideration between now and Sunday.

Stats courtesy of CBSSports.com. Rankings are as of March 12, 2010 morning.

Thursday/Early Friday Update: Butler now automatic bid, Marquette, Notre Dame, Utah State, UNLV added to locks. Arizona State, Seton Hall, South Florida removed.

Friday Update: Mississippi removed from consideration. Kent State added to bubble list.

RPI/ Conf or Non Conf RPI: Good RPI is 30's or higher, marginal is 40's, poor is 50's or below.
*Last 10 games: 7-3 or better is a strength, 5-5 or lower a weakness.
SOS/Non Conf SOS: Good is top 20, bad is below 100.
Top 25 games: Strength: Two or more, Weakness: Zero
Top 50 games: Strength: Four or more, Weakness: One or fewer
Bad losses: Weakness: Home losses to teams below 100 in RPI, Loss to teams below 200 in RPI

* CBSSports.com lists “Last 10” in their RPI data. Although the last 10 games or last 12 games has been removed as an official criteria, the official bracket procedures state “chronological results” are considered so a poor or strong finish may still matter.

Bubble Teams (In/Out as of Last Schmolik 64 Update)

ACC

Virginia Tech (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (39), Bubble wins: at Georgia Tech
Weaknesses: RPI (56), Non Conf RPI (100), Non Conf SOS (342!), no Top 25 wins

Tournament Result: Lost ACC 1st round game to Miami (seeded 12th in conference).

Outlook: As of Friday AM, Virginia Tech’s RPI was 52. Expect it to drop after losing to Miami. Great ACC profile (although loss to Miami hurts), horrible non conference profile. If the Selection Committee wishes to make a statement about non conference scheduling, look for the Hokies to get the shaft. If Georgia Tech upsets Miami, don’t be surprised if Georgia Tech passes Virginia Tech in the ACC pecking order.

Atlantic 10

Rhode Island (Out)

Strengths: RPI (38), Non Conf RPI (5!)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (85), 5-5 in last 10 games, no top 25 wins, only one top 50 win

Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final, beating Temple
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose to Temple

Outlook: If the A-10 will get another at large bid, it will be Rhode Island. They have the highest RPI, a terrific non conference RPI, and wins over Dayton and Charlotte.

Big East

No Bubble Teams

Big 10

Illinois (Out)

Strengths: Three Top 25 wins (Vanderbilt, at Wisconsin, vs Wisconsin in Big 10 tournament), Five Top 50 wins
Weaknesses: RPI (69), Non Conf RPI (123), Non Conf SOS (105), 5-5 in last 10 games (including 5 of last 7), Bubble Loss: Home to Minnesota

Should Be In If: They make the Big 10 final, beating Ohio State
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose.

Outlook: Clearly have only one strength (quality wins), but it’s the one that the NCAA (at least according to almost everyone in the media) seems to like the most and teams have in the past gotten away with poor RPI numbers and poor finishes if they have a few quality wins. The RPI did crack the top 70 although still a very questionable RPI (and a loss to Ohio State probably drops it below 70 although I imagine not by much). Minnesota winning throws a wrench into things as the closer the two get in profile, you have to give the edge to Minnesota.

Minnesota (Out)

Strengths: Two Top 25 wins (vs Butler, Wisconsin), Four Top 50 wins
Weaknesses: RPI (68), Conf RPI (61), Non Conf RPI (74), Bad Losses: at Indiana, Home to Michigan

Should Be In If: They make the Big 10 final, beating Purdue.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose.

Outlook: With a lot of teams falling out, Minnesota is making a last ditch case to get in. They clearly have the top wins and even better a win at Illinois. In many ways, they are just like Illinois, lousy RPI numbers but good wins. Those bottom feeder Big 10 teams really hurt the Big 10 in RPI, not only Illinois and Minnesota but Ohio State and Michigan State (not even in the top 25). In conference, Illinois did finish a game ahead and had a tougher Big 10 RPI/SOS. Here’s a couple of scenarios I didn’t think were possible at the start of the week: 1) Minnesota would be the 5th Big 10 team instead of Illinois, 2) The Big 10 could actually get SIX teams in the NCAA’s. Hey, why not? Should Illinois and Minnesota play in the Big 10 final, can you say only the winner gets in?

Big 12
No Bubble Teams

Conf USA

No Bubble Teams

MWC

No bubble teams.

Pac 10

Washington (In)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (23), 8-2 in last 10 games, Two top 25 wins (Texas A&M, California)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (67), Bad Losses: Home to USC and Home to Oregon

Should Be In If: Probably can’t be sure unless they win it all.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose.

Outlook: The way things are going for Washington, it looks like they should be in. Certainly Stanford’s upset helped them win but prevented the Huskies from getting a quality win. Of course they can remove all doubt by winning over Cal.

SEC

Florida (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (37), Bubble Wins (Mississippi State),

Weaknesses: RPI (54), Non Conf RPI (77), Non Conf SOS (107), 4-6 in last 10 games, Bubble Loss (vs Mississippi State in SEC Tournament), Bad Loss: Home vs South Alabama

Tournament Update: Lost to Mississippi State in the SEC SF.

Outlook: Florida had beaten Mississippi State in the regular season already but in Gainesville. You would think MSU’s win in the SEC would be worth more. Still, considering Mississippi State had a bye helped. In addition, while Florida beat Michigan State and Florida State, Mississippi State has no top 25 wins. I’m not convinced that MSU is an automatic over Florida. The worst thing that happened Friday to the Gators was them losing to Mississippi State. The second worst thing probably was Minnesota beating Michigan State. It put Minnesota into bubble consideration and took away one of Florida’s Top 25 wins, leaving them just Tennessee.

Mississippi State (Out)

Strengths: Bubble Wins: vs Florida in SEC Tournament, Sweep over Mississippi

Weaknesses: RPI (63), Conf RPI (51), Non Conf RPI (71), Non Conf SOS (209), no top 25 wins, just one top 50 win, Bubble loss: at Florida, Bad Loss: Home vs Rider

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses

Outlook: See Florida. While I don’t think it’s a done deal Mississippi State will be considered ahead of Florida, I guarantee they will be considered ahead of Ole Miss or there will be a lot of bad blood in that state between the two schools this upcoming year.

Other

None

Schmolik

Schmolik Bubble Watch (3/13/10 - Early Morning)

Hello, college basketball fans!

I don't have updated RPI numbers and a lot of games were played yesterday so I will give you the short summary of my current bubble situation.

I feel San Diego State's win over New Mexico and Georgia Tech's win over Maryland put both of them in the field. Missisippi's loss in my (although not Jerry Palm's) mind removes them from bubble consideration. Meanwhile, many teams won yesterday to improve their cases which I feel knock out Wichita State and Kent State from at large consideration. My latest bubble has 7 teams competiting for a maximum of 5 spots (which could shrink if UTEP or Utah State loses or if somehow Miami or NC State wins the ACC). As a huge fan of one of these seven teams, I now have to root for the party crashers to lose. Let me warn Houston, New Mexico State, Miami, and NC State in advance, if you get in, I'm sending you to Spokane. I'm saying it now. I will do whatever I can do to send you there. If you're going to crash the party, you better be happy to go there. You're not getting a trip to California or Florida or New Orleans or some place nice. Then again, at least it's not Boise. Chances are also good that if you are the last team or last two teams I will put you in Spokane as well.

Teams that are still alive in conference tournaments:
Rhode Island
Washington
Mississippi State
Minnesota
Illinois

Teams done, waiting:
Florida
Virginia Tech

Friday, March 12, 2010

Schmolik Bubble Watch - Fri 3/12/10 6pm

Schmolik Bubble Watch

Hello, college basketball fans!

Updated: March 12, 2010

It's time for Schmolik's Bubble Watch. For many teams, this is a make or break week. Bubble Watch analyzes who is on the bubble and their chances of making the NCAA's.

First, teams that I feel are locks for the tournament. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind during the week. Automatic Bids not included.

ACC: Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest
A-10: Temple, Xavier, Richmond
Big East: Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame
Big 10: Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri
C-USA: Texas El Paso
MWC: New Mexico, Brigham Young, UNLV
Pac 10: California
SEC: Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
WAC: Utah State
WCC: Gonzaga

Total # Locks: 35 (Big East and Big 12 Champs guaranteed from the “locks”)
Minimum # At Large Locks: 27
Automatic Bids: 31
Remaining Bids: 7
As of Now: 11 teams in contention. I may return some teams to consideration between now and Sunday.

Stats courtesy of CBSSports.com. Rankings are as of March 12, 2010 morning.

Thursday/Early Friday Update: Butler now automatic bid, Marquette, Notre Dame, Utah State, UNLV added to locks. Arizona State, Seton Hall, South Florida removed.

Friday Update: Mississippi removed from consideration. Kent State added to bubble list.

RPI/ Conf or Non Conf RPI: Good RPI is 30's or higher, marginal is 40's, poor is 50's or below.
*Last 10 games: 7-3 or better is a strength, 5-5 or lower a weakness.
SOS/Non Conf SOS: Good is top 20, bad is below 100.
Top 25 games: Strength: Two or more, Weakness: Zero
Top 50 games: Strength: Four or more, Weakness: One or fewer
Bad losses: Weakness: Home losses to teams below 100 in RPI, Loss to teams below 200 in RPI

* CBSSports.com lists “Last 10” in their RPI data. Although the last 10 games or last 12 games has been removed as an official criteria, the official bracket procedures state “chronological results” are considered so a poor or strong finish may still matter.

Bubble Teams (In/Out as of Last Schmolik 64 Update)

ACC

Virginia Tech (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (32), 6-4 in last 10 (after today’s loss), Bubble wins: at Georgia Tech
Weaknesses: RPI: 52, Non Conf RPI (98), Non Conf SOS (339!), no Top 25 wins

Tournament Result: Lost ACC 1st round game to Miami (seeded 12th in conference).

Outlook: As of Friday AM, Virginia Tech’s RPI was 52. Expect it to drop after losing to Miami. Great ACC profile (although loss to Miami hurts), horrible non conference profile. If the Selection Committee wishes to make a statement about non conference scheduling, look for the Hokies to get the shaft. If Georgia Tech upsets Miami, don’t be surprised if Georgia Tech passes Virginia Tech in the ACC pecking order.

Georgia Tech (In)

Strengths: Four Top 50 wins (including Duke), Overall SOS (20)

Weaknesses: 4-6 in last 10 games, Non Conf SOS (148), Bubble Losses (Home vs Virginia Tech, Neutral vs Dayton), Conference Record (7-9), although still in Top 50 in Conference RPI

Should Be In If: They beat Maryland, making the ACC SF.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose to Maryland in the ACC QF.

Outlook: RPI numbers are respectable, but sub .500 conference record could haunt them. Then again, given the bad losses by Wake Forest and Clemson on Thursday, at least give Georgia Tech for winning a game (vs. North Carolina and I’d imagine a bunch of rowdy Tar Heel fans).

Atlantic 10

Rhode Island (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (5!), Bubble Wins: at Dayton, Charlotte (if you consider them a bubble team)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (104), 5-5 in last 10 games, no top 25 wins, only one top 50 win

Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final, beating Temple
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose to Temple

Outlook: If the A-10 will get another at large bid, it will be Rhode Island. They have the highest RPI, a terrific non conference RPI, and wins over Dayton and Charlotte. If a fourth at large comes from the A-10, you would expect the Rams to be that team.

Dayton (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (14), Non Conf SOS (20)

Weaknesses: RPI (52), Conf RPI (89), 5-5 in last 10 games

Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the A-10 SF, beating Xavier.

Outlook: Needs to beat Xavier to have any chance, still would have a hard time justifying a bid over Rhode Island (who beat Dayton at Dayton).

Big East

No Bubble Teams

Big 10

Illinois (Out)

Strengths: Four Top 25 wins (Vanderbilt, Michigan State, at Wisconsin, vs Wisconsin in Big 10 tournament)
Weaknesses: RPI (75), Non Conf RPI (124), Non Conf SOS (105), 5-5 in last 10 games (including 5 of last 7)

Should Be In If: They make the Big 10 final, beating Ohio State
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose.

Outlook: Clearly have only one strength (quality wins), but it’s the one that the NCAA (at least according to almost everyone in the media) seems to like the most and teams have in the past gotten away with poor RPI numbers and poor finishes if they have a few quality wins. I can’t imagine Illinois gets in with an RPI in the 70’s. Let’s see how much the RPI goes up after beating Wisconsin and lose to Ohio State. If it gets into the mid 60’s, they may get some consideration.

Big 12
No Bubble Teams

Conf USA

No Bubble Teams

MWC

San Diego State (In)

Strengths: RPI (32), Non Conf RPI (38), 8-2 in last 10 games

Weaknesses: Non Conf SOS (125), Bubble Loss: at Arizona State

Should Be In If: Makes the MWC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses in the MWC SF

Outlook: With Arizona State, UAB, Memphis, and Kent State choking on Thursday, I find it ridiculous for anyone to say this is not a tournament team. I did say they would be comfortably in if they make the final but I’ll leave them on the bubble to be consistent with earlier this week. The loss by Arizona State in the Pac 10 tournament probably widens the gap between the two so the head to head loss shouldn’t be a factor anymore.

Pac 10

Washington (In)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (23), 8-2 in last 10 games, Two top 25 wins (Texas A&M, California)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (67), Bad Loss: Home to Oregon

Should Be In If: Probably can’t be sure unless they win it all.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the Pac 10 final.

Outlook: Well the path should be clearer for Washington to make the final (then again if Stanford beat ASU, they can certainly beat Washington). In some ways, Washington had a better profile than the Sun Devils anyway (Washington beat Cal and Texas A&M). It’s pretty clear if Washington makes the final they will be considered the 2nd best Pac 10 team and if more bubble teams trip on their feet this week, you have to say making the final and losing to Berkeley will be enough for the Huskies (no, not the U Conn Huskies).

SEC

Florida (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (31), Bubble Wins (Mississippi State), Two Top 25 wins (Michigan State, Tennessee)

Weaknesses: RPI (51), Non Conf RPI (77), Non Conf SOS (106), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bad Loss: Home vs South Alabama

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC SF and loses to Vanderbilt or makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses next game to Mississippi State or SF to Mississippi

Outlook: Losing to either of the Mississippi schools would hurt their chances as it gives either a chance to pass them in the SEC pecking order.

Mississippi State (Out)

Strengths: Bubble Wins: Sweep over Mississippi

Weaknesses: RPI (68), Conf RPI (58), Non Conf RPI (70), Non Conf SOS (211), 5-5 in last 10 games, no top 25 wins, Bubble loss: at Florida, Bad Loss: Home vs Rider

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Florida

Outlook: I’ll leave them in for now even though their only strength is their sweep over Ole Miss, which I feel removed themselves from consideration after losing to Tennessee because their profile probably improves if they beat Florida. If they lose to Florida, they will likely fall out.

Other


Wichita State (Out)

Strengths: Conf RPI (37)
Weaknesses: Just one top 50 win (Northern Iowa), Non Conf RPI (86), Non Conf SOS (288!), Bad losses (at Evansville)

Tournament Result: Lost to Northern Iowa in MVC final

Outlook: Honestly only a really weak bubble is keeping them in the discussion. Finishing 2nd in the MVC and beating Northern Iowa is probably the only positive they have and that non conference SOS is terrible. They don’t even have “strong finish” in their basket. Should a lot of bubble teams win this week, I will likely take them off the bubble list. So far so good for the Shockers.

Kent State (In because of automatic bid)

Strengths: Non Conf SOS (26), 8-2 in last 10 games, regular season MAC champion, Bubble Win: UAB (if they are still a bubble team)
Weaknesses: Conf RPI (56), No top 25 wins, one top 50 win, Bad losses: Home vs Green Bay, Home vs Bowling Green

Tournament Road: Lost to Ohio in MAC QF’s (1st game played).
Outlook: I’m running out of teams here so I added them. They did win the regular season MAC title. The only team in the top 54 (as of Friday) that is not either in automatically, a lock, or a bubble team is UAB, who Kent State beat. I thought they suffered a bad loss. Ohio’s RPI was over 100 but just barely. It didn’t hurt their overall RPI as much as I thought. I think they are a long shot but a few more chokers and maybe they can still make it in.

Teams who I feel can play themselves into the tournament with a good week (list is not all inclusive). Teams previously listed that were eliminated have been removed.

Big 10: Minnesota

Schmolik

Schmolik Bubble Watch (Update 3/12/10 Early Morning)

Schmolik Bubble Watch

Hello, college basketball fans!

Updated: March 12, 2010

It's time for Schmolik's Bubble Watch. For many teams, this is a make or break week. Bubble Watch analyzes who is on the bubble and their chances of making the NCAA's.

First, teams that I feel are locks for the tournament. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind during the week. Automatic Bids not included.

ACC: Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest
A-10: Temple, Xavier, Richmond
Big East: Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame
Big 10: Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri
C-USA: Texas El Paso
MWC: New Mexico, Brigham Young, UNLV
Pac 10: California
SEC: Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
WAC: Utah State
WCC: Gonzaga

Total # Locks: 37
Minimum # At Large Locks: 27
Automatic Bids: 31
Remaining Bids: 7
As of Now: 11 teams in contention

Stats courtesy of CBSSports.com. Rankings are as of March 11, 2010 morning.

Thursday Update: Butler now automatic bid, Marquette, Notre Dame, Utah State added to locks. Arizona State, Seton Hall, South Florida removed.

Early morning Friday Update: UNLV added to locks

RPI/ Conf or Non Conf RPI: Good RPI is 30's or higher, marginal is 40's, poor is 50's or below.
*Last 10 games: 7-3 or better is a strength, 5-5 or lower a weakness.
SOS/Non Conf SOS: Good is top 20, bad is below 100.
Top 25 games: Strength: Two or more, Weakness: Zero
Top 50 games: Strength: Four or more, Weakness: One or fewer
Bad losses: Weakness: Home losses to teams below 100 in RPI, Loss to teams below 200 in RPI

* CBSSports.com lists “Last 10” in their RPI data. Although the last 10 games or last 12 games has been removed as an official criteria, the official bracket procedures state “chronological results” are considered so a poor or strong finish may still matter.

Bubble Teams (In/Out as of Last Schmolik 64 Update)

ACC

Virginia Tech (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (32), 7-3 in last 10, Bubble wins: at Georgia Tech
Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (98), Non Conf SOS (339!), no Top 25 wins

Should Be In If: They win one ACC tournament game
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose their first ACC game (losing to Miami would hurt)

Outlook: Great ACC profile, horrible non conference profile. If the Selection Committee wishes to make a statement about non conference scheduling, look for the Hokies to get the shaft. A win in the ACC should remove all doubt.

Georgia Tech (In)

Strengths: Four Top 50 wins (including Duke), Overall SOS (19)

Weaknesses: 4-6 in last 10 games, Non Conf SOS (153), Bubble Losses (Home vs Virginia Tech, Neutral vs Dayton), Conference Record (7-9), although still in Top 50 in Conference RPI

Should Be In If: They beat Maryland, making the ACC SF.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose to Maryland in the ACC QF.

Outlook: RPI numbers are respectable, but sub .500 conference record could haunt them. Then again, given the bad losses by Wake Forest and Clemson on Thursday, at least give Georgia Tech for winning a game (vs. North Carolina and I’d imagine a bunch of rowdy Tar Heel fans).

Atlantic 10

Rhode Island (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (5!), Bubble Wins: at Dayton, Charlotte (if you consider them a bubble team)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (101), 5-5 in last 10 games, no top 25 wins, only one top 50 win

Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the A-10 SF, maybe still alive if they lose to St. Louis in the A-10 QF.

Outlook: If the A-10 will get another at large bid, it will be Rhode Island. They have the highest RPI, a terrific non conference RPI, and wins over Dayton and Charlotte. I think they should at least be in the discussion now but beating Rhode Island will clearly establish them as the #4 team in the A-10.

Dayton (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (15), Non Conf SOS (20)

Weaknesses: 5-5 in last 10 games, RPI (51), Conf RPI (89)

Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the A-10 SF, beating Xavier.

Outlook: Needs to beat Xavier to have any chance, still would have a hard time justifying a bid over Rhode Island (who beat Dayton at Dayton).

Big East

No Bubble Teams

Big 10

Illinois (Out)

Strengths: Three Top 25 wins (Vanderbilt, Michigan State, at Wisconsin)
Weaknesses: RPI (73), Conf RPI (50), Non Conf RPI (123), 5-5 in last 10 games (including 5 of last 6)

Should Be In If: They make the Big 10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beat Wisconsin, most likely can’t afford to lose to either Iowa or Northwestern should either beat Ohio State.

Outlook: Clearly have only one strength (quality wins), but it’s the one that the NCAA (at least according to almost everyone in the media) seems to like the most and teams have in the past gotten away with poor RPI numbers and poor finishes if they have a few quality wins. I can’t imagine Illinois gets in with an RPI in the 70’s. Let’s see how much the RPI goes up if they beat Wisconsin and lose to Ohio State. If it gets into the mid 60’s, they may get some consideration. The Illini should also root for Clemson to do well to get into the RPI Top 25 and give Illinois another top 25 win and for Michigan State to at least maintain a Top 25 RPI. If they beat Wisconsin, they could potentially have five top 25 wins.

Big 12
No Bubble Teams

Conf USA

No Bubble Teams

MWC

San Diego State (In)

Strengths: RPI (34), Non Conf RPI (34), 8-2 in last 10 games

Weaknesses: Non Conf SOS (113), Bubble Loss: at Arizona State

Should Be In If: Makes the MWC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses in the MWC SF

Outlook: With Arizona State, UAB, Memphis, and Kent State choking on Thursday, I find it ridiculous for anyone to say this is not a tournament team. I did say they would be comfortably in if they make the final but I’ll leave them on the bubble to be consistent with earlier this week. The loss by Arizona State in the Pac 10 tournament probably widens the gap between the two so the head to head loss shouldn’t be a factor anymore.

Pac 10

Washington (In)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (23), 8-2 in last 10 games, Two top 25 wins (Texas A&M, California)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (67), Bad Loss: Home to Oregon

Should Be In If: Probably can’t be sure unless they win it all.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the Pac 10 final.

Outlook: Well the path should be clearer for Washington to make the final (then again if Stanford beat ASU, they can certainly beat Washington). In some ways, Washington had a better profile than the Sun Devils anyway (Washington beat Cal and Texas A&M). It’s pretty clear if Washington makes the final they will be considered the 2nd best Pac 10 team and if more bubble teams trip on their feet this week, you have to say making the final and losing to Berkeley will be enough for the Huskies (no, not the U Conn Huskies).

SEC

Florida (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (31), Bubble Wins (at Mississippi, Mississippi State), Two Top 25 wins (Michigan State, Tennessee)

Weaknesses: RPI (54), Non Conf RPI (75), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bad Loss: Home vs South Alabama

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC SF and loses to Vanderbilt or makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses next game to Mississippi State or SF to Mississippi

Outlook: Losing to either of the Mississippi schools would hurt their chances as it gives either a chance to pass them in the SEC pecking order.

Mississippi State (Out)

Strengths: Bubble Wins: Sweep over Mississippi

Weaknesses: RPI (67), Conf RPI (60), Non Conf RPI (73), Non Conf SOS (214), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bubble loss: at Florida, Bad Loss: Home vs Rider

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Florida

Outlook: I am seeing a lot of Mississippi in many brackets even though Mississippi State swept them and they tied in conference. To me, Mississippi has to clearly show they are better than MSU to overcome the head to head sweep. That being said, it’s a moot point unless they at least beat Florida. They didn’t beat any of the top four SEC East schools. I think the SEC should get rid of the top two in each division get byes and have the best four teams get byes (like the Big 12). Tennessee and Florida (or at least Tennessee) should have byes instead of the Mississippi schools.

Mississippi (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (31)

Weaknesses: RPI (57), Conf RPI (64), Non Conf SOS (138), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bubble Losses: Home vs Florida, Sweep to Mississippi State, Bad Loss: Home to Arkansas

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Tennessee
Outlook: Honestly I don’t see anything good about Mississippi’s profile. Clearly the win over Tennessee would help but I’m still skeptical, otherwise I better not see their name on Sunday. Should both MSU and Ole Miss win their SF games, I still think you have to take MSU first before Ole Miss.

Other


Wichita State (Out)

Strengths: Conf RPI (38)
Weaknesses: Just one top 50 win (Northern Iowa), Non Conf RPI (82), Non Conf SOS (286!), Bad losses (at Evansville)

Tournament Result: Lost to Northern Iowa in MVC final

Outlook: Honestly only a really weak bubble is keeping them in the discussion. Finishing 2nd in the MVC and beating Northern Iowa is probably the only positive they have and that non conference SOS is terrible. They don’t even have “strong finish” in their basket. Should a lot of bubble teams win this week, I will likely take them off the bubble list. So far so good for the Shockers.

Teams who I feel can play themselves into the tournament with a good week (list is not all inclusive). Teams previously listed that were eliminated have been removed.

Big 10: Minnesota

Schmolik

Thursday, March 11, 2010

Schmolik Bubble Update (Thur. 3/11 11:30pm)

Schmolik Bubble Watch

Hello, college basketball fans!

Updated: March 11, 2010

It's time for Schmolik's Bubble Watch. For many teams, this is a make or break week. Bubble Watch analyzes who is on the bubble and their chances of making the NCAA's.

First, teams that I feel are locks for the tournament. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind during the week. Automatic Bids not included.

ACC: Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest
A-10: Temple, Xavier, Richmond
Big East: Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame
Big 10: Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri
C-USA: Texas El Paso
MWC: New Mexico, Brigham Young
Pac 10: California
SEC: Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
WAC: Utah State
WCC: Gonzaga

Total # Locks: 36
Minimum # At Large Locks: 26
Automatic Bids: 31
Remaining Bids: 8
As of Now: 12 teams in contention

Stats courtesy of CBSSports.com. Rankings are as of March 11, 2010 morning.

Thursday Update: Butler now automatic bid, Marquette, Notre Dame, Utah State added to locks. Arizona State, Seton Hall, South Florida removed.

RPI/ Conf or Non Conf RPI: Good RPI is 30's or higher, marginal is 40's, poor is 50's or below.
*Last 10 games: 7-3 or better is a strength, 5-5 or lower a weakness.
SOS/Non Conf SOS: Good is top 20, bad is below 100.
Top 25 games: Strength: Two or more, Weakness: Zero
Top 50 games: Strength: Four or more, Weakness: One or fewer
Bad losses: Weakness: Home losses to teams below 100 in RPI, Loss to teams below 200 in RPI

* CBSSports.com lists “Last 10” in their RPI data. Although the last 10 games or last 12 games has been removed as an official criteria, the official bracket procedures state “chronological results” are considered so a poor or strong finish may still matter.

Bubble Teams (In/Out as of Last Schmolik 64 Update)

ACC

Virginia Tech (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (32), 7-3 in last 10, Bubble wins: at Georgia Tech
Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (98), Non Conf SOS (339!), no Top 25 wins

Should Be In If: They win one ACC tournament game
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose their first ACC game (losing to Miami would hurt)

Outlook: Great ACC profile, horrible non conference profile. If the Selection Committee wishes to make a statement about non conference scheduling, look for the Hokies to get the shaft. A win in the ACC should remove all doubt.

Georgia Tech (In)

Strengths: Four Top 50 wins (including Duke), Overall SOS (19)

Weaknesses: 4-6 in last 10 games, Non Conf SOS (153), Bubble Losses (Home vs Virginia Tech, Neutral vs Dayton), Conference Record (7-9), although still in Top 50 in Conference RPI

Should Be In If: They beat Maryland, making the ACC SF.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose to Maryland in the ACC QF.

Outlook: RPI numbers are respectable, but sub .500 conference record could haunt them.

Atlantic 10

Rhode Island (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (5!), Bubble Wins: at Dayton, Charlotte (if you consider them a bubble team)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (101), 5-5 in last 10 games, no top 25 wins, only one top 50 win

Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the A-10 SF, maybe still alive if they lose to St. Louis in the A-10 QF.

Outlook: If the A-10 will get another at large bid, it will be Rhode Island. They have the highest RPI, a terrific non conference RPI, and wins over Dayton and Charlotte. Would have to beat St. Joe’s at home for consideration and may have to beat St. Louis to at least get into the discussion.

Dayton (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (15), Non Conf SOS (20)

Weaknesses: 5-5 in last 10 games, RPI (51), Conf RPI (89)

Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the A-10 SF, beating Xavier.

Outlook: Needs to beat Xavier to have any chance, still would have a hard time justifying a bid over Rhode Island (who beat Dayton at Dayton) unless Rhode Island loses to St. Joe’s.

Big East

No Bubble Teams

Big 10

Illinois (Out)

Strengths: Three Top 25 wins (Vanderbilt, Michigan State, at Wisconsin)
Weaknesses: RPI (73), Conf RPI (50), Non Conf RPI (123), 5-5 in last 10 games (including 5 of last 6)

Should Be In If: They make the Big 10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beat Wisconsin, most likely can’t afford to lose to either Iowa or Northwestern should either beat Ohio State.

Outlook: Clearly have only one strength (quality wins), but it’s the one that the NCAA (at least according to almost everyone in the media) seems to like the most and teams have in the past gotten away with poor RPI numbers and poor finishes if they have a few quality wins. I can’t imagine Illinois gets in with an RPI in the 70’s. Let’s see how much the RPI goes up if they beat Wisconsin and lose to Ohio State. If it gets into the mid 60’s, they may get some consideration. The Illini should also root for Clemson to do well to get into the RPI Top 25 and give Illinois another top 25 win and for Michigan State to at least maintain a Top 25 RPI. If they beat Wisconsin, they could potentially have five top 25 wins.

Big 12
No Bubble Teams

Conf USA

No Bubble Teams

MWC

UNLV (In)

Strengths: 7-3 in last 10 games, Two Top 25 wins (at New Mexico, BYU), Four Top 50 wins

Weaknesses: Non Conference RPI (56), Non Conference SOS (202), Bad Loss: Home vs Utah

Should Be In If: Wins one MWC game.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose

Outlook: Pretty much avoid the bad loss and they should be OK. Surprising that their non conference profile is so bad (and that’s including a win vs Louisville). Do teams not want to go to Vegas anymore? They got swept by Utah this year, could a team outside the top 100 beat an NCAA contender three times in a year (UNLV opens the MWC vs Utah), especially on UNLV’s home court?

San Diego State (In)

Strengths: RPI (34), Non Conf RPI (34), 8-2 in last 10 games

Weaknesses: Non Conf SOS (113), Bubble Loss: at Arizona State

Should Be In If: Makes the MWC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses in the MWC SF

Outlook: A pretty good profile. I think a win and their chances are better than most people think. There isn’t much a reason to reject them and considering a weak bubble, they shouldn’t be rejected. Many teams were hoping St. Mary’s would not beat Gonzaga. San Diego State was probably indifferent and probably are better off without another bubble team that beat them earlier this year.

Pac 10

Washington (In)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (23), 8-2 in last 10 games, Two top 25 wins (Texas A&M, California)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (67), Bad Loss: Home to Oregon

Should Be In If: Probably can’t be sure unless they win it all.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the Pac 10 final.

Outlook: See Arizona State. The potential SF match vs. Arizona State would be a rubber match between the two. Washington has a little better non conference profile and did beat Cal (ASU didn’t). But it pretty much comes down to them or ASU and the only way the Pac 10 gets three is if someone upsets Cal and either Washington or Arizona State in the final and the party crasher, Cal, and either Washington or ASU gets in.

SEC

Florida (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (31), Bubble Wins (at Mississippi, Mississippi State), Two Top 25 wins (Michigan State, Tennessee)

Weaknesses: RPI (54), Non Conf RPI (75), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bad Loss: Home vs South Alabama

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC SF and loses to Vanderbilt or makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses next game to Mississippi State or SF to Mississippi

Outlook: Losing to either of the Mississippi schools would hurt their chances as it gives either a chance to pass them in the SEC pecking order.

Mississippi State (Out)

Strengths: Bubble Wins: Sweep over Mississippi

Weaknesses: RPI (67), Conf RPI (60), Non Conf RPI (73), Non Conf SOS (214), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bubble loss: at Florida, Bad Loss: Home vs Rider

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Florida

Outlook: I am seeing a lot of Mississippi in many brackets even though Mississippi State swept them and they tied in conference. To me, Mississippi has to clearly show they are better than MSU to overcome the head to head sweep. That being said, it’s a moot point unless they at least beat Florida. They didn’t beat any of the top four SEC East schools. I think the SEC should get rid of the top two in each division get byes and have the best four teams get byes (like the Big 12). Tennessee and Florida (or at least Tennessee) should have byes instead of the Mississippi schools.

Mississippi (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (31)

Weaknesses: RPI (57), Conf RPI (64), Non Conf SOS (138), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bubble Losses: Home vs Florida, Sweep to Mississippi State, Bad Loss: Home to Arkansas

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Tennessee
Outlook: Honestly I don’t see anything good about Mississippi’s profile. Clearly the win over Tennessee would help but I’m still skeptical, otherwise I better not see their name on Sunday. Should both MSU and Ole Miss win their SF games, I still think you have to take MSU first before Ole Miss.

Other


Wichita State (Out)

Strengths: Conf RPI (38)
Weaknesses: Just one top 50 win (Northern Iowa), Non Conf RPI (82), Non Conf SOS (286!), Bad losses (at Evansville)

Tournament Result: Lost to Northern Iowa in MVC final

Outlook: Honestly only a really weak bubble is keeping them in the discussion. Finishing 2nd in the MVC and beating Northern Iowa is probably the only positive they have and that non conference SOS is terrible. They don’t even have “strong finish” in their basket. Should a lot of bubble teams win this week, I will likely take them off the bubble list.

Teams who I feel can play themselves into the tournament with a good week (list is not all inclusive). Teams previously listed that were eliminated have been removed.

Big 10: Minnesota

Schmolik

Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Schmolik Bubble Watch (3/9/10)

Schmolik Bubble Watch

Hello, college basketball fans!

Updated: March 9, 2010 9pm ET

It's time for Schmolik's Bubble Watch. For many teams, this is a make or break week. Bubble Watch analyzes who is on the bubble and their chances of making the NCAA's.

First, teams that I feel are locks for the tournament. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind during the week. Automatic Bids not included.

ACC: Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest
A-10: Temple, Xavier, Richmond
Big East: Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville
Big 10: Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri
C-USA: Texas El Paso
Horizon: Butler
MWC: New Mexico, Brigham Young
Pac 10: California
SEC: Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
WCC: Gonzaga

Total # Locks: 34
Minimum # Locks: 24

Stats courtesy of CBSSports.com. Rankings are as of March 9, 2010 morning.

RPI/ Conf or Non Conf RPI: Good RPI is 30's or higher, marginal is 40's, poor is 50's or below.
*Last 10 games: 7-3 or better is a strength, 5-5 or lower a weakness.
SOS/Non Conf SOS: Good is top 20, bad is below 100.
Top 25 games: Strength: Two or more, Weakness: Zero
Top 50 games: Strength: Four or more, Weakness: One or fewer
Bad losses: Weakness: Home losses to teams below 100 in RPI, Loss to teams below 200 in RPI

* CBSSports.com lists “Last 10” in their RPI data. Although the last 10 games or last 12 games has been removed as an official criteria, the official bracket procedures state “chronological results” are considered so a poor or strong finish may still matter.

Bubble Teams (In/Out as of Last Schmolik 64 Update)

ACC

Virginia Tech (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (32), 7-3 in last 10, Bubble wins: at Georgia Tech
Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (98), Non Conf SOS (340!), no Top 25 wins

Should Be In If: They win one ACC tournament game
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose their first ACC game (although a loss to Wake Forest may not hurt that much, a loss to Miami would)

Outlook: Great ACC profile, horrible non conference profile. If the Selection Committee wishes to make a statement about non conference scheduling, look for the Hokies to get the shaft. A win in the ACC should remove all doubt.

Georgia Tech (In)

Strengths: Four Top 50 wins (including Duke), Overall SOS (19)

Weaknesses: 4-6 in last 10 games, Non Conf SOS (153), Bubble Losses (Home vs Virginia Tech, Neutral vs Dayton), Conference Record (7-9), although still in Top 50 in Conference RPI

Should Be In If: They beat Maryland, making the ACC SF.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose to Maryland in the ACC QF.

Outlook: RPI numbers are respectable, but sub .500 conference record could haunt them, especially if they lose their ACC opener to North Carolina.

Atlantic 10

Rhode Island (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (4!), Bubble Wins: at Dayton, Charlotte (if you consider them a bubble team)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (102), 5-5 in last 10 games, no top 256 wins, only one top 50 win

Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the A-10 SF, maybe still alive if they lose to St. Louis in the A-10 QF.

Outlook: If the A-10 will get another at large bid, it will be Rhode Island. They have the highest RPI, a terrific non conference RPI, and wins over Dayton and Charlotte. Would have to beat St. Joe’s at home for consideration and may have to beat St. Louis to at least get into the discussion.

Dayton (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (14), Non Conf SOS (20)

Weaknesses: 5-5 in last 10 games, RPI (52), Conf RPI (90)
Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the A-10 SF, beating Xavier.

Outlook: Needs to beat Xavier to have any chance, still would have a hard time justifying a bid over Rhode Island (who beat Dayton at Dayton) unless Rhode Island loses to St. Joe’s.

Big East

Marquette (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (35), 8-2 in last 10 games, two top 25 wins (vs Xavier, Georgetown), Bubble Win: at Seton Hall, South Florida

Weaknesses: RPI (58), Non Conf RPI (115), Non Conf SOS (203), Bubble Loss: Home vs Notre Dame, Bad Losses: Home vs NC State, at DePaul

Should Be In If: They beat St. John’s in next game.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose.

Outlook: The RPI is a big negative but their big wins, hot finish, and performance in conference (including win over Louisville) should be enough assuming they don’t blow it to St. John’s.

Notre Dame (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (38), Three Top 25 wins (West Virginia, Pittsburgh, at Georgetown), Bubble Wins (at Marquette, Sweep of South Florida)

Weaknesses: RPI (59), Non Conf RPI (97), Non Conf SOS (225), Bubble Loss: at Seton Hall, Bad Loss: Home to Loyola Marymount

Should Be In If: They beat Seton Hall in next game.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose.

Outlook: Very similar to Marquette, a loss to Seton Hall would be their 2nd this year and would have Seton Hall pass Notre Dame in the pecking order. That being said, don’t be surprised to see nine from the Big East if Seton Hall wins.

Seton Hall (Out)

Strengths: Conference RPI (40), Bubble Win: Notre Dame

Weaknesses: RPI (54), Non Conf RPI (77), Non Conf SOS (200), Bubble Loss: at South Florida

Should Be In If: They make the Big East SF, beating Providence, Notre Dame, and Pittsburgh.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They beat Providence.

Outlook: They will get consideration if they beat Providence but will be near the bottom of the bubble unless they beat Notre Dame. Another problem is South Florida, who has a similar profile and beat Seton Hall earlier. It could be a race for the two in this tournament as to who gets farther.

South Florida (Out)

Strengths: Two Top 25 wins (Pitt, at Georgetown), Bubble Win: Seton Hall

Weaknesses: RPI (63), Non Conf RPI (80), Non Conf SOS (229), Bubble Losses: Swept by Notre Dame, Bad Loss: Home to Central Michigan

Should Be In If: They make the Big East final.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They beat Georgetown.

Outlook: A very hard sell, beating Syracuse in the Big East QF may not be enough. They should get consideration head to head vs Seton Hall if they are close (but Seton Hall would get head to head over Notre Dame in a potential three way logjam between SH, ND, and USF if the Pirates beat the Irish.

Big 10

Illinois (Out)

Strengths: Three Top 25 wins (Vanderbilt, Michigan State, at Wisconsin)
Weaknesses: RPI (74), Conf RPI (51), Non Conf RPI (120), 5-5 in last 10 games (including 5 of last 6)

Should Be In If: They make the Big 10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beat Wisconsin, most likely can’t afford to lose to either Iowa or Northwestern should either beat Ohio State.

Outlook: Clearly have only one strength (quality wins), but it’s the one that the NCAA (at least according to almost everyone in the media) seems to like the most and teams have in the past gotten away with poor RPI numbers and poor finishes if they have a few quality wins. I can’t imagine Illinois gets in with an RPI in the 70’s. Let’s see how much the RPI goes up if they beat Wisconsin and lose to Ohio State. If it gets into the mid 60’s, they may get some consideration. The Illini should also root for Clemson to do well to get into the RPI Top 25 and give Illinois another top 25 win and for Michigan State to at least maintain a Top 25 RPI. If they beat Wisconsin, they could potentially have five top 25 wins.

Big 12
No Bubble Teams

Conf USA

Memphis (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (36), 8-2 in last 10 games, Bubble Wins: Sweep of UAB

Weaknesses: Non Conference RPI (90), No Top 25 wins, Bad Loss: at SMU

Should Be In If: They Make Conf USA Final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They win one Conf USA game

Outlook: Memphis should not be passed over in favor of UAB even if UAB beats them in the Conf USA SF since Memphis has beaten them twice already. That would be the only scenario I can consider any other team (other than UTEP) passing them in the Conf USA pecking order. They probably want to at least make the SF though and losing to anyone below UAB would be pretty bad as well. Another nightmare is if someone other than themselves or UTEP wins the tournament as UTEP would get an at large and Memphis will have to hope C-USA gets three bids.

UAB (Out)

Strengths: RPI (40), Non Conf RPI (18)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (59), 5-5 in last 10 games: Bubble Losses: Swept by Memphis, only one top 50 win (Butler)

Should Be In If: To feel safe, the only way would be to win it all
Should Be On the Bubble If: Makes the conference final

Outlook: Even a win over Memphis may not be enough to pass them in the pecking order (still 2-1 head to head) although making the final could add to the possibility of three bids in C-USA.

MWC

UNLV (In)

Strengths: 7-3 in last 10 games, Two Top 25 wins (at New Mexico, BYU), Four Top 50 wins

Weaknesses: Non Conference RPI (56), Non Conference SOS (191), Bad Loss: Home vs Utah

Should Be In If: Wins one MWC game.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose

Outlook: Pretty much avoid the bad loss and they should be OK. Surprising that their non conference profile is so bad (and that’s including a win vs Louisville). Do teams not want to go to Vegas anymore? They got swept by Utah this year, could a team outside the top 100 beat an NCAA contender three times in a year (UNLV opens the MWC vs Utah), especially on UNLV’s home court?

San Diego State (In)

Strengths: RPI (36), Non Conf RPI (35), 8-2 in last 10 games

Weaknesses: Non Conf SOS (105), Bubble Loss: at Arizona State

Should Be In If: Makes the MWC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Wins one MWC game.

Outlook: A pretty good profile. I think a win and their chances are better than most people think. There isn’t much a reason to reject them and considering a weak bubble, they shouldn’t be rejected (assuming they win one MWC game). Many teams were hoping St. Mary’s would not beat Gonzaga. San Diego State was probably indifferent and probably are better off without another bubble team that beat them earlier this year.

Pac 10

Arizona State (In)

Strengths: 8-2 in last 10 games, Bubble Wins - San Diego State

Weaknesses: RPI (53), Conf RPI (54), Non Conf RPI (55), No Top 25 wins

Should Be In If: Probably can’t be sure unless they win it all.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the Pac 10 final.

Outlook: The Pac 10 is weak and teams from the Pac 10 are really going to have to impress to make it. They have little chance at quality wins outside of beating Cal in the final (and then they would be in automatically). I can’t guarantee the winner of the potential SF between them and Washington will be in, but I can guarantee the loser won’t be. And if Arizona State loses before the final to anyone else, I can’t imagine them getting in either.

Washington (In)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (23), 8-2 in last 10 games, Two top 25 wins (Texas A&M, California)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (67), Bad Loss: Home to Oregon

Should Be In If: Probably can’t be sure unless they win it all.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the Pac 10 final.

Outlook: See Arizona State. The potential SF match vs. Arizona State would be a rubber match between the two. Washington has a little better non conference profile and did beat Cal (ASU didn’t). But it pretty much comes down to them or ASU and the only way the Pac 10 gets three is if someone upsets Cal and either Washington or Arizona State in the final and the party crasher, Cal, and either Washington or ASU gets in.

SEC

Florida (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (31), Bubble Wins (at Mississippi, Mississippi State), Two Top 25 wins (Michigan State, Tennessee)

Weaknesses: RPI (51), Non Conf RPI (71), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bad Loss: Home vs South Alabama

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC SF and loses to Vanderbilt or makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Wins 1st SEC game vs Auburn

Outlook: Losing to either of the Mississippi schools would hurt their chances as it gives either a chance to pass them in the SEC pecking order.

Mississippi State (Out)

Strengths: Bubble Wins: Sweep over Mississippi

Weaknesses: RPI (69), Conf RPI (61), Non Conf RPI (76), Non Conf SOS (222), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bubble loss: at Florida, Bad Loss: Home vs Rider

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Florida

Outlook: I am seeing a lot of Mississippi in many brackets even though Mississippi State swept them and they tied in conference. To me, Mississippi has to clearly show they are better than MSU to overcome the head to head sweep. That being said, it’s a moot point unless they at least beat Florida. They didn’t beat any of the top four SEC East schools. I think the SEC should get rid of the top two in each division get byes and have the best four teams get byes (like the Big 12). Tennessee and Florida (or at least Tennessee) should have byes instead of the Mississippi schools.

Mississippi (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (35)

Weaknesses: RPI (56), Conf RPI (65), Non Conf SOS (142), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bubble Losses: Home vs Florida, Sweep to Mississippi State, Bad Loss: Home to Arkansas

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Tennessee
Outlook: Honestly I don’t see anything good about Mississippi’s profile. Clearly the win over Tennessee would help but I’m still skeptical, otherwise I better not see their name on Sunday. Should both MSU and Ole Miss win their SF games, I still think you have to take MSU first before Ole Miss.

Other

Utah State (In)

Strengths: RPI (32), Conf RPI (33), 10-0 in last 10 games!, Bubble Win: Wichita State

Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (57)

Should Be In If: Avoids a bad loss in the WAC tournament
Should Be On the Bubble If: Takes a bad loss in the WAC tournament.

Outlook: Pretty close to a lock but win one game in the WAC to be entirely sure. At least they won’t have to compete with St. Mary’s for an at large (see San Diego State).

Wichita State (Out)

Strengths: Conf RPI (37)
Weaknesses: Just one top 50 win (Northern Iowa), Non Conf RPI (85), SOS (101), Non Conf SOS (285!), Bad losses (at Evansville)

Tournament Result: Lost to Northern Iowa in MVC final

Outlook: Honestly only a really weak bubble is keeping them in the discussion. Finishing 2nd in the MVC and beating Northern Iowa is probably the only positive they have and that non conference SOS is terrible. They don’t even have “strong finish” in their basket. Should a lot of bubble teams win this week, I will likely take them off the bubble list.

Teams who I feel can play themselves into the tournament with a good week (list is not all inclusive). Teams previously listed that were eliminated have been removed.

Big East: Cincinnati
Big 10: Minnesota

Schmolik

Schmolik 64 Update (3/9/10 Early Morning)

Hello, college basketball fans!

This is the next to last Schmolik 64 Update for 2010. Stay tuned on Championship Sunday for the final Schmolik 64. This bracket will list all 65 teams. For one bid conferences, I chose the highest seeded team remaining.

Records as of Monday night games.

Schedule:
1st/2nd: Thur/Sat March 18-20, Fri/Sun March 19-21
Regionals: Thur/Sat March 25-27, Fri/Sun March 26-28
* Automatic Bid to NCAA's

MIDWEST REGIONAL (St. Louis - Fri/Sun)
Oklahoma City, OK - Thur/Sat
1 Kansas (29-2) vs 16 Winthrop * (17-13)
8 Northern Iowa * (28-4) vs 9 California (21-9)

Spokane, WA - Fri/Sun
5 Georgetown (20-9) vs 12 Kent State (22-8)
4 Maryland (22-7) vs 13 Murray State * (28-4)

Jacksonville, FL - Fri/Sun
6 Xavier (23-7) vs 11 Siena * (27-6)
3 Pittsburgh (24-7) vs 14 Oakland (23-8)

Milwaukee, WI - Fri/Sun
7 Oklahoma State (21-9) vs 10 UNLV (22-7)
2 Purdue (26-4) vs 15 Troy (17-11)

WEST REGIONAL (Salt Lake City - Thur/Sat)

Jacksonville, FL - Fri/Sun
1 Duke (26-5) vs 16 Vermont (24-9)
8 Missouri (22-9) vs 9 Louisville (20-11)

Spokane, WA - Fri/Sun
5 Tennessee (23-7) vs 12 San Diego State (20-8)
4 Wisconsin (23-7) vs 13 Arizona State (22-9)

Providence, RI - Thur/Sat
6 Texas (23-8) vs 11 Virginia Tech (23-7)
3 Villanova (24-6) vs 14 Wofford * (25-8)

San Jose, CA - Thur/Sat
7 Gonzaga (25-6) vs 10 Utah State (24-6)
2 New Mexico (28-3) vs 15 UC-Santa Barbara (17-9)

Midwest vs West in Final Four, South vs East in Final Four

SOUTH REGIONAL (Houston - Fri/Sun)

Buffalo, NY - Fri/Sun
1 Syracuse (28-3) vs 16 Play In Winner - Lehigh (21-10) vs Jackson State (18-11)
8 Florida State (22-8) vs 9 Old Dominion * (26-8)

New Orleans, LA - Thur/Sat
5 Vanderbilt (22-7) vs 12 Memphis (23-8)
4 Texas A&M (21-8) vs 13 Cornell * (25-4)

Oklahoma City, OK - Thur/Sat
6 Butler (27-4) vs 11 Georgia Tech (18-11)
3 Kansas State (23-6) vs 14 Weber State (17-9)

Providence, RI - Thur/Sat
7 Richmond (24-7) vs 10 Marquette (20-10)
2 Ohio State (24-7) vs 15 Morgan State (24-9)

EAST REGIONAL (Syracuse, NY - Thur/Sat)

Milwaukee, WI - Fri/Sun
1 Kentucky (29-2) vs 16 Quinnipiac (23-8)
8 Wake Forest (19-9) vs 9 Texas El Paso (24-5)

San Jose, CA - Thur/Sat
5 Temple (26-5) vs 12 Notre Dame (21-10)
4 Michigan State (24-7) vs 13 Washington (21-9)

New Orleans, FL - Thur/Sat
6 BYU (27-4) vs 11 Florida (20-11)
3 Baylor (23-6) vs 14 Sam Houston State (18-7)

Buffalo, NY - Fri/Sun
7 Clemson (21-9) vs 10 St. Mary's * (25-5)
2 West Virginia (24-6) vs 15 E. Tennessee State * (19-14)

Big East: 8 (Syr, WV, Pitt, Vill, GTown, Lville, Marq, ND)
Big 12: 7 (Kan, KSU, Bay, A&M, Tex, OSU, Mo)
ACC: 7 (Duke, Md, Clem, FSU, WF, VaT, GaT)
Big 10: 4 (Pur, OSU, MSU, Wisc)
SEC: 4 (Ky, Vbilt, Tenn, Fla)
MWC: 4 (NM, BYU, UNLV, SDSt)
A-10: 3 (Temp, Xav, Rich)
Pac-10: 3 (Cal, ASU, Wash)
C-USA: 2 (UTEP, Mem)
WCC: 2 (Gonz, St. M)

Remaining: 21 (Horizon, MVC/N Iowa, Colonial/ODU, WAC, Metro Atl/Siena, MAC, Ivy/Cornell, Ohio V/Murray State, Big Sky, Summit, Southern/Wofford, S'land, AtlSun/E Tenn State, MEAC, Sun Belt, Big West, Big South/Winthrop, Northeast, America East, Patriot, SWAC)

Other at large candidates: Rhode Island, UAB, Wichita State, Seton Hall, South Florida, Illinois (RPI is in the 70's but have 4 top 50 wins, 3 top 25 and Clemson, which is close).

No bracket updates this week until the final bracket but stay tuned for bubble updates and other blog entries.

Friday, March 5, 2010

What to Watch For This Weekend

Hello, college basketball fans!

With the regular season winding down, here's games this weekend that may affect the bracket.

ACC:

Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech, Sat 4pm (Battle of Tech's)

In a year the ACC lost to the Big 10 in the ACC-Big 10 challenge, it's going to be hard to believe they will get seven in the dance. If you are looking for one of the seven contenders to exclude, look no further than this game. A loss (a home loss) for the Jackets, and they are 7-9 in conference. While Va. Tech would be 9-7 with a loss (ahead of 8-8 Georgia Tech), consider that in the ACC schedule they played these five teams twice: UNC, Mia, BC, Va, NCSt. None of those teams are in the NCAA discussion! They only would have wins over Clemson and Wake Forest, both at home. And their non conference schedule was pathetic.

North Carolina at Duke, Sat 9pm

Only on this list because, hey, it's UNC/Duke. And should Duke lose, they can kiss their #1 seed chances goodbye. BTW, the last two times Duke hosted UNC on Senior Day (2006 and 2008), they lost. North Carolina has won the last five regular season finales.

Clemson at Wake Forest, Sun 6pm

Clemson should be safe, win or lose. Jerry Palm of CBS said the committee took out last 12 games as a criteria but you don't need a "last 12" stat to know the Demon Deacons are struggling late and a loss here could really hurt their NCAA chances.

A-10:

Richmond at Charlotte, Sat 2pm

Last ditch effort for Charlotte. Not sure they are even in the discussion now but a win would give them a sweep over the Spiders (Charlotte won in Richmond already) and they also beat Temple so don't count them out yet.

Rhode Island at Massachusetts, Sat 4pm

Rhode Island saved their season beating Charlotte and now lead Charlotte in the A-10 pecking order. But a loss to UMass and it won't matter.

St. Louis at Dayton, Sat 7pm

The road has been unkind to Dayton. Luckily, this one's at home. And they do need this game in the worst way.

Big East:

West Virginia at Villanova, Sat noon (CBS)

With Duke and Kansas State losing on Wednesday, the winner of this game could be in the discussion for a #1 seed (or definitely for position in the Big East pecking order). Villanova won the first game in Morgantown on the road.

Cincinnati at Georgetown, Sat 2pm

Someone has to win this game, right? Georgetown isn't in bubble territory but their seed is plummeting. This is Cincinnati's last chance at a marquee win (although who hasn't beaten Georgetown these days?) before the Big East tournament.

Syracuse at Louisville, Sat 2pm

Syracuse is a fairly solid #1 (especially since there aren't many candidates left to replace them). The game is mostly for Louisville's seed because I think they are most likely in. Remember Louisville gave Syracuse one of their two losses (in the Carrier Dome, no less).

Notre Dame at Marquette, Sat 2pm

Why do I have a feeling every Big East ref will be busy at 2pm this Saturday? Notre Dame is guaranteed a .500 record in conference, a steal at Marquette would make them 10-8 and in great position for an at large bid. A loss and I think they are in the discussion but their RPI is still kind of high (in the 60's according to CBSSports.com).

Connecticut at South Florida, Sat ... you guessed it, 2pm

Big loss for Connecticut at Notre Dame. They now sit at 7-10 in conference. A loss and they are four games below .500 in conference. I don't believe any team in the last decade (2000-2009) has received an at large bid that was four games below .500 in conference. By the way, I don't think any team in the Big East last decade received an at large bid with a losing record so U Conn's chances are slim already.

Seton Hall at Providence, Sat .... NOT at 2pm! (7pm)

A tough road game and a must win for Seton Hall to stay in bubble contention. Providence was a 3 pointer from upsetting Pitt.

Big 10:

Wisconsin at Illinois, Sun 2pm

Illinois needs at least win and possibly two to warrant at large consideration. Might as well start here against a Badger team they upset in Madison earlier in the season.

Big 12:

Kansas at Missouri, Sat 2pm (CBS)

Pretty sure Missouri is in the tournament already, but should the Tigers win, watch that RPI and those mock bracket seeds skyrocket (look at Oklahoma State last week).

MWC:

San Diego State at Air Force, Sat 9pm

San Diego State is one of those teams that are one side of the bubble or the other in almost everyone's bracket. Air Force is pathetic. San Diego State loses just showing up at Air Force in terms of RPI. If they lose? I think you know the answer.

SEC:

Tennessee at Mississippi State - Sat. 6pm

Last chance for MSU before the tournament for a signature in conference win. Of the top four teams in the SEC East, the Bulldogs haven't beaten any of them. Expect that to come up in the conversation should MSU lose to Tennessee. The head to head loss at Florida also hurts them although there may be a chance for payback in the SEC tournament.

Florida at Kentucky, Sun noon (CBS)

Well no one expects Florida to win. Unfortunately it will keep them on the bubble heading into the tournament.

Others:

Kent State at Akron - Fri. 8pm

A rare Friday night game. They are playing for 1st place in the MAC (Eastern Division, currently tied with Akron). Kent's RPI is in range for at large consideration, but it's hard to justify one if they didn't win their conference.

UAB at Texas El Paso - Sat. 9:05pm

Don't look now, but Memphis passed UAB in the conference standings, the RPI gap between the two has shrunk, and Memphis has a head to head sweep over UAB. I was thinking about should Memphis be the 2nd team from C-USA instead of UAB. Now I'm sure of it. But if UAB beats UTEP in El Paso (and if Memphis loses at home to Tulsa), that could change things.

MWC Tournament (Final Sun 2pm on CBS).

Northern Iowa has a good resume for an at large team, bubblers around the country should hope N. Iowa wins out.