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2011 Schmolik Bracket Analysis

2011-03-15T17:34:00.001-04:00

Hello, college basketball fans!

Now there are two annual traditions every March in terms of the NCAA Tournament.

First I post my bracket before the tournament as to who I think and/or deserve to make the NCAA Tournament.

My second annual tradition is breaking down the actual bracket and picking who will win. I like to call it "Schmolik Bracket Analysis"!

SOUTHWEST REGIONAL

An annual tradition if mine during Schmolik Bracket Analysis is to begin with the regional my alma mater and beloved Illinois Fighting Illini are in (assuming they are in). This year, that is the Southwest Regional.

The season for Illinois began with high expectations and a big win over North Carolina but Illinois slumped. After not being in the tournament last year, it's great just to be in the tournament. Illinois will try to win its first game since 2006.

They will face a familiar face in UNLV coach Lon Kruger. Younger Illini fans don't remember but Kruger was Illinois's coach before he left for the NBA, failed (just like John Calipari and Rick Pitino) and landed at UNLV. If Illinois wins, they will play another former Illini coach in Bill Self (assuming Kansas doesn't become the first No. 1 seed ever to lose to a No. 16).

Recently, Illinois hasn't beaten anyone really good (Iowa and Indiana don't count). I would rather play UNLV than some Big East team (we had an 11 out of 68 chance in drawing one so we got lucky!) but I just don't have much faith in them.

Besides, even if Illinois wins, how much of a chance do we have against Kansas anyway? Then again, if I had to play one of the No. 1 seeds in the "third" round, I would want Kansas. Kansas as a No. 1 seed has lost in the "second" round several times, including last season.

Speaking of Kansas, before Self was Illinois's coach he was Tulsa's coach (I really am old!) So it is a homecoming of sorts for Self in the "second and third" round games. Now Self has not fared too well in the state of Oklahoma in the NCAA Tournament. The last two times Kansas played in Oklahoma were 2005 (1st round loss to No. 14 seed Bucknell) and last year (2nd round loss to No. 9 Northern Iowa). But those two games were in Oklahoma City, not Tulsa.

Vanderbilt is trying to buck a recent trend. They lost their last two NCAA Tournament games as No. 4 seeds to No. 13's. This year, Vanderbilt plays Atlantic 10 champion Richmond, who I think is underseeded as a No. 12. If you are looking for a 5-12 upset to pick, I think this is a good one.

In the bottom half of the Southwest, we have my favorite nickname in recent memory, the St. Peter's Peacocks! When's the last time there were Peacocks in the NCAA's? They are catching Purdue at a good time with Purdue having lost their last two games but I hope Purdue shows up and defends the Big Ten Conference honor. The last thing I want is Purdue losing their first game (actually the worst would be Ohio State losing their first game!)

This year introduces "play in" games for at large teams. We know the chances of a No. 16 play in game winner beating a No. 1 seed is slim and none. But a No. 11 seed beating a No. 6 is not out of the realm of possibility.

Will the play in game tire out the winner? Does No. 6 seed Georgetown have an advantage or a disadvantage over the other No. 6 seeds? This is another reason I hate the 68 team format. The play in game among No. 16 seeds doesn't really affect the tournament that much but this could disturb the competitive balance in the NCAA's one way or the other.

This season, I don't think either USC or VCU belongs in the Tournament so I hope Georgetown destroys whoever they play and redeem themselves for last year's debacle vs. Ohio. Georgetown's Chris Wright has been cleared to play. The Hoyas certainly didn't play well in his absence. If Georgetown plays like they did earlier this season, Purdue (and the rest of the bottom half of the bracket) are in trouble.

In the NCAA Tournament this year, a lot of eyes will be on the Big East. Were their 11 bids deserved (I think they were regardless of the outcome)? But will all that competition during the regular season and at Madison Square Garden help the schools in the tournament?

Meanwhile, you have Kansas playing in the Big 12 Conference. I think they are overrated. They've only beaten one team that is top four seed in the tournament, a win over a slumping Texas in Kansas City (might as well been in Lawrence). I am picking Rick Pitino's Louisville Cardinals (they beat Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, and Syracuse this year) to "upset" the Jayhawks.

I'm going all Big East in the regional final. I like a rematch of the semifinal between Notre Dame and Louisville and for Ben Hansbrough to be cutting the nets down. Notre Dame will advance to its first Final Four since 1978.

Regional Final: Notre Dame over Louisville

SOUTHEAST REGIONAL

I think this is the weakest regional of them all. We have by far the weakest No. 2 seed, a Brandon Davies less BYU as a No. 3 seed, and a No. 4 seed Wisconsin that couldn't break 40 against Penn State.

This regional is full of sleepers. We have perennial bracket busters in Gonzaga and Butler along with Utah State and Old Dominion. I don't know if you can call Michigan State a sleeper but we all know Tom Izzo knows how to coach in the NCAA Tournament.

I don't like seeing mid majors meet in the first game. To me it's like when Boise State and TCU met in the Fiesta Bowl. You want to see David vs. Goliath, not David vs. David. I will say that whoever wins between Butler and Old Dominion is going to give Pitt quite a battle in the "third" round.

This is the 13th year in a row Gonzaga made the NCAA Tournament. They are playing St. John's, a team that last made the tournament in 2002. This looks like an upset to me if you can call it an upset. I also like Utah State to win in another 5-12 upset over a Kansas State team that lost three times to Colorado.

The big mystery of the Southeast is BYU. They haven't played too many games without Brandon Davies but they did lose badly to New Mexico at home and lost to a San Diego State team they swept in the regular season.

BYU was dealt a very hard potential second game in Gonzaga. Gonzaga is back in the role of underdog. The No. 11 seed is Gonzaga's lowest since 2001. It's going to be a hard game for BYU to win. If the Cougars and Bulldogs don't meet this year, expect to see them twice next year in the WCC.

I think Gonzaga has a great chance to make the Sweet 16 and a potential Sweet 16 game vs. Florida. The two met in the Sweet 16 in 1999 when a late basket by Gonzaga prompted Gus Johnson to call "The Slipper Still Fits!".

Of course, Florida will have its own problem with a possible second game with Michigan State. Many times the Spartans exceed expectations (last year's Final Four run was as a No. 5 seed). Florida is playing in Tampa. However, Florida played Michigan State in Tampa in 2003 and the Spartans pulled off an upset of the No. 2 (and overseeded) Gators. Of course, since then Florida and Billy Donovan has won two national championships.

If you asked me the two best coaches in college basketball who have never made the Final Four, I would say Pittsburgh's Jamie Dixon and Gonzaga's Mark Few. I hope one of them finally makes it there this year.

In a conference with national champion winning coaches Jim Boeheim, Jim Calhoun, and Rick Pitino, Dixon is often overlooked. Yet, in his eight seasons at Pittsburgh Dixon's team has won ten or more Big East games each season. Pitt won two Big East regular season championships and one Big East Tournament in that span. Making the Final Four will hopefully give Dixon the respect he deserves.

Pittsburgh's road to the Final Four looks very winnable although Old Dominion or Butler will give them fits. The Panthers should be favored in every game. If they play like they have all season, they will be heading to Houston.

Final Pick: Pittsburgh over Florida.

WEST REGIONAL

I have graduated from three schools, Illinois, Penn State, and Temple. Since I graduated from Temple, this is the first year all three schools made the NCAA Tournament in the same year.

Of course Penn State and Temple play their first game against each other. Well, I know one of my schools is going to win. Penn State's last tournament appearance was 2001. They stunned North Carolina to make the Sweet 16 and lost in the Sweet 16 to Temple.

Fran Dunphy has led Temple to the last three NCAA Tournaments but they lost in the first round each year (including last year's upset at the hands of Cornell). For Penn State, making the NCAA's is a victory already so I want to see Temple and Dunphy finally win one.

The winner of the Pennsylvania clash (from Tucson, Arizona of all places) is expected to play San Diego State in the next round. It's a winnable game for either school and had they played closer to Pennsylvania I probably would pick the upset. It's hard for teams from the East Coast to go out west and win against West Coast teams.

There are a couple of dangerous sleepers teams in this regional.

One of them is the Golden Grizzlies of Oakland. Oakland has played seven NCAA Tournament teams this year (including a win over Tennessee in Knoxville) and will not be intimidated by the Longhorns. Should Texas win, they could meet Arizona in a great "third" round matchup. Arizona and Memphis will pit two coaches making their first NCAA appearance for perennial NCAA elite programs.

Don’t forget about Bucknell. The Bison stunned Kansas in the 2005 NCAA Tournament (and won a game in 2006 as well). They face a talented but likely exhausted Connecticut Huskies team (they won five games in five days to win the Big East Tournament).

Should UConn advance as expected, their next opponent could very well be Big East rival Cincinnati. It seems weird to see two teams from the same conference meeting this early in the tournament but it's hard to spread out 11 conference opponents. I personally think conference foes shouldn't meet until the Sweet 16 and not be allowed to meet in the opening weekend.

At the top half is a Duke. Duke will open in Charlotte, NC. If they advance as expected, they will make a rare trip to the West Coast. Assuming Duke beats Hampton (no No. 16 seed has ever beaten a No. 1), Michigan or Tennessee would be a road block in the Blue Devils' way. Michigan is on a roll now and Tennessee is slumping but I would not count Bruce Pearl out this time of year. If it is Duke vs. Michigan, that will be a rematch of the 1992 NCAA Championship (the Fab Five vs. Christian Laettner, Bobby Hurley, and Grant Hill).

In the Sweet 16, normally UConn vs. San Diego State is an easy call. But I'm wondering if the Huskies are tired or have peaked and of course a west coast trip to face a nearby school (the game would be in Anaheim) is never good (although UConn has made the Final Four out of the West Regional three times).

I would like to see a Duke/Connecticut regional final. I do not like Duke that much and UConn is Duke's biggest nemesis in the NCAA Tournament. But I have a feeling San Diego State will advance and will lose to Duke in the final. I told you about Duke vs. Michigan in 1992. That team was coached by current San Diego State's head coach Steve Fisher.

Final Pick: Duke over San Diego State.

EAST REGIONAL

If before the bracket was announced I said I was picking Ohio State, North Carolina, Syracuse, and Kentucky to make the Final Four, you would think they were good picks.

Well, I can't pick those four. They are all in the East Regional, making it my pick for the toughest regional this year. Only one (possibly none) of them will be in the Final Four. I like all four of these programs so I should be happy with whoever advances unless we have some lower seed make it.

Back in the NCAA's is 2006 Final Four surprise team George Mason. They play a completely struggling Villanova team that lost its last five games including an embarrassing loss to Big East doormat South Florida in the Garden.

Last year, Kentucky and West Virginia met in the East Regional final for the right to advance to the Final Four. This year, they would potentially meet in the opening weekend for a chance to make the Sweet 16. We find in this pod the other play in game for at large teams between Clemson and UAB. The winner will have to fly to Tampa to play its second game.

We could have another third round game between Big East foes if Syracuse wins and Marquette beats Xavier. Don’t count out the Musketeers though as they have made the Sweet 16 the last three years running. Xavier will have their hands full with likely opponent Syracuse to make it four years in a row.

Also playing in Charlotte with Duke will be North Carolina. I’m sure both teams’ fans will come out to cheer against their rivals as well as cheer for their own team this weekend.

If the top four seeds hold, there will be some great games next weekend in Newark between North Carolina and Syracuse and between Ohio State and Kentucky.

It wouldn’t surprise me to see the higher seeded team win every game (best chance of an “upset” would be Xavier over Syracuse).

Final Pick: Ohio State over North Carolina.

FINAL FOUR

So my Final Four picks are Ohio State, Duke, Notre Dame, and Pittsburgh. I almost never pick all four No. 1 seeds so Kansas is my pick to get upset. The regional Ohio State has is loaded so it wouldn't surprise me if they lost either.

I think I heard Charles Barkley say on CBS that early round games in the NCAA's are won by players and later round games are won by coaches. Two of these coaches (Mike Brey and Jamie Dixon) will make their first appearance in the Final Four if my picks are all correct. Thad Matta coached Ohio State to the Final Four in 2007.

But if coaching decides it, there is only one choice to win the championship. In the first semifinal, I like Pittsburgh to gain revenge over Notre Dame. You can't always count on freshmen in the tournament, so I'll take Duke. Unfortunately for those who don't like Duke, I think it will be a repeat.

Championship Pick: Duke over Pittsburgh

Final 2011 Schmolik 64 Bracket

2011-03-13T20:52:00.003-04:00

Hello, college basketball fans!

I know this is after the fact, but this bracket was posted on my CBS site and at Bleacher Report before the bracket was posted.

EAST REGIONAL (Newark, NJ Fri./Sun. March 25-27)

Cleveland, OH (Fri./Sun. March 18-20)

No. 1 Ohio State* (32-2) vs. No. 16 First Four???

No. 8 UNLV (24-8) vs. No. 9 Villanova (21-11)

Denver, CO (Thur./Sat. March 17-19)

No. 5 Arizona (27-7) vs. No. 12 Harvard (21-6)

No. 4 Syracuse (26-7) vs. No. 13 First Four???

Washington, DC (Thur./Sat. March 17-19)

No. 6 Vanderbilt (23-10) vs. No. 11 Richmond* (27-7)

No. 3 Connecticut* (26-9) vs. No. 14 St. Peter's* (20-13)

Charlotte, NC (Fri./Sun. March 18-20)

No. 7 Texas A&M (23-8) vs. No. 10 Michigan (19-13)

No. 2 North Carolina (26-7) vs. No. 15 Boston University* (21-13)

SOUTHWEST REGIONAL (San Antonio, TX Fri./Sun. March 25-27)

Tulsa, OK (Fri./Sun. March 18-20)

No. 1 Kansas* (32-2) vs. No. 16 UNC-Asheville* (16-13)

No. 8 Washington* (23-10) vs. No. 9 Gonzaga* (22-9)

Tucson, AZ (Thur./Sat. March 17-19)

No. 5 West Virginia (20-11) vs. No. 12 Princeton* (24-6)

No. 4 Wisconsin (23-8) vs. No. 13 Indiana State* (19-13)

Washington, DC (Thur/Sat March 17-19)

No. 6 Old Dominion* (27-6) vs. No. 11 Illinois (19-13)

No. 3 Louisville (25-9) vs. No. 14 Bucknell* (25-8)

Tampa, FL (Thur./Sat. March 17-19)

No. 7 Temple (25-7) vs. No. 10 Marquette (20-14)

No. 2 Kentucky* (25-8) vs. No. 15 Wofford* (21-12)

SOUTHEAST REGIONAL (New Orleans, LA Thur./Sat. March 24-26)

Charlotte, NC (Fri./Sun. March 18-20)

No. 1 Duke* (30-4) vs. No. 16 Hampton* (23-8)

No. 8 George Mason (26-6) vs. No. 9 Missouri (22-10)

Tampa, FL (Thur/Sat March 17-19)

No. 5 St. John’s (21-11) vs. No. 12 Memphis* (25-9)

No. 4 Florida (26-7) vs. No. 13 Oakland* (24-9)

Denver, CO (Thur./Sat. March 17-19)

No. 6 Kansas State (21-10) vs. No. 11 Michigan State (18-14)

No. 3 BYU (29-4) vs. No. 14 Morehead State* (22-9)

Chicago, IL (Fri./Sun. March 18-20)

No. 7 Xavier (24-7) vs. No. 10 Tennessee (19-14)

No. 2 Notre Dame (26-6) vs. No. 15 Akron* (22-12)

WEST REGIONAL (Anaheim, CA Thur./Sat. March 24-26)

Cleveland, OH (Fri./Sun. March 18-20)

No. 1 Pittsburgh (27-5) vs. No. 16 First Four???

No. 8 Butler* (22-9) vs. No. 9 UCLA (22-10)

Chicago, IL (Fri./Sun. March 18-20)

No. 5 Georgetown (21-10) vs. No. 12 First Four???

No. 4 Purdue (25-7) vs. No. 13 Belmont* (30-4)

Tulsa, OK (Fri./Sun. March 18-20)

No. 6 Cincinnati (25-8) vs. No. 11 Florida State (21-10)

No. 3 Texas (27-7) vs. No. 14 LIU-Brooklyn* (27-5)

Tucson, AZ (Thur./Sat. March 17-19)

No. 7 Utah State* (29-3) vs. No. 10 Penn State (19-14)

No. 2 San Diego State* (30-2) vs. No. 15 Northern Colorado* (19-10)

First Four Games

All games in Dayton, OH

Automatic Bids

Tue. March 15 6:30pm

East Regional No. 16 : Tex-San Antonio* (16-13) vs. Ark Little Rock* (17-16)

Winner plays Ohio State in Cleveland, OH Fri. March 18

Wed. March 16 6:30pm

West Regional No. 16 - Alabama State* (15-17) vs. UC Santa Barbara* (16-13)

Winner plays Pittsburgh in Cleveland, OH Fri. March 18

Last Four Teams In

Tue. March 15 9pm

East Regional No. 13: Alabama (21-11) vs. Missouri State (25-8)

Winner plays Syracuse in Denver, CO Thur. March 17

Wed. March 16 9pm

West Regional No. 12: Colorado (20-13) vs. UAB (22-8)

Winner plays Georgetown in Chicago, IL Fri. March 18

Bubble Burst

Cleveland State, St. Mary's, Georgia, Virginia Commonwealth, Clemson, Boston College, Virginia Tech (sorry Seth!), USC

Final Four Matchups

East vs. West

Southwest vs. Southeast

No. 1 seeds (in order):

1. Ohio State (East)

2. Kansas (Southwest)

3. Duke (Southeast)

4. Pittsburgh (West)

Bids By Conference

Big East: 11

Big Ten: 7

Big 12: 6

SEC: 5

ACC: 3

Pac-10: 3

A-10: 3

MWC: 3

Colonial: 2

Conference USA: 2

Ivy: 2

Missouri Valley: 2

One bid conferences: 19

Thanks for reading!

Schmolik 64 Update (3/9/11)

2011-03-09T16:54:00.001-05:00

Hello, college basketball fans!

Welcome to the March 9, 2011 update of the Schmolik 64.

Small tweaks from the Monday update to include the auto bids from the last two days and the first day of the Big East Tournament. Villanova has to be considered a bubble team now after choking last night. Clearly they have reasons to be left out but they still have many quality wins as reasons to be left in. I don't have an updated RPI so I imagine a No. 10 seed would be about right.

Also, since Gonzaga is now officially in, one team had to get the boot. The last team I put in Monday was Memphis and one reason was they beat Gonzaga. Well since Gonzaga now is an automatic bid, Memphis loses the head to head edge in bubble competition and is eliminated.

Dates:

Opening Weekend: Thur/Sat March 17-19, Fri/Sun March 18-20

Regionals: Thur/Sat March 24-26, Fri/Sun March 25-27

* Clinched Automatic Bid

EAST REGIONAL (Newark, NJ - Fri/Sun)

Cleveland, OH (Fri/Sun)

(1) Ohio State (29-2) vs. (16) First Four: Bethune Cookman / MEAC (16-11) vs. McNeese State / Southland (15-10)

(8) UCLA (22-9) vs. (9) Butler * (22-9)
Washington, DC (Thur/Sat)

(5) Texas A&M (22-7) vs. (12) St. Mary's (22-7)

(4) Syracuse (25-6) vs. (13) First Four: Missouri State (25-8) vs. Virginia Tech (19-10)

Washington, DC (Thur/Sat)

(6) Temple (24-6) vs. (11) Michigan (18-12)

(3) Louisville (23-8) vs. (14) LIU-Brooklyn / Northeast (26-5)

Charlotte, NC (Fri/Sun)

(7) Connecticut (21-9) vs. (10) Georgia (20-10)

(2) North Carolina (24-6) vs. (15) St. Peter's* (20-13)

WEST REGIONAL (Anaheim, CA - Thur/Sat)

Chicago, IL (Fri/Sun)

(1) Notre Dame (25-5) vs. (16) Boston University / America East (20-13)

(8) Missouri (21-9) vs. (9) Tennessee (18-13)

Denver, CO (Thur/Sat)

(5) Arizona (25-6) vs. (12) Richmond (24-7)

(4) Wisconsin (23-7) vs. (13) Oakland* / Summit (22-9)

Tulsa, OK (Fri/Sun)

(6) Georgetown (21-9) vs. (11) Gonzaga * (23-9)

(3) Texas (25-6) vs. (14) Morehead State* / Ohio Valley (22-9)

Denver, CO (Thur/Sat)

(7) Vanderbilt (21-9) vs. (10) Illinois (19-12)

(2) Brigham Young (27-3) vs. (15) Long Beach State / Big West (18-10)

SOUTHEAST REGIONAL (New Orleans, LA - Thur/Sat)

Cleveland, OH (Fri/Sun)

(1) Pittsburgh (27-4) vs. (16) First Four: Arkansas-Little Rock* / Sun Belt (16-16) vs. Texas Southern / SWAC (18-11)

(8) UNLV (23-7) vs. (9) Florida State (21-9)

Tucson, AZ (Thur/Sat)

(5) Kansas State (21-9) vs. (12) Washington (20-10)

(4) Kentucky (22-8) vs. (13) Indiana State * / Missouri Valley (19-13)

Chicago, IL (Fri/Sun)

(6) Cincinnati (24-7) vs. (11) Harvard / Ivy (21-5)

(3) Purdue (25-6) vs. (14) Kent State / MAC (20-10)

Charlotte, NC (Fri/Sun)

(7) Old Dominion * (26-6) vs. (10) Villanova (21-10)

(2) Duke (27-4) vs. (15) Wofford * / Southern (21-12)

SOUTHWEST REGIONAL (San Antonio, TX - Fri/Sun)

Tulsa, OK (Fri/Sun)

(1) Kansas (29-2) vs. (16) UNC Asheville * / Big South (16-13)

(8) George Mason (26-6) vs. (9) UAB (22-7)

Tampa, FL (Thur/Sat)

(5) Xavier (24-6) vs. (12) First Four: Clemson (20-10) vs. Penn State (16-13)

(4) St. John's (20-10) vs. (13) Belmont * / Atlantic Sun (30-4)

Tampa, FL (Thur/Sat)

(6) West Virginia (20-10) vs. (11) Michigan State (16-13)

(3) Florida (24-6) vs. (14) Bucknell / Patriot (24-8)

Tucson, AZ (Thur/Sat)

(7) Utah State (27-3) vs. (10) Boston College (19-11)

(2) San Diego State (27-2) vs. (15) Northern Colorado / Big Sky (17-10)

By Seed (East/Southeast/Southwest/West)

1. Ohio State, Pittsburgh. Kansas, Notre Dame
2. North Carolina, Duke, San Diego State, BYU
3. Louisville, Purdue, Florida, Texas
4. Syracuse, Kentucky, St. John's, Wisconsin
5. Texas A&M, Kansas State, Xavier, Arizona
6. Temple, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Georgetown
7. Connecticut, Old Dominion*, Utah State, Vanderbilt
8. UCLA, UNLV, George Mason, Missouri
9. Butler*, Florida State, UAB, Tennessee
10. Georgia, Villanova, Boston College, Illinois
11. Michigan, Harvard, Michigan State, Gonzaga*
12. St. Mary's, Washington, Clemson/Penn State, Richmond
13. Missouri State/Virgina Tech, Indiana State*, Belmont*, Oakland*
14. LIU-Brooklyn, Kent State, Bucknell, Morehead State*
15. St. Peter's*, Wofford*, Northern Colorado, Long Beach State
16. Bethune Cookman/McNeese State, Ark Little Rock*/Texas Southern, UNC Asheville*, Boston University

RPI Numbers according to CBS Sports RPI:

Lowest RPI at large berth: Virginia Tech (65)

Lowest RPI at large berth, non First Four: Michigan (56)

Highest RPI not selected: Memphis (38)

RPI in top 50 not selected: Memphis (38), Cleveland State (41), Colorado State (43), Virginia Commonwealth (T49), Princeton (T49)

RPI below 50 at large berths, non First Four: Michigan (56), Richmond (58)

First Four: Missouri State (42), Penn State (55), Clemson (60), Virginia Tech (65)

Bids By Conference:

Big East (10)

Big Ten (7)

ACC (6)

Big 12 (5)

SEC (5)

Pac-10 (3)

MWC (3)

A-10 (3)

Colonial (2)

WCC (2)

MVC (2)

One Team (for now): (20)

No. 1 Seed Ranks: No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Pittsburgh, No. 3 Kansas, No. 4 Notre Dame (East vs. West and Southeast vs. Southwest in Final Four)

Compare my brackets to CBS Sports Bracketology and others at the Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix.

Remember to comment! If you think a team or teams that are out should be in or vice versa, let me hear from you!

Schmolik 64 Update (3/7/11)

2011-03-07T15:24:00.001-05:00

Hello, college basketball fans!

Welcome to the March 7, 2011 update of the Schmolik 64.

This is the update for Championship Week so for the first time I will include all 64 teams. For one bid conferences, I will list the highest seed remaining in the conference. Keep in mind these seeds will go up or down depending on who wins at the end. Expect the final Schmolik 64 Sunday after the conclusion of the Big Ten Tournament.

Dates:

Opening Weekend: Thur/Sat March 17-19, Fri/Sun March 18-20

Regionals: Thur/Sat March 24-26, Fri/Sun March 25-27

* Clinched Automatic Bid

EAST REGIONAL (Newark, NJ - Fri/Sun)

Cleveland, OH (Fri/Sun)

(1) Ohio State (29-2) vs. (16) First Four: Bethune Cookman / MEAC (16-11) vs. McNeese State / Southland (15-10)

(8) UCLA (22-9) vs. (9) Tennessee (18-13)

Washington, DC (Thur/Sat)

(5) Texas A&M (22-7) vs. (12) Missouri State (25-8)

(4) Syracuse (25-6) vs. (13) First Four: Memphis (22-9) vs. Virginia Tech (19-10)

Washington, DC (Thur/Sat)

(6) Temple (24-6) vs. (11) Michigan (18-12)

(3) Louisville (23-8) vs. (14) Iona / MAAC (22-10)

Charlotte, NC (Fri/Sun)

(7) Connecticut (21-9) vs. (10) Butler (21-9)

(2) North Carolina (24-6) vs. (15) LIU-Brooklyn / Northeast (26-5)

WEST REGIONAL (Anaheim, CA - Thur/Sat)

Chicago, IL (Fri/Sun)

(1) Notre Dame (25-5) vs. (16) Boston University / America East (20-13)

(8) George Mason (26-6) vs. (9) Missouri (21-9)

Denver, CO (Thur/Sat)

(5) Arizona (25-6) vs. (12) Richmond (24-7)

(4) Wisconsin (23-7) vs. (13) Oakland / Summit (22-9)

Tulsa, OK (Fri/Sun)

(6) Georgetown (21-9) vs. (11) St. Mary's (22-7)

(3) Texas (25-6) vs. (14) Morehead State* / Ohio Valley (22-9)

Denver, CO (Thur/Sat)

(7) Vanderbilt (21-9) vs. (10) Illinois (19-12)

(2) Brigham Young (27-3) vs. (15) Long Beach State / Big West (18-10)

SOUTHEAST REGIONAL (New Orleans, LA - Thur/Sat)

Cleveland, OH (Fri/Sun)

(1) Pittsburgh (27-4) vs. (16) First Four: Middle Tennessee State / Sun Belt (15-15) vs. Texas Southern / SWAC (18-11)

(8) UNLV (23-7) vs. (9) Florida State (21-9)

Tucson, AZ (Thur/Sat)

(5) Kansas State (21-9) vs. (12) Washington (20-10)

(4) Kentucky (22-8) vs. (13) Indiana State * / Missouri Valley (19-13)

Chicago, IL (Fri/Sun)

(6) Cincinnati (24-7) vs. (11) Harvard / Ivy (21-5)

(3) Purdue (25-6) vs. (14) Kent State / MAC (20-10)

Charlotte, NC (Fri/Sun)

(7) Villanova (21-10) vs. (10) Georgia (20-10)

(2) Duke (27-4) vs. (15) Bucknell / Patriot (24-8)

SOUTHWEST REGIONAL (San Antonio, TX - Fri/Sun)

Tulsa, OK (Fri/Sun)

(1) Kansas (29-2) vs. (16) UNC Asheville * / Big South (16-13)

(8) Old Dominion (26-6) vs. (9) UAB (22-7)

Tampa, FL (Thur/Sat)

(5) Xavier (24-6) vs. (12) First Four: Clemson (20-10) vs. Penn State (16-13)

(4) St. John's (20-10) vs. (13) Belmont * / Atlantic Sun (30-4)

Tampa, FL (Thur/Sat)

(6) West Virginia (20-10) vs. (11) Michigan State (16-13)

(3) Florida (24-6) vs. (14) College of Charleston / Southern (24-9)

Tucson, AZ (Thur/Sat)

(7) Utah State (27-3) vs. (10) Boston College (19-11)

(2) San Diego State (27-2) vs. (15) Northern Colorado / Big Sky (17-10)

By Seed (East/Southeast/Southwest/West)

1. Ohio State, Pittsburgh. Kansas, Notre Dame
2. North Carolina, Duke, San Diego State, BYU
3. Louisville, Purdue, Florida, Texas
4. Syracuse, Kentucky, St. John's, Wisconsin
5. Texas A&M, Kansas State, Xavier, Arizona
6. Temple, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Georgetown
7. Connecticut, Villanova, Utah State, Vanderbilt
8. UCLA, UNLV, Old Dominion, George Mason
9. Tennessee, Florida State, UAB, Missouri
10. Butler, Georgia, Boston College, Illinois
11. Michigan, Harvard, Michigan State, St. Mary's
12. Missouri State, Washington, Clemson/Penn State, Richmond
13. Virgina Tech/Memphis, Indiana State*, Belmont*, Oakland
14. Iona, Kent State, Coll. of Charleston, Morehead State*
15. LIU-Brooklyn, Bucknell, Northern Colorado, Long Beach State
16. Bethune Cookman/McNeese State, Midd Tenn State/Texas Southern, UNC Asheville*, Boston University

RPI Numbers according to CBS Sports RPI:

Lowest RPI at large berth: Virginia Tech (63)

Lowest RPI at large berth, non First Four: Michigan (56)

Highest RPI not selected: Cleveland State (41)

RPI in top 50 not selected: Cleveland State (41), Colorado State (43), Virginia Commonwealth (48), Marshall (49)

RPI below 50 at large berths, non First Four: Richmond (55), Michigan (56)

First Four: Memphis (38), Penn State (54), Clemson (59), Virginia Tech (63)

Bids By Conference:

Big East (10)

Big Ten (7)

ACC (6)

Big 12 (5)

SEC (5)

Pac-10 (3)

MWC (3)

A-10 (3)

Colonial (2)

C-USA (2)

MVC (2)

One Team (for now): (20)

No. 1 Seed Ranks: No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Pittsburgh, No. 3 Kansas, No. 4 Notre Dame (East vs. West and Southeast vs. Southwest in Final Four)

Compare my brackets to CBS Sports Bracketology and others at the Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix.

Remember to comment! If you think a team or teams that are out should be in or vice versa, let me hear from you!

Schmolik 64 Update (2/28/11)

2011-02-28T14:42:00.001-05:00

Hello, college basketball fans!

Welcome to the Feb. 28, 2011 update for the 2011 Schmolik 64. At the end of the regular season I will pick a complete NCAA bracket with the teams I think belong in the NCAA field and where they should be seeded. Up to then, there will be updates to see where your team stands if the season ended today (Records as of Sun. Feb. 27, 2011).

Until Championship Week, I will only seed the top 12 seeds. The bottom four seeds are usually reserved for one-bid conferences in which usually only the conference champion goes. To accommodate this year's new "First Four" format, I am reserving two 12 seed lines for the "First Four." You should interpret these as being among the last teams to get into the field (although there could be exceptions based upon bracketing rules which prevent the actual last four from making the field). However, if only one team from a conference is listed, that team will not be placed in a First Four slot.

Until the final bracket, the No. 1 seeds will not be given ranks (although geographic placement will be considered) and no semifinal matchups will be provided.

For the record, I know there are 68 teams now but if I had my way there would still be just 64 teams and when I started the Schmolik 64 there were just 64 teams.

EAST REGIONAL (Newark, NJ Fri/Sun March 25-27)

Cleveland, OH (Fri/Sun March 18-20)
(1) Ohio State (27-2) vs (16)
(8) Cincinnati (22-7) vs (9) Old Dominion (24-6)

Charlotte, NC (Fri/Sun March 18-20)
(5) Georgetown (21-8) vs (12) First Four: UAB (20-7) vs Harvard (19-5)
(4) North Carolina (22-6) vs (13)

Tucson, AZ (Thur/Sat March 17-19)
(6) Texas A&M (21-6) vs (11) Missouri State (23-7)
(3) San Diego State (25-2) vs (14)

Chicago, IL (Fri/Sun March 18-20)
(7) Temple (22-6) vs (10) Michigan State (15-12)
(2) Notre Dame (23-5) vs (15)

SOUTHEAST REGIONAL (New Orleans, LA Thur/Sat March 24-26)

Cleveland, OH (Fri/Sun March 18-20)
(1) Pittsburgh (25-4) vs (16)
(8) Missouri (21-7) vs (9) Virginia Tech (19-8)

Tampa, FL (Thur/Sat March 17-19)
(5) UCLA (21-8) vs (12) First Four: Michigan (17-12) vs Southern Mississippi (18-7)
(4) Florida (22-6) vs (13)

Tampa, FL (Thur/Sat March 17-19)
(6) Villanova (21-8) vs (11) Butler (20-9)
(3) Wisconsin (22-6) vs (14)

Tulsa, OK (Fri/Sun March 18-20)
(7) West Virginia (18-10) vs (10) Tennessee (17-12)
(2) Texas (24-5) vs (15)

SOUTHWEST REGIONAL (San Antonio, TX Fri/Sun March 25-27)

Tulsa, OK (Fri/Sun March 18-20)
(1) Kansas (27-2) vs (16)
(8) Utah State (25-3) vs (9) Florida State (20-8)

Tucson, AZ (Thur/Sat March 17-19)
(5) Vanderbilt (20-7) vs (12) Washington (19-9)
(4) Connecticut (21-7) vs (13)

Washington, DC (Thur/Sat March 17-19)
(6) Xavier (22-6) vs (11) Memphis (21-8)
(3) Louisville (22-7) vs (14)

Chicago, IL (Fri/Sun March 18-20)
(7) UNLV (22-7) vs (10) Marquette (18-11)
(2) Purdue (24-5) vs (15)

WEST REGIONAL (Anaheim, CA Thur/Sat March 24-26)

Denver, CO (Thur/Sat March 17-19)
(1) Brigham Young (26-2) vs (16)
(8) Kansas State (19-9) vs (9) Illinois (18-11)

Denver, CO (Thur/Sat March 17-19)
(5) Kentucky (20-8) vs (12) Princeton (21-5)
(4) St. John’s (19-9) vs (13)

Washington, DC (Thur/Sat March 17-19)
(6) Arizona (23-6) vs (11) St. Mary’s (21-7)
(3) Syracuse (24-6) vs (14)

Charlotte, NC (Fri/Sun March 18-20)
(7) George Mason (25-5) vs (10) Georgia (19-9)
(2) Duke (26-3) vs (15)

Seeds (listed East/Southeast/Southwest/West):
1. Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Kansas, BYU
2. Notre Dame, Texas, Purdue, Duke
3. San Diego State, Wisconsin, Louisville, Syracuse
4. North Carolina, Florida, Connecticut, St. John's
5. Georgetown, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Kentucky
6. Texas A&M, Villanova, Xavier, Arizona
7. Temple, West Virginia, UNLV, George Mason
8. Cincinnati, Missouri, Utah State, Kansas State
9. Old Dominion, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Illinois
10. Michigan State, Tennessee, Marquette, Georgia
11. Missouri State, Butler, Memphis, St. Mary's
12. Washington, Princeton (First Four: UAB, Harvard, Michigan, Southern Miss)

Big East (11)
Big Ten (6)
SEC (5)
Big 12 (5)
MWC (4)
ACC (4)
C-USA (3)
Pac-10 (3)
A-10 (2)
Colonial (2)
Ivy (2)
Horizon (1)
MVC (1)
WAC (1)
WCC (1)
Remaining Automatics (16)
Unclaimed Slots (2 - reserved for party crashers)

Compare my bracket to CBS Sports Bracketology and many others at Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix.

Please comment! I will assume you are 100% satisfied with this bracket if you don't!

Schmolik 64 Update (2/21/11)

2011-02-22T14:19:00.001-05:00

Hello, college basketball fans!

Welcome to the second update for the 2011 Schmolik 64. At the end of the regular season I will pick a complete NCAA bracket with the teams I think belong in the NCAA field and where they should be seeded. Up to then, there will be updates to see where your team stands if the season ended today (Records as of Sun. Feb. 20, 2011).

Until Championship Week, I will only seed the top 12 seeds. The bottom four seeds are usually reserved for one-bid conferences in which usually only the conference champion goes.

To accommodate this year's new "First Four" format, I am reserving two 12 seed lines for the "First Four." You should interpret these as being among the last teams to get into the field (although there could be exceptions based upon bracketing rules which prevent the actual last four from making the field). However, if only one team from a conference is listed, that team will not be placed in a First Four slot.

Until the final bracket, the No. 1 seeds will not be given ranks (although geographic placement will be considered) and no semifinal matchups will be provided.

For the record, I know there are 68 teams now but if I had my way there would still be just 64 teams and when I started the Schmolik 64 there were just 64 teams.

Here's the bracket update for Feb. 21, 2011.

EAST REGIONAL (Newark, NJ Fri/Sun March 25-27)

Cleveland, OH (Fri/Sun March 18-20)
(1) Pittsburgh vs (16)
(8) Memphis vs (9) Florida State

Tucson, AZ (Thur/Sat March 17-19)
(5) Texas A&M vs (12) Princeton
(4) Vanderbilt vs (13)

Denver, CO (Thur/Sat March 17-19)
(6) Syracuse vs (11) Colorado State
(3) Arizona vs (14)

Chicago, IL (Fri/Sun March 18-20)
(7) Temple vs (10) Cincinnati
(2) Purdue vs (15)

SOUTHEAST REGIONAL (New Orleans, LA Thur/Sat March 24-26)

Cleveland, OH (Fri/Sun March 18-20)
(1) Ohio State vs (16)
(8) UCLA vs (9) Kansas State

Tampa, FL (Thur/Sat March 17-19)
(5) Connecticut vs (12) First Four – UAB/Valparaiso
(4) Florida vs (13)

Chicago, IL (Fri/Sun March 18-20)
(6) Missouri vs (11) Michigan
(3) Notre Dame vs (14)

Tucson, AZ (Thur/Sat March 17-19)
(7) Utah State vs (10) Georgia
(2) San Diego State vs (15)

SOUTHWEST REGIONAL (San Antonio, TX Fri/Sun March 25-27)

Charlotte, NC (Fri/Sun March 18-20)
(1) Duke vs (16)
(8) UNLV vs (9) Tennessee

Tampa, FL (Thur/Sat March 17-19)
(5) Xavier vs (12) Missouri State
(4) Louisville vs (13)

Charlotte, NC (Fri/Sun March 18-20)
(6) Kentucky vs (11) Butler
(3) Georgetown vs (14)

Tulsa, OK (Fri/Sun March 18-20)
(7) George Mason vs (10) Illinois
(2) Kansas vs (15)

WEST REGIONAL (Anaheim, CA Thur/Sat March 24-26)

Tulsa, OK (Fri/Sun March 18-20)
(1) Texas vs (16)
(8) Washington vs (9) Old Dominion

Washington, DC (Thur/Sat March 17-19)
(5) North Carolina vs (12) First Four: Michigan State/Cleveland State
(4) St. John’s vs (13)

Washington, DC (Thur/Sat March 17-19)
(6) Villanova vs (11) Southern Mississippi
(3) Wisconsin vs (14)

Denver, CO (Thur/Sat March 17-19)
(7) West Virginia vs (10) St. Mary’s
(2) Brigham Young vs (15)

Big East (10)
Big Ten (6)
SEC (5)
Big 12 (5)
MWC (4)
ACC (3)
C-USA (3)
Pac-10 (3)
A-10 (2)
Horizon (3)
Colonial (2)
Ivy (1)
MVC (1)
WAC (1)
WCC (1)

Remaining Automatics (16)
Unclaimed Slots (2 - reserved for party crashers)

Compare my bracket to CBS Sports Bracketology and many others at Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix.

Please comment! I will assume you are 100% satisfied with this bracket if you don't!

Schmolik 64 Update (2/14/11)

2011-02-16T06:55:00.001-05:00

Hello, college basketball fans!

Welcome to the first update for the 2011 Schmolik 64. At the end of the regular season, I will pick a complete NCAA bracket with the teams I think belong in the NCAA field and where they should be seeded. Up to then, there will be updates to see where your team stands if the season ended today (Records as of Sun. Feb. 13, 2011).

Until Championship Week, I will only seed the top 12 seeds. The bottom four seeds are usually reserved for one bid conferences in which usually only the conference champion goes from those conferences. For this year to accommodate the new "First Four" format, I am reserving two 12 seed lines for the "First Four". You should interpret these as being among the last teams to get into the field (although there could be exceptions based upon bracketing rules which prevent the actual last four from making the field).

Until the final bracket, the #1 seeds will not be given ranks (although geographic placement will be considered) and no semifinal matchups will be provided.

For the record, I know there are 68 teams now but if I had my way there would still be just 64 teams and when I started the Schmolik 64 there were just 64 teams.

Here's the bracket update for Feb. 14, 2011.

EAST REGIONAL (Newark, NJ Fri/Sun March 25-27)

Cleveland, OH (Fri/Sun March 18-20)
(1) Pittsburgh vs (16)
(8) Temple vs (9) Colorado State

Denver, CO (Thur/Sat March 17-19)
(5) Texas A&M vs (12) Cincinnati
(4) Arizona vs (13)

Chicago, IL (Fri/Sun March 18-20)
(6) Syracuse vs (11) Missouri State
(3) Wisconsin vs (14)

Charlotte, NC (Fri/Sun March 18-20)
(7) Tennessee vs (10) Valparaiso
(2) Duke vs (15)

SOUTHEAST REGIONAL (New Orleans, LA Thur/Sat March 24-26)

Cleveland, OH (Fri/Sun March 18-20)
(1) Ohio State vs (16)
(8) St. Mary's vs (9) Georgia

Washington, DC (Thur/Sat March 17-19)
(5) Xavier vs (12) First Four - Texas El Paso/Harvard
(4) Louisville vs (13)

Tampa, FL (Thur/Sat March 17-19)
(6) Missouri vs (11) UNLV
(3) Florida vs (14)

Chicago, IL (Fri/Sun March 18-20)
(7) George Mason vs (10) Illinois
(2) Notre Dame vs (15)

SOUTHWEST REGIONAL (San Antonio, TX Fri/Sun March 25-27)

Tulsa, OK (Fri/Sun March 18-20)
(1) Kansas vs (16)
(8) Florida State vs (9) Utah State

Tucson, AZ (Thur/Sat March 17-19)
(5) Vanderbilt vs (12) Princeton
(4) Connecticut vs (13)

Washington, DC (Thur/Sat March 17-19)
(6) St. John's vs (11) UAB
(3) Purdue vs (14)

Tucson, AZ (Thur/Sat March 17-19)
(7) UCLA vs (10) Marquette
(2) San Diego State vs (15)

WEST REGIONAL (Anaheim, CA Thur/Sat March 24-26)

Tulsa, OK (Fri/Sun March 18-20)
(1) Texas vs (16)
(8) Washington vs (9) Memphis

Tampa, FL (Thur/Sat March 17-19)
(5) Villanova vs (12) First Four: Butler/Michigan
(4) North Carolina vs (13)

Charlotte, NC (Fri/Sun March 18-20)
(6) Kentucky vs (11) Minnesota
(3) Georgetown vs (14)

Denver, CO (Thur/Sat March 17-19)
(7) West Virginia vs (10) Old Dominion
(2) Brigham Young vs (15)

Big East (11)
Big 10 (6)
SEC (5)
Big 12 (4)
MWC (4)
ACC (3)
C-USA (3)
Pac-10 (3)
A-10 (2)
Colonial (2)
Horizon (2)
Ivy (2)
MVC (1)
WAC (1)
WCC (1)
Remaining Automatics (16)
Unclaimed Slots (2 - reserved for party crashers)

Compare my bracket to CBS Sports Bracketology and many others at Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix.

Schmolik's Dream Big 10 Expansion

2010-04-23T18:56:00.005-04:00

Hello, college basketball fans!

A big topic in the media these past few months has been the expansion of the Big 10 teams. Those of you who know me know I am an alum and huge fan of Illinois. I was at the 2005 game in Chicago when my Illini made the improbable comeback to beat Arizona in the Elite Eight to make the Final Four. In addition, I have a graduate degree from another Big 10 school. Penn State. So of course I am rooting for Big 10 expansion. While I may have a lot of preferred teams I also am realistic. While my favorite college sport of course is basketball, I do know football also counts, money also counts, and academics also counts. That being said, my dream expansion I feel is very reasonable on the other counts and would make the Big 10 arguably if not unarguably the best basketball conference in America.

My proposed expansion: Add Syracuse, Pittsburgh, and Connecticut.

Just see what happens to Big 10 basketball based upon NCAA tournament performance since 2000:

Current conference setups:

Big 10 as is:

92 wins, 22 Sweet 16, 9 Final Fours, 1 Championship (MSU 2000)

Big East as is:

115 wins, 33 Sweet 16, 8 Final Fours, 2 Championships (Syracuse 2003, UConn 2004)

ACC:

101 wins, 22 Sweet 16, 10 Final Fours, 5 Championships (Duke 2001 and 2010, North Carolina 2005 and 2009, Maryland 2002)

My proposal with Syracuse, Pitt, and UConn moving to the Big 10:

Pitt, Syracuse, and UConn:

49 wins, 15 Sweet 16's, 3 Final Fours, 2 Championships

Big 10 with the Big 3:
141 wins, 37 Sweet 16's, 12 Final Fours, 3 Championships

Big East without the Big 3:

66 wins, 18 Sweet 16's, 5 Final Fours, No Championships

Not only would the new Big 10 clearly be better than the new Big East, the new Big 10 would rival the ACC (they would lead in every category except national championships, which of course is really the most important category).

Big 10 with the Big 3:

141 wins, 37 Sweet 16's, 12 Final Fours, 3 Championships

ACC:

101 wins, 22 Sweet 16, 10 Final Fours, 5 Championships (Duke 2001 and 2010, North Carolina 2005 and 2009, Maryland 2002)

Now of course the three I chose also have football teams. Pitt is a decent Big East football team. UConn is up and coming. Syracuse of course is awful now but they have had success in the past and have been a rivalry of Penn State before Penn State joined the Big 10. In terms of economics, Syracuse and UConn can help bring more fans from the Northeast including the New York market and in UConn's case most of New England into the Big 10. Pitt doesn't really add to the geographical mold but Pittsburgh isn't any slouch in terms of a market and while the Big 10 may have a following in Pittsburgh because of Penn State, they would all but own it if Pittsburgh joined the Big 10 and imagine how big Pitt/PSU and Pitt/OSU football games would be? As for academics, Pitt and Syracuse are AAU members which is seemed by many to be a strong selling point to Big 10 candidacy. Connecticut is not an AAU member is but is ranked 66th according to US News & World Report magazine academically (Pitt is 56th and Syracuse is 58th). While none of the three is a slam dunk in any area except college basketball, I feel the total package of all three should be qualified candidates for Big 10 expansion.

Now the one team I don't want to see in the Big East that everyone says is a threat to join the Big 10? Rutgers. OK, the last time Rutgers made the NCAA tournament was 1991. Since the NCAA tournament field expanded in 1985, Rutgers is a great 0-2 in the NCAA's over a 26 year span. You can have UConn (2 NC's), Syracuse (1 NC), or Pitt (solid program last decade), or Rutgers. Now Rutgers is much better football school that Syracuse and probably better than UConn (Pitt and Rutgers about even). But basektball is miles ahead at the other three schools than Rutgers. Now of course football drives more tickets but here's why basketball is more important. Strength of schedule means a lot more in college basketball than college football. In college football, if you win seven games it doesn't matter who you play, you're going to a bowl. So what if two of our wins are UConn and Syracuse. They still count. By contrast, the Big 10 was doomed by three lousy RPI killers this season (Penn State, Indiana, and Iowa). We finished 10-8 in the Big 10 but had an RPI of 75, arguably the biggest reason Illinois missed the NCAA's and why Ohio State's RPI was in the 20s. Add Rutgers to that and see what happens. And I can live with a bad basketball team if they have a great football team (Penn State). Rutgers is an awful basketball team and an above average football team. Syracuse is an awful football team but a great basketball team. And I'll take Syracuse basketball over Rutgers football any day of the week. Heck, I'll take Syracuse football over Rutgers basketball any day of the week too. As for media, except for that run in 2006 does anyone in New York care about Rutgers any more than Syracuse or UConn? All three teams are pretty much fish out of water for most of the Big 10. But the one team that has a connection to any of the Eastern schools? Penn State. In the 80's, Penn State and Pitt was a huge in state rivalry. When Syracuse was good, Penn State and Syracuse was a big rivalry as well. Penn State never cared about Rutgers.

As for Rutgers, they should be happy to even be in the Big East. A long time ago, Rutgers and my local boys Temple were in the Big East in football. In the late 90's, both Temple and Rutgers sucked at football but Temple basketball was great with three NCAA Elite Eights between 1988 and 1993 and Rutgers basketball also sucked. Yet when the Big East wanted to grant access to Big East basketball and other sports, they chose Rutgers (and West Virginia, who sucked in basketball back then too). Then we all know Temple was kicked out of the Big East because they sucked at football. Yet Rutgers also sucked (it wasn't until the mid 2000's they got good) and got to stay. I have no love for Rutgers or the Big East. If my scenario takes place, Big East football gets burned to the ground and Rutgers goes with it. I certainly don't want to see Rutgers get saved by the Big 10 and Pitt and/or Syracuse get screwed over.

While my "Big 14" is great, it might be even better. Add Maryland and Notre Dame. In addition to two more good basketball programs, Maryland and Notre Dame are also fine academic institutions (Maryland is AAU), Maryland gives the Big 10 the DC area and I think Notre Dame sells itself. I don't think Maryland would want to leave the ACC to rival with just Penn State. But what if they could rival with Syracuse, Pitt, and UConn as well? They could join a more Northeastern league than the mostly southern ACC. They use to rival with Virginia but now Virginia Tech is Virginia's biggest rival and I don't see much a rivalry between Maryland and Boston College. And Notre Dame would have more reason to join the "Big 14" if the Big East lost three of its biggest basketball teams as well as three football teams. I don't think either Maryland or Notre Dame would join away but might join a better Big 10 (especially with a weakened Big East).

So my lineup (longshots in parentheses):
East: Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Connecticut, (Maryland)

West: Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, (Notre Dame)

To me and Big 10 basketball...

Pitt, Syracuse, and UConn to the Big 10? A SLAM DUNK!

Rutgers to the Big 10? AN AIR BALL!

Thoughts on College Basketball Expansion to 68

2010-04-23T18:55:00.000-04:00

Hello, college basketball fans!

Big news in the college basketball world as the NCAA's will be going to 68. While I want it to go back to 64, 68 is a lot better than 96. Some talk is that the NCAA purposedly pushed 96 to make 68 look like a great thing and we all know it was a ploy to get a new TV contract (which they did).

Speaking of the new TV contract, of course the NCAA Final Four is headed to cable ... but in 2016. And after that, it will still be on CBS every other year up to 2023. I still think the Final Four deserves to be on free TV annually and the ratings justify it but this is a lot better than college football (and of course this actually is a playoff is also a great thing). And at least ESPN didn't get it. I do realize cable TV has much more money to throw around (subscriber fees) but exposure is important too. Even if 90% of America has cable, how many of you would voluntarily cut off 10% of your audience? In the short term, you get more money but in the long run you hurt yourself. The NBA had a lot more playoff games on NBC before they moved most if not all of the conference finals games as well as the rest of the playoffs and the All Star game to cable. Ratings have plummetted. Of course, a lot of it is there is no Michael Jordan but still a lot less exposure. Same with baseball when only one LCS is now on free TV. What league by far is the most popular now? The league that has 95% of games on free TV in local markets and all of their playoff games. And the few cable games are shown locally on local stations. MLB doesn't even do that for playoff games. If you wanted to see my Phillies in the LCS last year, you had to get cable. The NFL actually cares about its fans and about the future instead of the present. They're also the only league where a large majority of games, including the Super Bowl, start before 7pm. Baseball went to all night games for the World Series and basketball to all night games for the NBA Finals, including on the weekends and Sundays. The NFL plays its Super Bowl around 6pm or 6:30pm. Would MLB or the NBA start a game that early on Sunday or Saturday? No. Most kids today may have never seen the end of a World Series or NBA Finals game. But they have seen the end of a Super Bowl. Guess which league these kids will watch 20 years from now.

As for the future play in round, I hope the NCAA finally comes to its senses and gives us the play in games that are fair and the play in games we want. Let's make the teams that actually "earned" their way in the field have to play an extra game to make the 64 while teams that barely get in get to the "main field". The last teams in the field should be happy they have a chance to make the field. Why take away a Winthrop's chance to play a Duke or a Kentucky and play in an arena with seven other teams and make them play in Dayton in front of few fans? Tell me this year you wouldn't have rather seen UTEP vs Illinois play for a 12 seed than Pine Bluff and Winthrop play for a 16? That being said, at least I am assuming they will play all four play in games in the same city and likely the same day so maybe the 8 teams will at least share an arena together before four of them go home. But if the NCAA wants to make more money and if CBS/Turner were smart, they would give us the play in games we all want, four play in games among at large games with the winners advancing as 12 seeds. Who knows, maybe one of these winners beats the 5 seed or even get to the Sweet 16. We know no 16 seed will ever win over a 1 in this format.

Schmolik Bracket Analysis 2010

2010-03-17T09:24:00.003-04:00

Hello, college basketball fans! Happy St. Patrick's Day!

Time for this year's Schmolik Bracket Analysis. Just to give you a reason to read this: In 2007, I correctly picked all eight of the final eight teams, three of the Final Four, both finalists, and correctly picked Florida to win it all over Ohio State. My final was 75-67 (8 pts) and the winning score was 84-75 (9 pts). North Carolina lost to Georgetown in overtime. Had UNC won, I would've had all four Final Four teams! Now last two years, maybe not so much. Last year, I had Carolina losing to Louisville in the final and had one of the Final Four (Carolina). In 2008, I picked two of the Final Four (UNC and UCLA) and picked both to make the Final Four (instead the two #1's I picked to get upset went to the championship game).

Normally, I start with Illinois's bracket but we all know Illinois's not in it.

I'll start with the #1 overall seed and I would say the toughest regional. You got Kansas, Ohio State, Georgetown, Maryland, Michigan State, and Tennessee in one regional. Usually there's one tough regional but I wonder if this could be one of the toughest ever. Luckily for Kansas, they have reasonable drives to Oklahoma City and St. Louis on their way to the Final Four. I heard a little about mid majors playing each other in the 1st round. Is it a good thing that one will make the 2nd round or bad because both won't get the chance to knock off competition from power conferences. I seem to like to see the mid major vs power conference in Round 1 and when picking the Schmolik 64 I usually try to do this. Well, UNLV plays Northern Iowa in this round. I like Northern Iowa in this one. We have some great 2nd round matchups in Maryland vs Michigan State (the folks in Spokane are really lucky) and Georgetown vs Tennessee. Tennessee has beaten Kansas and Kentucky but they don't play NCAA tournament games at home so I'll pick Georgetown. I've learned when in doubt go with Tom Izzo, so I'll pick Michigan State over Maryland but not over Kansas. I won't be surprised in this regional if Kansas doesn't make the Final Four but you have to go with them as the favorite. I'll say Kansas over Georgetown in the regional final and will say if you want to see one regional this year, head to St. Louis. Because it's in a dome, you probably can still get tickets if the Kansas fans haven't bought them already.

I'll head to the West Regional next. Must be the loss to St. Mary's, but I'm not feeling Gonzaga this year (despite the fact that they beat Illinois, one of about 10 games had Illinois won they'd probably be in the tournament). Plus, they are heading to Buffalo. As much as I speak about Spokane and Boise, I'll imagine most of you Westerners are thinking about Buffalo. I mean, we have plenty of great NCAA sites here in the East, so why Buffalo? I think Gonzaga could be in a heap of trouble and will be beaten by Florida State. The real bad news for Gonzaga? Here's a non tournament prediction for you, see if I'm right. We know Mark Few's name gets tossed around all the time whenever any big time college basketball program opening comes up. I'm sure Few has rejected better programs but Oregon is Few's alma mater and he grew up close to Eugene. It's one thing to turn down a lot of other jobs in a far off area, but I think Mark may listen if Oregon calls (and rumors say Ernie Kent is on his way out). I would be shocked if Few wasn't at the top of Oregon's list and with the weakness of the Pac 10 this year, is there any doubt Few could lead them to near the top of the Pac 10 next year if he goes there? I'm not saying Few would go if Oregon calls. I would say if Few doesn't go, he probably will be at Gonzaga the rest of his life.

Getting back to the West regional, watch out for Butler making the Sweet 16 (although I would pick Vanderbilt). Actually, Murray State could be a big upset in round 1. We could have a rematch of Pitt/Xavier in the 2nd round (they met last year in the Sweet 16). BYU hasn't won a tournament game since 1993 and I would imagine a lot of fans of teams that thought they should be in the tournament will be rooting for BYU to beat Florida. Normally Billy Donovan vs. whoever BYU's coach is would seem to be a mismatch but consider BYU made the tournament the last two years and Florida didn't. There are plenty of cases of coaches who made a perceived jump up and failed but you wonder if Billy Donovan made a mistake not jumping (he could have been coaching Dwight Howard in the NBA Finals last June and since then Florida missed the NCAA's and barely made it in this year). In considering the best coaches to not make the Final Four, I'd imagine Jamie Dixon would be up there with Mark Few at the top of my head. This year he took a young team to a #3 seed. I think Pittsburgh has the edge over Kansas State but like last year I think he will meet his end in the Elite Eight to a Big East rival - Syracuse. Keep in mind Pitt was one of the teams that beat Syracuse earlier this year. I think Syracuse may have the easiest path to the Final 8 of anyone.

Let's return East and it is unusual seeing someone outside the ACC or Big East as the #1 seed. But Kentucky leads the pack here. John Calipari has said his team is one of the youngest teams in the NCAA's but also compared his team to the Final Four (not a bad comparison). The biggest collapse of the season has to be Texas, dropping all the way to an 8 seed after being ranked #1 this year. They could either be the team that was #1 or the team that struggled through the tough Big 12. Kentucky hopes they see the 2nd half Texas team and not the first. I think Temple was shafted as they should've been a 3 seed. If you are rooting for a coach to just win one game, Fran Dunphy. His record in the NCAA's? 1-11. He won in 1994 over Nebraska when he was coaching Penn. It's an interesting matchup vs. Cornell in the 1st round. Cornell's coach was an assistant under Dunphy at Penn. This is also a pair of teams that were in the NCAA's the last two years and lost in the 1st round each time. I have to go with Wisconsin to make the Sweet 16. Another guy you don't want to go against is Bo Ryan. The bottom looks to be Bob Huggins and West Virginia's. If you call it an upset, Washington over an overrated Marquette. It's the second year in a row that Marquette went west and played a western team. That's usually a bad thing. But Marquette won last year in the same round. I think New Mexico got a pretty good draw to the Sweet 16 as I think Tennessee or Xavier (other 6's) would be favored over the Lobos. With Kentucky, it's either talent or experience and I'll go with talent and pick them over West Virginia.

As for the weakest regional, of course it is the South. Duke got everything from the play in winner to the weakest 2 and 3 seeds IMHO and a Hummel less Purdue. Then again, I'm not sure Duke is that strong despite winning the ACC (a really weak ACC). While the teams aren't really strong, the challenge will be playing in Houston against potentially two Big 12 teams (Houston is also a big stadium and if there were tickets available they'll be bought by the Texas A&M and Baylor fans). I think the Purdue seeding is fair but if another team I thought got screwed in seeding? Siena. Can you even call Siena beating Purdue an upset. Here's another upset I can see - Old Dominion over Notre Dame. Baylor is I feel a weak 3 but I'm not sure any of their opponents can beat them. I think A&M and Baylor have decent paths to the Sweet 16 which could be huge trouble for Duke and Villanova. I love Villanova but I think they are overseeded. I would pick them over Baylor normally but I have a feeling the crowd may make the difference in both semifinal games. So this may be the stupidest Final Four pick I've ever made - Texas A&M over Baylor in the final!

Final Four: Kentucky has to beat Texas A&M (although a Kentucky/Duke semifinal will be highly anticipated) and I'll give the edge to Kansas over Syracuse. In the final, the youth has to become a factor eventually so I'll pick Kansas to win it all. I will say the bracket seems kind of unbalanced and teams I probably wouldn't pick (A&M) I wound up picking. Kansas can just as easily lose in the Sweet 16 as win it all. At least the games should be close. I imagine the winning scores will be quite low this season.

Recap:
Midwest: Kansas over Ohio State
West: Syracuse over Pittsburgh
East: Kentucky over West Virginia
South: Texas A&M over Baylor

Final Four: Kansas over Syracuse, Kentucky over Texas A&M
Championship: Kansas over Kentucky

Schmolik

Comments on Women's Bracket

2010-03-15T20:48:00.002-04:00

Hello, women's college basketball fans!

Well, I missed on three teams in my women's Schmolik 64. I had Boston College, USC, and Illinois State while the NCAA had North Carolina, Arkansas Little Rock, and Wisconsin Green Bay. Obviously, UNC is a perennial power, but they were the 8/9 seed in the ACC and lost in the 1st round of the ACC to Maryland. Meanwhile, Boston College was the 7 seed and upset Florida State in the 1st round. I didn't realize when making my bracket that UNC had beaten Duke but then again so did BC (which I didn't know either). As for the RPI, USC was 36th and Illinois State was 50th while UALR was 56 and Wisc-Green Bay was 70 (Boston College was 48th)! I'll admit to missing on North Carolina although you can make a case for BC and UNC in the field. I found ESPN's experts and all of them said they were shocked at UWGB. Three said the biggest snub was USC and the other said Illinois State, two teams I had in my field. It's nice to see regular season champs make it in as an at large if they were upset in their conference tournament. But then, why not Illinois State? I think the MVC in women's must not be the same as the men's as Northern Iowa got a 16 seed.

As for the #1's, I had Duke over Nebraska. I can see Nebraska as a #1 over Duke, but over Tennessee (they put UConn and Tennessee in the same bracket)? I mean we have Tennessee and we have Nebraska. I didn't even know Nebraska had a women's basketball team until today. ESPN said before the show everyone wanted to see a Connecticut/Tennessee matchup in the final, now it can't happen. The RPI had Tennessee 3rd over Nebraska and both polls did as well. Nebraska lost in the semifinals of its tournament. And even if Nebraska was a #1, I thought put them with Duke, the clear cut #2. Nope, they got a #2 I had as a #3 while Duke and Tennessee have to meet in the regional final (and Big Ten Champ Ohio State gets to lose to UConn). These are the top six teams in the Kansas City regional: Nebraska, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Michigan State, and Georgia Tech. Not one won their conference tournament. I thought Duke received special treatment. Then again, they are Duke. What has Nebraska ever done before? Have they ever won an NCAA game (oh wait, that's the Nebraska men's team)?

I had the same 12 top 3 seeds as the NCAA's (had Duke instead of Nebraska as a #1 and Xavier instead of Notre Dame as a #2). I matched Iowa State and Kentucky as #4's. My other 4 seeds were Texas and Georgetown, the NCAA had Oklahoma State and Baylor, who I had as a 6 seed. Texas was seeded ahead of both in the Big 12 tournament and swept Baylor while Baylor got a 4 seed. I can see Ok State ahead of Texas (they upset #2 seed ISU in the Big 12) but not Baylor ahead of Texas. I often have teams overseeded and underseeded but this could be one of my most interesting mistakes. I had Middle Tennessee, Sun Belt champ as a #6 seed and Mississippi State as a #11 and playing each other. Well the Selection Committee had MSU as a 7 seed and Middle Tennessee as a #10 and ... playing each other. Usually you have a team with a gift seed getting a really easy opponent and a team that got screwed really getting screwed. But here, it seems like they both are getting what they deserved. If you go by the RPI, Midd Tenn is 23 and Miss St was 45. Let's see if the Selection Committee was right or I was.

Well I had fun putting it together and let's see if I do it again next year.

Schmolik

The First Ever Schmolik WOMEN'S 64!

2010-03-15T17:32:00.004-04:00

Hello, women's college basketball fans!

I've been doing the Schmolik 64 for a while now and always wanted to do a Schmolik 64 for the women's tournament (by the way, a true 64). Well, I've finally done it. Now I really don't know much about college basketball outside of Connecticut and only found RPI ratings from the NCAA website and the AP and USA Today ratings. Someone want to do a Paymon score on this bracket? Or better yet, how many teams I get correctly?

A few differences I found for the women's tournament. The sites are named after the cities, not the regions.There are 16 1st/2nd round sites so rather than two pods in each site, there are just one. If a school hosts a site, not only is the host school allowed to be there, I think there's an unwritten rule that they have to be there. I also think there are less strict rules on teams from the same conference being placed in the same regional and so on but I tried for the most part to split around the teams in the same conference in the bracket.

Here goes nothing:

Sat/Mon March 20-22
Sun/Tue March 21-23

Final Four is Dayton vs Kansas City and Sacramento vs Memphis

DAYTON REGIONAL - (Sun/Tue March 28-30) I can tell you this, no one wants to be in this regional for one obvious reason...

Sun/Tue games in Minneapolis, MN
1 CONNECTICUT (33-0) vs 16 AUSTIN PEAY (15-17)
8 TULANE (26-6) vs 9 Dayton (24-7)

Sat/Mon games in Louisville, KY
5 Oklahoma State (23-10) vs 12 LOUISIANA TECH (23-8)
4 Kentucky (25-7) vs 13 CHATTANOOGA (24-8)

Sat/Mon games in Tallahassee, FL
6 Baylor (23-9) vs 11 DePaul (21-11)
3 Florida State (26-5) vs 14 LIBERTY (27-5)

Sun/Tue games in Cincinnati, OH
7 Hartford (27-4) vs 10 Wisconsin (21-10)
2 XAVIER (27-3) vs 15 LAMAR (26-7)

KANSAS CITY REGIONAL (Sun/Tue March 28-30)

Sat/Mon games in Durham, NC
1 DUKE (27-5) vs 16 ST. FRANCIS (17-14)
8 Georgia (23-8) vs 9 Temple (24-8)

Sat/Mon games in Seattle, WA
5 GONZAGA (27-4) vs 12 Boston College (17-15)
4 Georgetown (25-6) vs 13 PRINCETON (26-2)

Sat/Mon games in Berkeley, CA
6 Ucla (24-8) vs 11 SAN DIEGO STATE (21-10)
3 West Virginia (28-5) vs 14 E. TENNESSEE ST (23-8)

Sat/Mon games in Tempe, AZ
7 NC State (20-13) vs 10 Usc (19-12)
2 Nebraska (30-1) vs 15 UC RIVERSIDE (17-15)

SACRAMENTO REGIONAL (Sat/Mon March 27-29)

Sat/Mon games in Palo Alto, CA
1 STANFORD (31-1) vs 16 PORTLAND STATE (18-14)
8 Lsu (20-9) vs 9 Fresno State (27-6)

Fri/Sun games in Austin, TX
5 St. John's (24-6) vs 12 Tcu (22-8)
4 Texas (22-10) vs 13 LEHIGH (29-3)

Fri/Sun games in Norman, OK
6 MIDDLE TENNESSEE (25-5) vs 11 Mississippi State (19-12)
3 Oklahoma (23-10) vs 14 NORTHERN IOWA (17-15)

Fri/Sun games in Pittsburgh, PA
7 Rutgers (19-14) vs 10 VERMONT (26-6)
2 OHIO STATE (30-4) vs 15 SOUTH DAKOTA ST (22-10)

MEMPHIS REGIONAL (Thur/Sat March 27-29)

Thur/Sat games in Knoxville, TN
1 TENNESSEE (30-2) vs 16 SOUTHERN (23-8)
8 Georgia Tech (23-9) vs 9 JAMES MADISON (26-6)

Fri/Sun games in Ames, IA
5 Michigan State (22-9) vs 12 MARIST (26-7)
4 Iowa State (23-7) vs 13 Illinois State (24-7)

Fri/Sun games in South Bend, IN
6 Vanderbilt (22-10) vs 11 BOWLING GREEN (27-6)
3 Notre Dame (27-5) vs 14 CLEVELAND STATE (19-13)

Fri/Sun games in Norfolk, VA
7 Virginia (21-9) vs 10 Iowa (19-13)
2 TEXAS A&M (25-7) vs 15 HAMPTON (20-11)

Top 50 RPI Teams left out:
#38 North Carolina (19-11, 5-8 in ACC)
#44 Kansas (15-15, 5-11 in Big 12)
#46 Maryland (19-12, 5-8 in ACC)

Multiple bid:

Big East (7): Conn, WV, ND, GTown, St. J, Rut, DeP
Big 12 (7): Neb, A&M, Okl, ISU, Tex, OSU, Bay
ACC (6): Duke, FSU, Va, NCSt, GaT, BC
SEC (6): Tenn, Ky, Vbilt, Ga, LSU, MSU
Big 10 (4): OSU, MSU, Iowa, Wisc
A-10 (3): Xav, Temp, Day
Pac 10 (3): Stan, UCLA, USC
AE (2): Htfd, Vt
WAC (2): FrSt, LaT
MWC (2): TCU, SDSt
MVC (2): ISU, N Iowa
One bid: 19

Schmolik

Comments on NCAA Bracket and Other Brackets

2010-03-15T10:32:00.004-04:00

Hello, college basketball fans!

Time to compare my bracket to the NCAA's and to other brackets across the web. Thank you to the Bracket Project (http://bracketproject.blogspot.com/) for compiling all the results in the Bracket Matrix.

As upset as I am that my Illini aren't in (for two reasons, one because I graduated from there and two if they had gotten in I would've been perfect for the first time in 17 years), I knew they were a very questionable pick and I can't tell you for sure Illinois is a better team than Florida. We beat Michigan State, but so did they. We beat Vanderbilt, they beat Tennessee. Florida's RPI was by far better and their conference RPI was better (it was amazing Illinois was even in the discussion with their RPI in the 70's). Florida had fewer bad losses although they did lose at home to South Alabama, who wasn't even in the top 200 RPI. The Sportsline polls favored Illinois over Florida, even with the names removed (blind resumes). I think there were 64 clear cut picks (including Minnesota) and a lot of candidates for the last spot. I think if I were Mississippi State, I'd be a little ticked off that Florida did get in ahead of MSU. Florida and Mississippi State were both 9-7 in the SEC and split two games but Florida won at Florida and Mississippi State won in the SEC tournament (and followed that up with a victory over Vanderbilt and then were less than a second away from beating Kentucky). Then again, Florida of course played in the much tougher SEC East and MSU got a bye instead of Florida in the SEC tournament. Had MSU played and Florida had a bye, maybe Florida wins the game. I was rooting hard for Kentucky to win that game thinking maybe Illinois would get in. I give credit to Kentucky for actually playing hard in what was probably a meaningless game for them (especially trying to force overtime by intentionally missing the last free throw and getting the rebound). It seemed more like an NFL team locked in position (I doubt they would've passed Kansas for #1 overall). I almost wonder if UTEP, Cal, and Utah State weren't playing with the same effort trying to help their leagues get two bids instead of one (of course it turned out UTEP and Utah State might have cost themselves a bid). The question that will never be answered probably was had Mississippi State won, who would be out? From what I was saying all along, it should have been Florida that would be out. But Florida received a 10 seed so it in theory would've been one of the at large 12 seeds (UTEP or Utah State). I wouldn't have been happy to see that happen (or even if Illinois were in and one of UTEP and Utah State lost).

As for Virginia Tech, usually I agree not to take a team behind in standings (then again, Virginia Tech had by far the worst ACC schedule, playing all five of the bottom five teams twice and all six of the ACC NCAA teams just once) and do agree with the fact that Virginia Tech beat both Wake Forest and Georgia Tech (in Atlanta). But then look at their non conference schedule. It wasn't bad, it was awful. Their RPI was way behind the others. Maybe if Georgia Tech had lost to Maryland, Georgia Tech probably doesn't get in. But the Jackets made it to the final and it would be hard to leave them out after that. The Hokies were in my opinion hurt by Championship Week, losing to #12 seed Miami and not only by party crashers but other bubble teams like Minnesota and Mississippi State, who were longshots when the week started.

I spent Saturday at the Atlantic 10 tournament in Atlantic City. They had a "Fan Zone" which had TV's that I watched from time to time after the Temple game was over. While I liked that Temple won (I have a graduate degree from Temple), Saturday couldn't have been worse for Illinois. First, Houston won, stealing an at large bid from Illinois. Then Illinois went double OT vs Ohio State and wound up losing. Then Mississippi State and Minnesota both won. The more you think about it, Minnesota should've been in over Illinois had they both lost on Saturday but I knew Minnesota would get in first after they stomped over Purdue. And finally New Mexico State won. Houston and New Mexico State seemed like the only true "party crashers" but when Illinois is a bubble team it seemed like there was more. You can argue Washington and St. Mary's might have been bubble teams if they hadn't won but they clearly each had a case to make the field. Oh well, this will be Illinois's first NIT bid since 1996 (Lou Henson's last year and just after I graduated). And they are a #1 seed, which still sounds cool. Maybe we can win it. Then again, Penn State won last year's NIT and they were awful this year. Penn State, Iowa, and Indiana being so horrible probably in part contributed to our poor RPI (and all of the Big 10's, Ohio State's and Michigan State's weren't even in the top 25 as of Sunday morning).

According to the brackets in the Bracket Matrix, there were 83 brackets. Minnesota was on 69 of the brackets and were the second last in. Forget the talk about expansion, maybe it's time to go back to 64 teams. Last year, there were 64 mostly consensus picks and the last one was the one that there was a huge difference of opinion. This year was the same.

Mississippi State - 32 brackets
Virginia Tech - 30 brackets
Illinois - 27 brackets
Florida -19 brackets

Could you imagine the discussion about the last pick? Remember Mississippi State played in the SEC final and it went overtime. That would leave us less than three hours to choose the last team. Of course, leave it to the NCAA to choose clearly the 4th choice and to put them as a 10 seed. Then again, they did improve over last year when Arizona was chosen on just 8 brackets yet made the NCAA's.

As for the seedings, I had West Virginia over Duke although the majority of the brackets had Duke as the last #1. My unofficial count was 53 for Duke and 30 for West Virginia. Seeing Duke get the third #1 was interesting although I think it's a non issue if you think about it. Would playing Kansas or Kentucky in the semifinals make much of a difference? And while Salt Lake City is a long trip for Syracuse, Houston would be as well.

I had Georgetown over Villanova for the final 2 seed with their run to the conference final. The committee had Villanova. Georgetown was the last #2 according to the Matrix. I had clearly underrated Villanova (had them as a #4 seed). The Matrix had Villanova, New Mexico, Temple, and Baylor (although Baylor's average seed was closer to 4 than 3) as the four 3 seeds (I had Purdue and Pitt as 3's instead of Villanova and Baylor). The Matrix's #4's were Purdue, Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, and Tennessee). The only change I had from the matrix's Sweet 16 was I had Michigan State instead of Tennessee (the NCAA's had Vanderbilt and Maryland instead of Temple (who the Matrix had as a 3) and Tennessee (the NCAA made them a 6). I was very surprised and disappointed Temple was a 5 seed although in theory 4's and 5's aren't usually much different.

Compared to the matrix, my overseeded and underseeded (more than one seed off):
Marquette (I had them as an 11, matrix had them an 8)
UNLV (I had them as a 12, matrix had them a 9)

San Diego State (I had them as a 7, matrix had them a 9)
Old Dominion (I had them as an 8, matrix had them a 10)

NCAA vs Matrix (unlike other people, instead of assuming the NCAA is right, I assume the Matrix is right - 83 outnumbers 10 you know)

Marquette (NCAA had them a 6, matrix had them an 8)
Notre Dame (NCAA had them a 6, matrix had them an 8)
Wake Forest (NCAA had them a 9, matrix had them an 11)

Temple (NCAA had them a 5, matrix had them a 3)
Northern Iowa (NCAA had them a 9, matrix had them a 7)
San Diego State (NCAA had them an 11, matrix had them a 9)

Ironically, Marquette and San Diego State were on both lists. I don't like that the overseeded and underseeded lists for the NCAA's seem to follow a pattern of BCS conferences being overseeded and other conferences being underseeded. I was actually shocked at Marquette's 6. After the East bracket was listed and they said Notre Dame was still waiting, I went down who was still left and found Notre Dame, Villanova, and Louisville hadn't been chosen. I was thinking that one of them had been left out since had they put 8 teams in they would likely spread them 2 in each conference. Well, the South had 3 Big East teams instead. The Big East was loaded with not only 8 bids but 7 teams seeded 6 or higher and 5 teams seeded 3 or higher. This is why the teams aren't more spread out. The seeds were 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 6, 6, and 9. You had to put two of the top 5 together and it makes more sense to put a 3 with a 1 than a 2 (2 and 3 meet in the Sweet 16). With 6 teams in bottom half seeds, you had to force two pairs teams to meet in the Sweet 16). I read somewhere the committee tried to pair teams that met once (Villanova and Notre Dame and West Virginia and Marquette). By contrast, Villanova and Marquette met twice in the regular season and also in the tournament). They could've moved Marquette and Notre Dame up to 5's I guess. Or down to 8's (where they probably should've been).

You can either place the top four seeds in the region with regard to S-Curve or with regard to geography. I tended to to it by geography this year and the NCAA seemed to do so as well (except for moving New Mexico to the East). Did the committee do West Virginia a favor keeping them in the East with Kentucky rather than pair the Mountaineers with Duke (assuming West Virginia was the #5 on the S-Curve, they would never pair Syracuse and West Virginia 1-2 in the same region). Or they could have put Duke in the East and Kentucky in the South. I think having the worst #1 and worst #2 in the same bracket seemed unfair. Baylor also seems like a weak #3 but then again they may be playing in Houston. I have to think that the Midwest was the hardest with Kansas, Ohio State, Georgetown, Maryland, Michigan State, and Tennessee as the top 6, which is ironic considering Kansas is the overall #1. Another thing that surprised me a little was Kentucky assigned to New Orleans. The main ones I saw had the Cats in Milwaukee. It also cost Kentucky the right to host the play in winner (Kansas was disqualified since they were at a Thur/Sat site). Maybe they should've let Syracuse get the play in winner anyway since Buffalo is a lot closer to Dayton than Jacksonville is). Of course it could just be everything favoring Duke.

And my condolences to those of you sent to Spokane. Well except for Houston and New Mexico State. You should be happy you're even in the field, you can't be picky. Then again, Spokane is a step up from last year (Boise).

Tune in later this week for Schmolik Bracket Analysis! Don't pick your bracket without first looking at Schmolik Bracket Analysis!

Schmolik

Final 2010 Schmolik 64 Comments

2010-03-14T16:57:00.003-04:00

Hello, college basketball fans!

My final Schmolik 64 is complete. Here's my rationale behind my picks.

West Virginia got the last #1 seed over Duke. Winning the Big East tournament was in my opinion bigger than winning the ACC tournament. In addition, West Virginia also has wins over Villanova (at Villanova), Georgetown, and Pittsburgh. Similar logic holds as Georgetown is my last #2 seed over New Mexico. Despite their rough stretch, they won 6 games over teams in the top 15 RPI.

On the end, it came down to Illinois, Mississippi State, Rhode Island, Virginia Tech, and Florida. I'm sure most people have cried favoritism but I posted two polls on CBS Sports.com comparing the last few bubble teams. Illinois won both polls, one with the names and one with "blind resumes". Illinois was chosen despite having by far the highest RPI of the five teams. So technically I didn't pick Illinois, the fans at CBS Sports did. If the committee continues to go with "quality wins" as a big deciding factor, Illinois has three wins over top 25 teams, more than the other four teams combined. They also have the most top 50 wins (five). I think it's going to come down to these five for the last spot. I don't think Illinois should get in over Minnesota (Minnesota is also in).

Schmolik

Final 2010 Schmolik 64

2010-03-14T16:51:00.002-04:00

2010 Schmolik 64

Hello, college basketball fans!

Welcome to the Final 2010 Schmolik 64!

Regional matchups in the Final Four are Midwest vs West and East vs South

Automatic bids in CAPS

MIDWEST REGIONAL (St. Louis, MO Fri/Sun March 26-28)

Oklahoma City, OK (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
1 KANSAS (32-2) vs 16 WINTHROP (17-13)
8 Gonzaga (25-8) vs 9 WASHINGTON (24-9)

San Jose, CA (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
5 Richmond (26-7) vs 12 Unlv (24-8)
4 Villanova (24-7) vs 13 MURRAY STATE (28-4)

Jacksonville, FL (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
6 Maryland (22-8) vs 11 SIENA (27-6)
3 Pittsburgh (24-8) vs 14 UC SANTA BARBARA (19-9)

Milwaukee, WI (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
7 SAN DIEGO STATE (23-8) vs 10 Utah State (26-7)
2 OHIO STATE (27-7) vs 15 HOUSTON (18-15)

WEST REGIONAL (Salt Lake City, UT Thur/Sat March 25-27)

Buffalo, NY (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
1 WEST VIRGINIA (27-6) vs 16 VERMONT (25-9)
8 Georgia Tech (21-12) vs 9 Missouri (22-10)

New Orleans, LA (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
5 Vanderbilt (23-8) vs 12 Texas El Paso (26-6)
4 Michigan State (24-8) vs 13 CORNELL (25-4)

San Jose, CA (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
6 Xavier (24-8) vs 11 Louisville (20-12)
3 New Mexico (29-4) vs 14 MONTANA (20-9)

Oklahoma City, OK (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
7 NORTHERN IOWA (28-4) vs 10 Wake Forest (19-10)
2 Kansas State (25-6) vs 15 NORTH TEXAS (22-8)

EAST REGIONAL (Syracuse, NY Thur/Sat March 25-27)

Milwaukee, WI (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
1 KENTUCKY (32-2) vs 16 Play In Winner: LEHIGH (22-10) vs ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF (17-15)
8 Clemson (21-10) vs 9 Notre Dame (23-11)

Spokane, WA (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
5 Texas A&M (22-9) vs 12 NEW MEXICO STATE (21-11)
4 Wisconsin (23-8) vs 13 OHIO (20-14)

Providence, RI (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
6 Brigham Young (28-5) vs 11 Minnesota (21-13)
3 TEMPLE (27-5) vs 14 WOFFORD (26-8)

Providence, RI (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
7 Texas (24-9) vs 10 Florida State (22-9)
2 Georgetown (23-10) vs 15 ROBERT MORRIS (23-11)

SOUTH REGIONAL (Houston, TX Fri/Sun March 26-28)

Buffalo, NY (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
1 Syracuse (28-4) vs 16 E. TENNESSEE STATE (19-14)
8 OLD DOMINION (26-8) vs 9 ST. MARY'S (25-5)

Spokane, WA (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
5 Tennessee (25-8) vs 12 Illinois (19-14)
4 Baylor (24-7) vs 13 OAKLAND (24-8)

New Orleans, LA (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
6 BUTLER (25-4) vs 11 Marquette (22-11)
3 Purdue (27-5) vs 14 SAM HOUSTON STATE (21-7)

Jacksonville, FL (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
7 Oklahoma State (22-10) vs 10 California (23-10)
2 DUKE (29-5) vs 15 MORGAN STATE (27-9)

Big East: 8
Big 12: 7
Big 10: 6
ACC: 6
MWC: 4
SEC: 3
A-10: 3
Pac 10: 2
WCC: 2
C-USA: 2
WAC: 2
One bid: 20

Last Team In: Illinois

Just Missed: Mississippi State, Virginia Tech, Rhode Island, Florida

Schmolik

Final Schmolik Bubble Watch (3/14/10)

2010-03-14T12:23:00.000-04:00

Schmolik Bubble Watch

Hello, college basketball fans!

Updated: March 14, 2010

It's time for Schmolik's Bubble Watch. For many teams, this is a make or break week. Bubble Watch analyzes who is on the bubble and their chances of making the NCAA's.

First, teams that I feel are locks for the tournament. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind during the week. Automatic Bids not included. (* Still alive for automatic bid).

ACC: Duke*, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech*
A-10: Temple*, Xavier, Richmond*
Big East: Syracuse, West Virginia*, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown*, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame
Big 10: Ohio State*, Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Minnesota*
Big 12: Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri
C-USA: Texas El Paso
MWC: New Mexico, Brigham Young, UNLV*, San Diego State*
Pac 10: California
SEC: Kentucky*, Vanderbilt, Tennessee,
WAC: Utah State*
WCC: Gonzaga

Bubble Teams Still Alive for Automatic Bid
SEC: Mississippi State

Total # Locks: 34
Minimum # At Large Locks: 33
Automatic Bids: 31
Remaining Bids: 1
As of Now: 5 teams in contention. If Mississippi State wins, they are the one.

RPI Data courtesy of CBSSports.com as of March 14, 2010 morning.

RPI/ Conf or Non Conf RPI: Good RPI is 30's or higher, marginal is 40's, poor is 50's or below.
*Last 10 games: 7-3 or better is a strength, 5-5 or lower a weakness.
SOS/Non Conf SOS: Good is top 20, bad is below 100.
Top 25 games: Strength: Two or more, Weakness: Zero
Top 50 games: Strength: Four or more, Weakness: One or fewer
Bad losses: Weakness: Home losses to teams below 100 in RPI, Loss to teams below 200 in RPI

* CBSSports.com lists “Last 10” in their RPI data. Although the last 10 games or last 12 games has been removed as an official criteria, the official bracket procedures state “chronological results” are considered so a poor or strong finish may still matter.

Bubble Teams (In/Out as of Last Schmolik 64 Update)

ACC

Virginia Tech (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (40)
Weaknesses: RPI (59), Non Conf RPI (98), Non Conf SOS (339!), no Top 25 wins

Tournament Result: Lost ACC 1st round game to Miami (seeded 12th in conference).

Atlantic 10

Rhode Island (Out)

Strengths: RPI (40), Conf RPI (5!)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (81), 4-6 in last 10 games, no top 25 wins, only one top 50 win

Tournament Result: Lost A-10 SF game to Temple

Outlook:

Big 10

Illinois (Out)

Strengths: Three Top 25 wins (Vanderbilt, at Wisconsin, vs Wisconsin in Big 10 tournament), Five Top 50 wins
Weaknesses: RPI (74), Non Conf RPI (124), Non Conf SOS (111), 4-6 in last 10 games, Bubble Loss: Home to Minnesota

Tournament Result: Lost Big 10 SF game to Ohio State (double OT)

Outlook:

SEC

Florida (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (37), Bubble Wins (Mississippi State),

Weaknesses: RPI (56), Non Conf RPI (78), Non Conf SOS (110), 4-6 in last 10 games, Bubble Loss (vs Mississippi State in SEC Tournament), Bad Loss: Home vs South Alabama

Tournament Update: Lost to Mississippi State in the SEC SF.

Mississippi State (Out)

Strengths: Bubble Wins: vs Florida in SEC Tournament, Sweep over Mississippi

Weaknesses: RPI (54), Non Conf RPI (69), Non Conf SOS (208), Bubble loss: at Florida, Bad Loss: Home vs Rider

Should Be In If: Only way to be 100% sure is to win
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses

Schmolik

Schmolik Bubble Watch (3/13/10 AM) - Updated RPI #'s

2010-03-13T08:55:00.001-05:00

Schmolik Bubble Watch

Hello, college basketball fans!

Updated: March 12, 2010

It's time for Schmolik's Bubble Watch. For many teams, this is a make or break week. Bubble Watch analyzes who is on the bubble and their chances of making the NCAA's.

First, teams that I feel are locks for the tournament. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind during the week. Automatic Bids not included. (* Still alive for automatic bid).

ACC: Duke*, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech*
A-10: Temple*, Xavier*, Richmond*
Big East: Syracuse, West Virginia*, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown*, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame
Big 10: Ohio State*, Purdue*, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas*, Kansas State*, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri
C-USA: Texas El Paso*
MWC: New Mexico, Brigham Young, UNLV*, San Diego State*
Pac 10: California*
SEC: Kentucky*, Vanderbilt*, Tennessee*
WAC: Utah State*
WCC: Gonzaga

Bubble Teams Still Alive for Automatic Bid
A-10: Rhode Island
Big 10: Minnesota, Illinois
Pac 10: Washington
SEC: Mississippi State

Party Crashers Still Alive for Automatic Bid
ACC: Miami, NC State
C-USA: Houston
WAC: New Mexico State

Total # Locks: 35 (not counting Big East, Big 12, and MWC champs)
Minimum # At Large Locks: 29
Automatic Bids: 31
Remaining Bids: 5
As of Now: 7 teams in contention. I may return some teams to consideration between now and Sunday.

Stats courtesy of CBSSports.com. Rankings are as of March 12, 2010 morning.

Thursday/Early Friday Update: Butler now automatic bid, Marquette, Notre Dame, Utah State, UNLV added to locks. Arizona State, Seton Hall, South Florida removed.

Friday Update: Mississippi removed from consideration. Kent State added to bubble list.

RPI/ Conf or Non Conf RPI: Good RPI is 30's or higher, marginal is 40's, poor is 50's or below.
*Last 10 games: 7-3 or better is a strength, 5-5 or lower a weakness.
SOS/Non Conf SOS: Good is top 20, bad is below 100.
Top 25 games: Strength: Two or more, Weakness: Zero
Top 50 games: Strength: Four or more, Weakness: One or fewer
Bad losses: Weakness: Home losses to teams below 100 in RPI, Loss to teams below 200 in RPI

* CBSSports.com lists “Last 10” in their RPI data. Although the last 10 games or last 12 games has been removed as an official criteria, the official bracket procedures state “chronological results” are considered so a poor or strong finish may still matter.

Bubble Teams (In/Out as of Last Schmolik 64 Update)

ACC

Virginia Tech (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (39), Bubble wins: at Georgia Tech
Weaknesses: RPI (56), Non Conf RPI (100), Non Conf SOS (342!), no Top 25 wins

Tournament Result: Lost ACC 1st round game to Miami (seeded 12th in conference).

Outlook: As of Friday AM, Virginia Tech’s RPI was 52. Expect it to drop after losing to Miami. Great ACC profile (although loss to Miami hurts), horrible non conference profile. If the Selection Committee wishes to make a statement about non conference scheduling, look for the Hokies to get the shaft. If Georgia Tech upsets Miami, don’t be surprised if Georgia Tech passes Virginia Tech in the ACC pecking order.

Atlantic 10

Rhode Island (Out)

Strengths: RPI (38), Non Conf RPI (5!)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (85), 5-5 in last 10 games, no top 25 wins, only one top 50 win

Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final, beating Temple
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose to Temple

Outlook: If the A-10 will get another at large bid, it will be Rhode Island. They have the highest RPI, a terrific non conference RPI, and wins over Dayton and Charlotte.

Big East

No Bubble Teams

Big 10

Illinois (Out)

Strengths: Three Top 25 wins (Vanderbilt, at Wisconsin, vs Wisconsin in Big 10 tournament), Five Top 50 wins
Weaknesses: RPI (69), Non Conf RPI (123), Non Conf SOS (105), 5-5 in last 10 games (including 5 of last 7), Bubble Loss: Home to Minnesota

Should Be In If: They make the Big 10 final, beating Ohio State
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose.

Outlook: Clearly have only one strength (quality wins), but it’s the one that the NCAA (at least according to almost everyone in the media) seems to like the most and teams have in the past gotten away with poor RPI numbers and poor finishes if they have a few quality wins. The RPI did crack the top 70 although still a very questionable RPI (and a loss to Ohio State probably drops it below 70 although I imagine not by much). Minnesota winning throws a wrench into things as the closer the two get in profile, you have to give the edge to Minnesota.

Minnesota (Out)

Strengths: Two Top 25 wins (vs Butler, Wisconsin), Four Top 50 wins
Weaknesses: RPI (68), Conf RPI (61), Non Conf RPI (74), Bad Losses: at Indiana, Home to Michigan

Should Be In If: They make the Big 10 final, beating Purdue.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose.

Outlook: With a lot of teams falling out, Minnesota is making a last ditch case to get in. They clearly have the top wins and even better a win at Illinois. In many ways, they are just like Illinois, lousy RPI numbers but good wins. Those bottom feeder Big 10 teams really hurt the Big 10 in RPI, not only Illinois and Minnesota but Ohio State and Michigan State (not even in the top 25). In conference, Illinois did finish a game ahead and had a tougher Big 10 RPI/SOS. Here’s a couple of scenarios I didn’t think were possible at the start of the week: 1) Minnesota would be the 5th Big 10 team instead of Illinois, 2) The Big 10 could actually get SIX teams in the NCAA’s. Hey, why not? Should Illinois and Minnesota play in the Big 10 final, can you say only the winner gets in?

Big 12
No Bubble Teams

Conf USA

No Bubble Teams

MWC

No bubble teams.

Pac 10

Washington (In)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (23), 8-2 in last 10 games, Two top 25 wins (Texas A&M, California)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (67), Bad Losses: Home to USC and Home to Oregon

Should Be In If: Probably can’t be sure unless they win it all.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose.

Outlook: The way things are going for Washington, it looks like they should be in. Certainly Stanford’s upset helped them win but prevented the Huskies from getting a quality win. Of course they can remove all doubt by winning over Cal.

SEC

Florida (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (37), Bubble Wins (Mississippi State),

Weaknesses: RPI (54), Non Conf RPI (77), Non Conf SOS (107), 4-6 in last 10 games, Bubble Loss (vs Mississippi State in SEC Tournament), Bad Loss: Home vs South Alabama

Tournament Update: Lost to Mississippi State in the SEC SF.

Outlook: Florida had beaten Mississippi State in the regular season already but in Gainesville. You would think MSU’s win in the SEC would be worth more. Still, considering Mississippi State had a bye helped. In addition, while Florida beat Michigan State and Florida State, Mississippi State has no top 25 wins. I’m not convinced that MSU is an automatic over Florida. The worst thing that happened Friday to the Gators was them losing to Mississippi State. The second worst thing probably was Minnesota beating Michigan State. It put Minnesota into bubble consideration and took away one of Florida’s Top 25 wins, leaving them just Tennessee.

Mississippi State (Out)

Strengths: Bubble Wins: vs Florida in SEC Tournament, Sweep over Mississippi

Weaknesses: RPI (63), Conf RPI (51), Non Conf RPI (71), Non Conf SOS (209), no top 25 wins, just one top 50 win, Bubble loss: at Florida, Bad Loss: Home vs Rider

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses

Outlook: See Florida. While I don’t think it’s a done deal Mississippi State will be considered ahead of Florida, I guarantee they will be considered ahead of Ole Miss or there will be a lot of bad blood in that state between the two schools this upcoming year.

Other

None

Schmolik

Schmolik Bubble Watch (3/13/10 - Early Morning)

2010-03-13T08:13:00.001-05:00

Hello, college basketball fans!

I don't have updated RPI numbers and a lot of games were played yesterday so I will give you the short summary of my current bubble situation.

I feel San Diego State's win over New Mexico and Georgia Tech's win over Maryland put both of them in the field. Missisippi's loss in my (although not Jerry Palm's) mind removes them from bubble consideration. Meanwhile, many teams won yesterday to improve their cases which I feel knock out Wichita State and Kent State from at large consideration. My latest bubble has 7 teams competiting for a maximum of 5 spots (which could shrink if UTEP or Utah State loses or if somehow Miami or NC State wins the ACC). As a huge fan of one of these seven teams, I now have to root for the party crashers to lose. Let me warn Houston, New Mexico State, Miami, and NC State in advance, if you get in, I'm sending you to Spokane. I'm saying it now. I will do whatever I can do to send you there. If you're going to crash the party, you better be happy to go there. You're not getting a trip to California or Florida or New Orleans or some place nice. Then again, at least it's not Boise. Chances are also good that if you are the last team or last two teams I will put you in Spokane as well.

Teams that are still alive in conference tournaments:
Rhode Island
Washington
Mississippi State
Minnesota
Illinois

Teams done, waiting:
Florida
Virginia Tech

Schmolik Bubble Watch - Fri 3/12/10 6pm

2010-03-12T18:18:00.000-05:00

Schmolik Bubble Watch

Hello, college basketball fans!

Updated: March 12, 2010

It's time for Schmolik's Bubble Watch. For many teams, this is a make or break week. Bubble Watch analyzes who is on the bubble and their chances of making the NCAA's.

First, teams that I feel are locks for the tournament. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind during the week. Automatic Bids not included.

ACC: Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest
A-10: Temple, Xavier, Richmond
Big East: Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame
Big 10: Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri
C-USA: Texas El Paso
MWC: New Mexico, Brigham Young, UNLV
Pac 10: California
SEC: Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
WAC: Utah State
WCC: Gonzaga

Total # Locks: 35 (Big East and Big 12 Champs guaranteed from the “locks”)
Minimum # At Large Locks: 27
Automatic Bids: 31
Remaining Bids: 7
As of Now: 11 teams in contention. I may return some teams to consideration between now and Sunday.

Stats courtesy of CBSSports.com. Rankings are as of March 12, 2010 morning.

Thursday/Early Friday Update: Butler now automatic bid, Marquette, Notre Dame, Utah State, UNLV added to locks. Arizona State, Seton Hall, South Florida removed.

Friday Update: Mississippi removed from consideration. Kent State added to bubble list.

RPI/ Conf or Non Conf RPI: Good RPI is 30's or higher, marginal is 40's, poor is 50's or below.
*Last 10 games: 7-3 or better is a strength, 5-5 or lower a weakness.
SOS/Non Conf SOS: Good is top 20, bad is below 100.
Top 25 games: Strength: Two or more, Weakness: Zero
Top 50 games: Strength: Four or more, Weakness: One or fewer
Bad losses: Weakness: Home losses to teams below 100 in RPI, Loss to teams below 200 in RPI

* CBSSports.com lists “Last 10” in their RPI data. Although the last 10 games or last 12 games has been removed as an official criteria, the official bracket procedures state “chronological results” are considered so a poor or strong finish may still matter.

Bubble Teams (In/Out as of Last Schmolik 64 Update)

ACC

Virginia Tech (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (32), 6-4 in last 10 (after today’s loss), Bubble wins: at Georgia Tech
Weaknesses: RPI: 52, Non Conf RPI (98), Non Conf SOS (339!), no Top 25 wins

Tournament Result: Lost ACC 1st round game to Miami (seeded 12th in conference).

Outlook: As of Friday AM, Virginia Tech’s RPI was 52. Expect it to drop after losing to Miami. Great ACC profile (although loss to Miami hurts), horrible non conference profile. If the Selection Committee wishes to make a statement about non conference scheduling, look for the Hokies to get the shaft. If Georgia Tech upsets Miami, don’t be surprised if Georgia Tech passes Virginia Tech in the ACC pecking order.

Georgia Tech (In)

Strengths: Four Top 50 wins (including Duke), Overall SOS (20)

Weaknesses: 4-6 in last 10 games, Non Conf SOS (148), Bubble Losses (Home vs Virginia Tech, Neutral vs Dayton), Conference Record (7-9), although still in Top 50 in Conference RPI

Should Be In If: They beat Maryland, making the ACC SF.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose to Maryland in the ACC QF.

Outlook: RPI numbers are respectable, but sub .500 conference record could haunt them. Then again, given the bad losses by Wake Forest and Clemson on Thursday, at least give Georgia Tech for winning a game (vs. North Carolina and I’d imagine a bunch of rowdy Tar Heel fans).

Atlantic 10

Rhode Island (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (5!), Bubble Wins: at Dayton, Charlotte (if you consider them a bubble team)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (104), 5-5 in last 10 games, no top 25 wins, only one top 50 win

Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final, beating Temple
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose to Temple

Outlook: If the A-10 will get another at large bid, it will be Rhode Island. They have the highest RPI, a terrific non conference RPI, and wins over Dayton and Charlotte. If a fourth at large comes from the A-10, you would expect the Rams to be that team.

Dayton (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (14), Non Conf SOS (20)

Weaknesses: RPI (52), Conf RPI (89), 5-5 in last 10 games

Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the A-10 SF, beating Xavier.

Outlook: Needs to beat Xavier to have any chance, still would have a hard time justifying a bid over Rhode Island (who beat Dayton at Dayton).

Big East

No Bubble Teams

Big 10

Illinois (Out)

Strengths: Four Top 25 wins (Vanderbilt, Michigan State, at Wisconsin, vs Wisconsin in Big 10 tournament)
Weaknesses: RPI (75), Non Conf RPI (124), Non Conf SOS (105), 5-5 in last 10 games (including 5 of last 7)

Should Be In If: They make the Big 10 final, beating Ohio State
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose.

Outlook: Clearly have only one strength (quality wins), but it’s the one that the NCAA (at least according to almost everyone in the media) seems to like the most and teams have in the past gotten away with poor RPI numbers and poor finishes if they have a few quality wins. I can’t imagine Illinois gets in with an RPI in the 70’s. Let’s see how much the RPI goes up after beating Wisconsin and lose to Ohio State. If it gets into the mid 60’s, they may get some consideration.

Big 12
No Bubble Teams

Conf USA

No Bubble Teams

MWC

San Diego State (In)

Strengths: RPI (32), Non Conf RPI (38), 8-2 in last 10 games

Weaknesses: Non Conf SOS (125), Bubble Loss: at Arizona State

Should Be In If: Makes the MWC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses in the MWC SF

Outlook: With Arizona State, UAB, Memphis, and Kent State choking on Thursday, I find it ridiculous for anyone to say this is not a tournament team. I did say they would be comfortably in if they make the final but I’ll leave them on the bubble to be consistent with earlier this week. The loss by Arizona State in the Pac 10 tournament probably widens the gap between the two so the head to head loss shouldn’t be a factor anymore.

Pac 10

Washington (In)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (23), 8-2 in last 10 games, Two top 25 wins (Texas A&M, California)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (67), Bad Loss: Home to Oregon

Should Be In If: Probably can’t be sure unless they win it all.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the Pac 10 final.

Outlook: Well the path should be clearer for Washington to make the final (then again if Stanford beat ASU, they can certainly beat Washington). In some ways, Washington had a better profile than the Sun Devils anyway (Washington beat Cal and Texas A&M). It’s pretty clear if Washington makes the final they will be considered the 2nd best Pac 10 team and if more bubble teams trip on their feet this week, you have to say making the final and losing to Berkeley will be enough for the Huskies (no, not the U Conn Huskies).

SEC

Florida (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (31), Bubble Wins (Mississippi State), Two Top 25 wins (Michigan State, Tennessee)

Weaknesses: RPI (51), Non Conf RPI (77), Non Conf SOS (106), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bad Loss: Home vs South Alabama

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC SF and loses to Vanderbilt or makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses next game to Mississippi State or SF to Mississippi

Outlook: Losing to either of the Mississippi schools would hurt their chances as it gives either a chance to pass them in the SEC pecking order.

Mississippi State (Out)

Strengths: Bubble Wins: Sweep over Mississippi

Weaknesses: RPI (68), Conf RPI (58), Non Conf RPI (70), Non Conf SOS (211), 5-5 in last 10 games, no top 25 wins, Bubble loss: at Florida, Bad Loss: Home vs Rider

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Florida

Outlook: I’ll leave them in for now even though their only strength is their sweep over Ole Miss, which I feel removed themselves from consideration after losing to Tennessee because their profile probably improves if they beat Florida. If they lose to Florida, they will likely fall out.

Other

Wichita State (Out)

Strengths: Conf RPI (37)
Weaknesses: Just one top 50 win (Northern Iowa), Non Conf RPI (86), Non Conf SOS (288!), Bad losses (at Evansville)

Tournament Result: Lost to Northern Iowa in MVC final

Outlook: Honestly only a really weak bubble is keeping them in the discussion. Finishing 2nd in the MVC and beating Northern Iowa is probably the only positive they have and that non conference SOS is terrible. They don’t even have “strong finish” in their basket. Should a lot of bubble teams win this week, I will likely take them off the bubble list. So far so good for the Shockers.

Kent State (In because of automatic bid)

Strengths: Non Conf SOS (26), 8-2 in last 10 games, regular season MAC champion, Bubble Win: UAB (if they are still a bubble team)
Weaknesses: Conf RPI (56), No top 25 wins, one top 50 win, Bad losses: Home vs Green Bay, Home vs Bowling Green

Tournament Road: Lost to Ohio in MAC QF’s (1st game played).
Outlook: I’m running out of teams here so I added them. They did win the regular season MAC title. The only team in the top 54 (as of Friday) that is not either in automatically, a lock, or a bubble team is UAB, who Kent State beat. I thought they suffered a bad loss. Ohio’s RPI was over 100 but just barely. It didn’t hurt their overall RPI as much as I thought. I think they are a long shot but a few more chokers and maybe they can still make it in.

Teams who I feel can play themselves into the tournament with a good week (list is not all inclusive). Teams previously listed that were eliminated have been removed.

Big 10: Minnesota

Schmolik

Schmolik Bubble Watch (Update 3/12/10 Early Morning)

2010-03-12T06:28:00.000-05:00

Schmolik Bubble Watch

Hello, college basketball fans!

Updated: March 12, 2010

It's time for Schmolik's Bubble Watch. For many teams, this is a make or break week. Bubble Watch analyzes who is on the bubble and their chances of making the NCAA's.

First, teams that I feel are locks for the tournament. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind during the week. Automatic Bids not included.

ACC: Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest
A-10: Temple, Xavier, Richmond
Big East: Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame
Big 10: Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri
C-USA: Texas El Paso
MWC: New Mexico, Brigham Young, UNLV
Pac 10: California
SEC: Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
WAC: Utah State
WCC: Gonzaga

Total # Locks: 37
Minimum # At Large Locks: 27
Automatic Bids: 31
Remaining Bids: 7
As of Now: 11 teams in contention

Stats courtesy of CBSSports.com. Rankings are as of March 11, 2010 morning.

Thursday Update: Butler now automatic bid, Marquette, Notre Dame, Utah State added to locks. Arizona State, Seton Hall, South Florida removed.

Early morning Friday Update: UNLV added to locks

RPI/ Conf or Non Conf RPI: Good RPI is 30's or higher, marginal is 40's, poor is 50's or below.
*Last 10 games: 7-3 or better is a strength, 5-5 or lower a weakness.
SOS/Non Conf SOS: Good is top 20, bad is below 100.
Top 25 games: Strength: Two or more, Weakness: Zero
Top 50 games: Strength: Four or more, Weakness: One or fewer
Bad losses: Weakness: Home losses to teams below 100 in RPI, Loss to teams below 200 in RPI

* CBSSports.com lists “Last 10” in their RPI data. Although the last 10 games or last 12 games has been removed as an official criteria, the official bracket procedures state “chronological results” are considered so a poor or strong finish may still matter.

Bubble Teams (In/Out as of Last Schmolik 64 Update)

ACC

Virginia Tech (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (32), 7-3 in last 10, Bubble wins: at Georgia Tech
Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (98), Non Conf SOS (339!), no Top 25 wins

Should Be In If: They win one ACC tournament game
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose their first ACC game (losing to Miami would hurt)

Outlook: Great ACC profile, horrible non conference profile. If the Selection Committee wishes to make a statement about non conference scheduling, look for the Hokies to get the shaft. A win in the ACC should remove all doubt.

Georgia Tech (In)

Strengths: Four Top 50 wins (including Duke), Overall SOS (19)

Weaknesses: 4-6 in last 10 games, Non Conf SOS (153), Bubble Losses (Home vs Virginia Tech, Neutral vs Dayton), Conference Record (7-9), although still in Top 50 in Conference RPI

Should Be In If: They beat Maryland, making the ACC SF.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose to Maryland in the ACC QF.

Outlook: RPI numbers are respectable, but sub .500 conference record could haunt them. Then again, given the bad losses by Wake Forest and Clemson on Thursday, at least give Georgia Tech for winning a game (vs. North Carolina and I’d imagine a bunch of rowdy Tar Heel fans).

Atlantic 10

Rhode Island (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (5!), Bubble Wins: at Dayton, Charlotte (if you consider them a bubble team)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (101), 5-5 in last 10 games, no top 25 wins, only one top 50 win

Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the A-10 SF, maybe still alive if they lose to St. Louis in the A-10 QF.

Outlook: If the A-10 will get another at large bid, it will be Rhode Island. They have the highest RPI, a terrific non conference RPI, and wins over Dayton and Charlotte. I think they should at least be in the discussion now but beating Rhode Island will clearly establish them as the #4 team in the A-10.

Dayton (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (15), Non Conf SOS (20)

Weaknesses: 5-5 in last 10 games, RPI (51), Conf RPI (89)

Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the A-10 SF, beating Xavier.

Outlook: Needs to beat Xavier to have any chance, still would have a hard time justifying a bid over Rhode Island (who beat Dayton at Dayton).

Big East

No Bubble Teams

Big 10

Illinois (Out)

Strengths: Three Top 25 wins (Vanderbilt, Michigan State, at Wisconsin)
Weaknesses: RPI (73), Conf RPI (50), Non Conf RPI (123), 5-5 in last 10 games (including 5 of last 6)

Should Be In If: They make the Big 10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beat Wisconsin, most likely can’t afford to lose to either Iowa or Northwestern should either beat Ohio State.

Outlook: Clearly have only one strength (quality wins), but it’s the one that the NCAA (at least according to almost everyone in the media) seems to like the most and teams have in the past gotten away with poor RPI numbers and poor finishes if they have a few quality wins. I can’t imagine Illinois gets in with an RPI in the 70’s. Let’s see how much the RPI goes up if they beat Wisconsin and lose to Ohio State. If it gets into the mid 60’s, they may get some consideration. The Illini should also root for Clemson to do well to get into the RPI Top 25 and give Illinois another top 25 win and for Michigan State to at least maintain a Top 25 RPI. If they beat Wisconsin, they could potentially have five top 25 wins.

Big 12
No Bubble Teams

Conf USA

No Bubble Teams

MWC

San Diego State (In)

Strengths: RPI (34), Non Conf RPI (34), 8-2 in last 10 games

Weaknesses: Non Conf SOS (113), Bubble Loss: at Arizona State

Should Be In If: Makes the MWC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses in the MWC SF

Outlook: With Arizona State, UAB, Memphis, and Kent State choking on Thursday, I find it ridiculous for anyone to say this is not a tournament team. I did say they would be comfortably in if they make the final but I’ll leave them on the bubble to be consistent with earlier this week. The loss by Arizona State in the Pac 10 tournament probably widens the gap between the two so the head to head loss shouldn’t be a factor anymore.

Pac 10

Washington (In)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (23), 8-2 in last 10 games, Two top 25 wins (Texas A&M, California)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (67), Bad Loss: Home to Oregon

Should Be In If: Probably can’t be sure unless they win it all.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the Pac 10 final.

Outlook: Well the path should be clearer for Washington to make the final (then again if Stanford beat ASU, they can certainly beat Washington). In some ways, Washington had a better profile than the Sun Devils anyway (Washington beat Cal and Texas A&M). It’s pretty clear if Washington makes the final they will be considered the 2nd best Pac 10 team and if more bubble teams trip on their feet this week, you have to say making the final and losing to Berkeley will be enough for the Huskies (no, not the U Conn Huskies).

SEC

Florida (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (31), Bubble Wins (at Mississippi, Mississippi State), Two Top 25 wins (Michigan State, Tennessee)

Weaknesses: RPI (54), Non Conf RPI (75), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bad Loss: Home vs South Alabama

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC SF and loses to Vanderbilt or makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses next game to Mississippi State or SF to Mississippi

Outlook: Losing to either of the Mississippi schools would hurt their chances as it gives either a chance to pass them in the SEC pecking order.

Mississippi State (Out)

Strengths: Bubble Wins: Sweep over Mississippi

Weaknesses: RPI (67), Conf RPI (60), Non Conf RPI (73), Non Conf SOS (214), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bubble loss: at Florida, Bad Loss: Home vs Rider

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Florida

Outlook: I am seeing a lot of Mississippi in many brackets even though Mississippi State swept them and they tied in conference. To me, Mississippi has to clearly show they are better than MSU to overcome the head to head sweep. That being said, it’s a moot point unless they at least beat Florida. They didn’t beat any of the top four SEC East schools. I think the SEC should get rid of the top two in each division get byes and have the best four teams get byes (like the Big 12). Tennessee and Florida (or at least Tennessee) should have byes instead of the Mississippi schools.

Mississippi (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (31)

Weaknesses: RPI (57), Conf RPI (64), Non Conf SOS (138), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bubble Losses: Home vs Florida, Sweep to Mississippi State, Bad Loss: Home to Arkansas

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Tennessee
Outlook: Honestly I don’t see anything good about Mississippi’s profile. Clearly the win over Tennessee would help but I’m still skeptical, otherwise I better not see their name on Sunday. Should both MSU and Ole Miss win their SF games, I still think you have to take MSU first before Ole Miss.

Other

Wichita State (Out)

Strengths: Conf RPI (38)
Weaknesses: Just one top 50 win (Northern Iowa), Non Conf RPI (82), Non Conf SOS (286!), Bad losses (at Evansville)

Tournament Result: Lost to Northern Iowa in MVC final

Outlook: Honestly only a really weak bubble is keeping them in the discussion. Finishing 2nd in the MVC and beating Northern Iowa is probably the only positive they have and that non conference SOS is terrible. They don’t even have “strong finish” in their basket. Should a lot of bubble teams win this week, I will likely take them off the bubble list. So far so good for the Shockers.

Teams who I feel can play themselves into the tournament with a good week (list is not all inclusive). Teams previously listed that were eliminated have been removed.

Big 10: Minnesota

Schmolik

Schmolik Bubble Update (Thur. 3/11 11:30pm)

2010-03-11T23:35:00.000-05:00

Schmolik Bubble Watch

Hello, college basketball fans!

Updated: March 11, 2010

It's time for Schmolik's Bubble Watch. For many teams, this is a make or break week. Bubble Watch analyzes who is on the bubble and their chances of making the NCAA's.

First, teams that I feel are locks for the tournament. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind during the week. Automatic Bids not included.

ACC: Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest
A-10: Temple, Xavier, Richmond
Big East: Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame
Big 10: Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri
C-USA: Texas El Paso
MWC: New Mexico, Brigham Young
Pac 10: California
SEC: Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
WAC: Utah State
WCC: Gonzaga

Total # Locks: 36
Minimum # At Large Locks: 26
Automatic Bids: 31
Remaining Bids: 8
As of Now: 12 teams in contention

Stats courtesy of CBSSports.com. Rankings are as of March 11, 2010 morning.

Thursday Update: Butler now automatic bid, Marquette, Notre Dame, Utah State added to locks. Arizona State, Seton Hall, South Florida removed.

RPI/ Conf or Non Conf RPI: Good RPI is 30's or higher, marginal is 40's, poor is 50's or below.
*Last 10 games: 7-3 or better is a strength, 5-5 or lower a weakness.
SOS/Non Conf SOS: Good is top 20, bad is below 100.
Top 25 games: Strength: Two or more, Weakness: Zero
Top 50 games: Strength: Four or more, Weakness: One or fewer
Bad losses: Weakness: Home losses to teams below 100 in RPI, Loss to teams below 200 in RPI

* CBSSports.com lists “Last 10” in their RPI data. Although the last 10 games or last 12 games has been removed as an official criteria, the official bracket procedures state “chronological results” are considered so a poor or strong finish may still matter.

Bubble Teams (In/Out as of Last Schmolik 64 Update)

ACC

Virginia Tech (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (32), 7-3 in last 10, Bubble wins: at Georgia Tech
Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (98), Non Conf SOS (339!), no Top 25 wins

Should Be In If: They win one ACC tournament game
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose their first ACC game (losing to Miami would hurt)

Outlook: Great ACC profile, horrible non conference profile. If the Selection Committee wishes to make a statement about non conference scheduling, look for the Hokies to get the shaft. A win in the ACC should remove all doubt.

Georgia Tech (In)

Strengths: Four Top 50 wins (including Duke), Overall SOS (19)

Weaknesses: 4-6 in last 10 games, Non Conf SOS (153), Bubble Losses (Home vs Virginia Tech, Neutral vs Dayton), Conference Record (7-9), although still in Top 50 in Conference RPI

Should Be In If: They beat Maryland, making the ACC SF.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose to Maryland in the ACC QF.

Outlook: RPI numbers are respectable, but sub .500 conference record could haunt them.

Atlantic 10

Rhode Island (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (5!), Bubble Wins: at Dayton, Charlotte (if you consider them a bubble team)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (101), 5-5 in last 10 games, no top 25 wins, only one top 50 win

Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the A-10 SF, maybe still alive if they lose to St. Louis in the A-10 QF.

Outlook: If the A-10 will get another at large bid, it will be Rhode Island. They have the highest RPI, a terrific non conference RPI, and wins over Dayton and Charlotte. Would have to beat St. Joe’s at home for consideration and may have to beat St. Louis to at least get into the discussion.

Dayton (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (15), Non Conf SOS (20)

Weaknesses: 5-5 in last 10 games, RPI (51), Conf RPI (89)

Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the A-10 SF, beating Xavier.

Outlook: Needs to beat Xavier to have any chance, still would have a hard time justifying a bid over Rhode Island (who beat Dayton at Dayton) unless Rhode Island loses to St. Joe’s.

Big East

No Bubble Teams

Big 10

Illinois (Out)

Strengths: Three Top 25 wins (Vanderbilt, Michigan State, at Wisconsin)
Weaknesses: RPI (73), Conf RPI (50), Non Conf RPI (123), 5-5 in last 10 games (including 5 of last 6)

Should Be In If: They make the Big 10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beat Wisconsin, most likely can’t afford to lose to either Iowa or Northwestern should either beat Ohio State.

Outlook: Clearly have only one strength (quality wins), but it’s the one that the NCAA (at least according to almost everyone in the media) seems to like the most and teams have in the past gotten away with poor RPI numbers and poor finishes if they have a few quality wins. I can’t imagine Illinois gets in with an RPI in the 70’s. Let’s see how much the RPI goes up if they beat Wisconsin and lose to Ohio State. If it gets into the mid 60’s, they may get some consideration. The Illini should also root for Clemson to do well to get into the RPI Top 25 and give Illinois another top 25 win and for Michigan State to at least maintain a Top 25 RPI. If they beat Wisconsin, they could potentially have five top 25 wins.

Big 12
No Bubble Teams

Conf USA

No Bubble Teams

MWC

UNLV (In)

Strengths: 7-3 in last 10 games, Two Top 25 wins (at New Mexico, BYU), Four Top 50 wins

Weaknesses: Non Conference RPI (56), Non Conference SOS (202), Bad Loss: Home vs Utah

Should Be In If: Wins one MWC game.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose

Outlook: Pretty much avoid the bad loss and they should be OK. Surprising that their non conference profile is so bad (and that’s including a win vs Louisville). Do teams not want to go to Vegas anymore? They got swept by Utah this year, could a team outside the top 100 beat an NCAA contender three times in a year (UNLV opens the MWC vs Utah), especially on UNLV’s home court?

San Diego State (In)

Strengths: RPI (34), Non Conf RPI (34), 8-2 in last 10 games

Weaknesses: Non Conf SOS (113), Bubble Loss: at Arizona State

Should Be In If: Makes the MWC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses in the MWC SF

Outlook: A pretty good profile. I think a win and their chances are better than most people think. There isn’t much a reason to reject them and considering a weak bubble, they shouldn’t be rejected. Many teams were hoping St. Mary’s would not beat Gonzaga. San Diego State was probably indifferent and probably are better off without another bubble team that beat them earlier this year.

Pac 10

Washington (In)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (23), 8-2 in last 10 games, Two top 25 wins (Texas A&M, California)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (67), Bad Loss: Home to Oregon

Should Be In If: Probably can’t be sure unless they win it all.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the Pac 10 final.

Outlook: See Arizona State. The potential SF match vs. Arizona State would be a rubber match between the two. Washington has a little better non conference profile and did beat Cal (ASU didn’t). But it pretty much comes down to them or ASU and the only way the Pac 10 gets three is if someone upsets Cal and either Washington or Arizona State in the final and the party crasher, Cal, and either Washington or ASU gets in.

SEC

Florida (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (31), Bubble Wins (at Mississippi, Mississippi State), Two Top 25 wins (Michigan State, Tennessee)

Weaknesses: RPI (54), Non Conf RPI (75), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bad Loss: Home vs South Alabama

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC SF and loses to Vanderbilt or makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses next game to Mississippi State or SF to Mississippi

Outlook: Losing to either of the Mississippi schools would hurt their chances as it gives either a chance to pass them in the SEC pecking order.

Mississippi State (Out)

Strengths: Bubble Wins: Sweep over Mississippi

Weaknesses: RPI (67), Conf RPI (60), Non Conf RPI (73), Non Conf SOS (214), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bubble loss: at Florida, Bad Loss: Home vs Rider

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Florida

Outlook: I am seeing a lot of Mississippi in many brackets even though Mississippi State swept them and they tied in conference. To me, Mississippi has to clearly show they are better than MSU to overcome the head to head sweep. That being said, it’s a moot point unless they at least beat Florida. They didn’t beat any of the top four SEC East schools. I think the SEC should get rid of the top two in each division get byes and have the best four teams get byes (like the Big 12). Tennessee and Florida (or at least Tennessee) should have byes instead of the Mississippi schools.

Mississippi (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (31)

Weaknesses: RPI (57), Conf RPI (64), Non Conf SOS (138), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bubble Losses: Home vs Florida, Sweep to Mississippi State, Bad Loss: Home to Arkansas

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Tennessee
Outlook: Honestly I don’t see anything good about Mississippi’s profile. Clearly the win over Tennessee would help but I’m still skeptical, otherwise I better not see their name on Sunday. Should both MSU and Ole Miss win their SF games, I still think you have to take MSU first before Ole Miss.

Other

Wichita State (Out)

Strengths: Conf RPI (38)
Weaknesses: Just one top 50 win (Northern Iowa), Non Conf RPI (82), Non Conf SOS (286!), Bad losses (at Evansville)

Tournament Result: Lost to Northern Iowa in MVC final

Outlook: Honestly only a really weak bubble is keeping them in the discussion. Finishing 2nd in the MVC and beating Northern Iowa is probably the only positive they have and that non conference SOS is terrible. They don’t even have “strong finish” in their basket. Should a lot of bubble teams win this week, I will likely take them off the bubble list.

Teams who I feel can play themselves into the tournament with a good week (list is not all inclusive). Teams previously listed that were eliminated have been removed.

Big 10: Minnesota

Schmolik

Schmolik Bubble Watch (3/9/10)

2010-03-09T20:52:00.001-05:00

Schmolik Bubble Watch

Hello, college basketball fans!

Updated: March 9, 2010 9pm ET

It's time for Schmolik's Bubble Watch. For many teams, this is a make or break week. Bubble Watch analyzes who is on the bubble and their chances of making the NCAA's.

First, teams that I feel are locks for the tournament. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind during the week. Automatic Bids not included.

ACC: Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest
A-10: Temple, Xavier, Richmond
Big East: Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville
Big 10: Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri
C-USA: Texas El Paso
Horizon: Butler
MWC: New Mexico, Brigham Young
Pac 10: California
SEC: Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
WCC: Gonzaga

Total # Locks: 34
Minimum # Locks: 24

Stats courtesy of CBSSports.com. Rankings are as of March 9, 2010 morning.

RPI/ Conf or Non Conf RPI: Good RPI is 30's or higher, marginal is 40's, poor is 50's or below.
*Last 10 games: 7-3 or better is a strength, 5-5 or lower a weakness.
SOS/Non Conf SOS: Good is top 20, bad is below 100.
Top 25 games: Strength: Two or more, Weakness: Zero
Top 50 games: Strength: Four or more, Weakness: One or fewer
Bad losses: Weakness: Home losses to teams below 100 in RPI, Loss to teams below 200 in RPI

* CBSSports.com lists “Last 10” in their RPI data. Although the last 10 games or last 12 games has been removed as an official criteria, the official bracket procedures state “chronological results” are considered so a poor or strong finish may still matter.

Bubble Teams (In/Out as of Last Schmolik 64 Update)

ACC

Virginia Tech (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (32), 7-3 in last 10, Bubble wins: at Georgia Tech
Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (98), Non Conf SOS (340!), no Top 25 wins

Should Be In If: They win one ACC tournament game
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose their first ACC game (although a loss to Wake Forest may not hurt that much, a loss to Miami would)

Outlook: Great ACC profile, horrible non conference profile. If the Selection Committee wishes to make a statement about non conference scheduling, look for the Hokies to get the shaft. A win in the ACC should remove all doubt.

Georgia Tech (In)

Strengths: Four Top 50 wins (including Duke), Overall SOS (19)

Weaknesses: 4-6 in last 10 games, Non Conf SOS (153), Bubble Losses (Home vs Virginia Tech, Neutral vs Dayton), Conference Record (7-9), although still in Top 50 in Conference RPI

Should Be In If: They beat Maryland, making the ACC SF.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose to Maryland in the ACC QF.

Outlook: RPI numbers are respectable, but sub .500 conference record could haunt them, especially if they lose their ACC opener to North Carolina.

Atlantic 10

Rhode Island (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (4!), Bubble Wins: at Dayton, Charlotte (if you consider them a bubble team)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (102), 5-5 in last 10 games, no top 256 wins, only one top 50 win

Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the A-10 SF, maybe still alive if they lose to St. Louis in the A-10 QF.

Outlook: If the A-10 will get another at large bid, it will be Rhode Island. They have the highest RPI, a terrific non conference RPI, and wins over Dayton and Charlotte. Would have to beat St. Joe’s at home for consideration and may have to beat St. Louis to at least get into the discussion.

Dayton (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (14), Non Conf SOS (20)

Weaknesses: 5-5 in last 10 games, RPI (52), Conf RPI (90)
Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the A-10 SF, beating Xavier.

Outlook: Needs to beat Xavier to have any chance, still would have a hard time justifying a bid over Rhode Island (who beat Dayton at Dayton) unless Rhode Island loses to St. Joe’s.

Big East

Marquette (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (35), 8-2 in last 10 games, two top 25 wins (vs Xavier, Georgetown), Bubble Win: at Seton Hall, South Florida

Weaknesses: RPI (58), Non Conf RPI (115), Non Conf SOS (203), Bubble Loss: Home vs Notre Dame, Bad Losses: Home vs NC State, at DePaul

Should Be In If: They beat St. John’s in next game.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose.

Outlook: The RPI is a big negative but their big wins, hot finish, and performance in conference (including win over Louisville) should be enough assuming they don’t blow it to St. John’s.

Notre Dame (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (38), Three Top 25 wins (West Virginia, Pittsburgh, at Georgetown), Bubble Wins (at Marquette, Sweep of South Florida)

Weaknesses: RPI (59), Non Conf RPI (97), Non Conf SOS (225), Bubble Loss: at Seton Hall, Bad Loss: Home to Loyola Marymount

Should Be In If: They beat Seton Hall in next game.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose.

Outlook: Very similar to Marquette, a loss to Seton Hall would be their 2nd this year and would have Seton Hall pass Notre Dame in the pecking order. That being said, don’t be surprised to see nine from the Big East if Seton Hall wins.

Seton Hall (Out)

Strengths: Conference RPI (40), Bubble Win: Notre Dame

Weaknesses: RPI (54), Non Conf RPI (77), Non Conf SOS (200), Bubble Loss: at South Florida

Should Be In If: They make the Big East SF, beating Providence, Notre Dame, and Pittsburgh.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They beat Providence.

Outlook: They will get consideration if they beat Providence but will be near the bottom of the bubble unless they beat Notre Dame. Another problem is South Florida, who has a similar profile and beat Seton Hall earlier. It could be a race for the two in this tournament as to who gets farther.

South Florida (Out)

Strengths: Two Top 25 wins (Pitt, at Georgetown), Bubble Win: Seton Hall

Weaknesses: RPI (63), Non Conf RPI (80), Non Conf SOS (229), Bubble Losses: Swept by Notre Dame, Bad Loss: Home to Central Michigan

Should Be In If: They make the Big East final.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They beat Georgetown.

Outlook: A very hard sell, beating Syracuse in the Big East QF may not be enough. They should get consideration head to head vs Seton Hall if they are close (but Seton Hall would get head to head over Notre Dame in a potential three way logjam between SH, ND, and USF if the Pirates beat the Irish.

Big 10

Illinois (Out)

Strengths: Three Top 25 wins (Vanderbilt, Michigan State, at Wisconsin)
Weaknesses: RPI (74), Conf RPI (51), Non Conf RPI (120), 5-5 in last 10 games (including 5 of last 6)

Should Be In If: They make the Big 10 final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beat Wisconsin, most likely can’t afford to lose to either Iowa or Northwestern should either beat Ohio State.

Outlook: Clearly have only one strength (quality wins), but it’s the one that the NCAA (at least according to almost everyone in the media) seems to like the most and teams have in the past gotten away with poor RPI numbers and poor finishes if they have a few quality wins. I can’t imagine Illinois gets in with an RPI in the 70’s. Let’s see how much the RPI goes up if they beat Wisconsin and lose to Ohio State. If it gets into the mid 60’s, they may get some consideration. The Illini should also root for Clemson to do well to get into the RPI Top 25 and give Illinois another top 25 win and for Michigan State to at least maintain a Top 25 RPI. If they beat Wisconsin, they could potentially have five top 25 wins.

Big 12
No Bubble Teams

Conf USA

Memphis (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (36), 8-2 in last 10 games, Bubble Wins: Sweep of UAB

Weaknesses: Non Conference RPI (90), No Top 25 wins, Bad Loss: at SMU

Should Be In If: They Make Conf USA Final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They win one Conf USA game

Outlook: Memphis should not be passed over in favor of UAB even if UAB beats them in the Conf USA SF since Memphis has beaten them twice already. That would be the only scenario I can consider any other team (other than UTEP) passing them in the Conf USA pecking order. They probably want to at least make the SF though and losing to anyone below UAB would be pretty bad as well. Another nightmare is if someone other than themselves or UTEP wins the tournament as UTEP would get an at large and Memphis will have to hope C-USA gets three bids.

UAB (Out)

Strengths: RPI (40), Non Conf RPI (18)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (59), 5-5 in last 10 games: Bubble Losses: Swept by Memphis, only one top 50 win (Butler)

Should Be In If: To feel safe, the only way would be to win it all
Should Be On the Bubble If: Makes the conference final

Outlook: Even a win over Memphis may not be enough to pass them in the pecking order (still 2-1 head to head) although making the final could add to the possibility of three bids in C-USA.

MWC

UNLV (In)

Strengths: 7-3 in last 10 games, Two Top 25 wins (at New Mexico, BYU), Four Top 50 wins

Weaknesses: Non Conference RPI (56), Non Conference SOS (191), Bad Loss: Home vs Utah

Should Be In If: Wins one MWC game.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They lose

Outlook: Pretty much avoid the bad loss and they should be OK. Surprising that their non conference profile is so bad (and that’s including a win vs Louisville). Do teams not want to go to Vegas anymore? They got swept by Utah this year, could a team outside the top 100 beat an NCAA contender three times in a year (UNLV opens the MWC vs Utah), especially on UNLV’s home court?

San Diego State (In)

Strengths: RPI (36), Non Conf RPI (35), 8-2 in last 10 games

Weaknesses: Non Conf SOS (105), Bubble Loss: at Arizona State

Should Be In If: Makes the MWC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Wins one MWC game.

Outlook: A pretty good profile. I think a win and their chances are better than most people think. There isn’t much a reason to reject them and considering a weak bubble, they shouldn’t be rejected (assuming they win one MWC game). Many teams were hoping St. Mary’s would not beat Gonzaga. San Diego State was probably indifferent and probably are better off without another bubble team that beat them earlier this year.

Pac 10

Arizona State (In)

Strengths: 8-2 in last 10 games, Bubble Wins - San Diego State

Weaknesses: RPI (53), Conf RPI (54), Non Conf RPI (55), No Top 25 wins

Should Be In If: Probably can’t be sure unless they win it all.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the Pac 10 final.

Outlook: The Pac 10 is weak and teams from the Pac 10 are really going to have to impress to make it. They have little chance at quality wins outside of beating Cal in the final (and then they would be in automatically). I can’t guarantee the winner of the potential SF between them and Washington will be in, but I can guarantee the loser won’t be. And if Arizona State loses before the final to anyone else, I can’t imagine them getting in either.

Washington (In)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (23), 8-2 in last 10 games, Two top 25 wins (Texas A&M, California)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (67), Bad Loss: Home to Oregon

Should Be In If: Probably can’t be sure unless they win it all.
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the Pac 10 final.

Outlook: See Arizona State. The potential SF match vs. Arizona State would be a rubber match between the two. Washington has a little better non conference profile and did beat Cal (ASU didn’t). But it pretty much comes down to them or ASU and the only way the Pac 10 gets three is if someone upsets Cal and either Washington or Arizona State in the final and the party crasher, Cal, and either Washington or ASU gets in.

SEC

Florida (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (31), Bubble Wins (at Mississippi, Mississippi State), Two Top 25 wins (Michigan State, Tennessee)

Weaknesses: RPI (51), Non Conf RPI (71), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bad Loss: Home vs South Alabama

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC SF and loses to Vanderbilt or makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Wins 1st SEC game vs Auburn

Outlook: Losing to either of the Mississippi schools would hurt their chances as it gives either a chance to pass them in the SEC pecking order.

Mississippi State (Out)

Strengths: Bubble Wins: Sweep over Mississippi

Weaknesses: RPI (69), Conf RPI (61), Non Conf RPI (76), Non Conf SOS (222), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bubble loss: at Florida, Bad Loss: Home vs Rider

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Florida

Outlook: I am seeing a lot of Mississippi in many brackets even though Mississippi State swept them and they tied in conference. To me, Mississippi has to clearly show they are better than MSU to overcome the head to head sweep. That being said, it’s a moot point unless they at least beat Florida. They didn’t beat any of the top four SEC East schools. I think the SEC should get rid of the top two in each division get byes and have the best four teams get byes (like the Big 12). Tennessee and Florida (or at least Tennessee) should have byes instead of the Mississippi schools.

Mississippi (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (35)

Weaknesses: RPI (56), Conf RPI (65), Non Conf SOS (142), 5-5 in last 10 games, Bubble Losses: Home vs Florida, Sweep to Mississippi State, Bad Loss: Home to Arkansas

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Tennessee
Outlook: Honestly I don’t see anything good about Mississippi’s profile. Clearly the win over Tennessee would help but I’m still skeptical, otherwise I better not see their name on Sunday. Should both MSU and Ole Miss win their SF games, I still think you have to take MSU first before Ole Miss.

Other

Utah State (In)

Strengths: RPI (32), Conf RPI (33), 10-0 in last 10 games!, Bubble Win: Wichita State

Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (57)

Should Be In If: Avoids a bad loss in the WAC tournament
Should Be On the Bubble If: Takes a bad loss in the WAC tournament.

Outlook: Pretty close to a lock but win one game in the WAC to be entirely sure. At least they won’t have to compete with St. Mary’s for an at large (see San Diego State).

Wichita State (Out)

Strengths: Conf RPI (37)
Weaknesses: Just one top 50 win (Northern Iowa), Non Conf RPI (85), SOS (101), Non Conf SOS (285!), Bad losses (at Evansville)

Tournament Result: Lost to Northern Iowa in MVC final

Outlook: Honestly only a really weak bubble is keeping them in the discussion. Finishing 2nd in the MVC and beating Northern Iowa is probably the only positive they have and that non conference SOS is terrible. They don’t even have “strong finish” in their basket. Should a lot of bubble teams win this week, I will likely take them off the bubble list.

Teams who I feel can play themselves into the tournament with a good week (list is not all inclusive). Teams previously listed that were eliminated have been removed.

Big East: Cincinnati
Big 10: Minnesota

Schmolik

Schmolik 64 Update (3/9/10 Early Morning)

2010-03-09T00:01:00.003-05:00

Hello, college basketball fans!

This is the next to last Schmolik 64 Update for 2010. Stay tuned on Championship Sunday for the final Schmolik 64. This bracket will list all 65 teams. For one bid conferences, I chose the highest seeded team remaining.

Records as of Monday night games.

Schedule:
1st/2nd: Thur/Sat March 18-20, Fri/Sun March 19-21
Regionals: Thur/Sat March 25-27, Fri/Sun March 26-28
* Automatic Bid to NCAA's

MIDWEST REGIONAL (St. Louis - Fri/Sun)
Oklahoma City, OK - Thur/Sat
1 Kansas (29-2) vs 16 Winthrop * (17-13)
8 Northern Iowa * (28-4) vs 9 California (21-9)

Spokane, WA - Fri/Sun
5 Georgetown (20-9) vs 12 Kent State (22-8)
4 Maryland (22-7) vs 13 Murray State * (28-4)

Jacksonville, FL - Fri/Sun
6 Xavier (23-7) vs 11 Siena * (27-6)
3 Pittsburgh (24-7) vs 14 Oakland (23-8)

Milwaukee, WI - Fri/Sun
7 Oklahoma State (21-9) vs 10 UNLV (22-7)
2 Purdue (26-4) vs 15 Troy (17-11)

WEST REGIONAL (Salt Lake City - Thur/Sat)

Jacksonville, FL - Fri/Sun
1 Duke (26-5) vs 16 Vermont (24-9)
8 Missouri (22-9) vs 9 Louisville (20-11)

Spokane, WA - Fri/Sun
5 Tennessee (23-7) vs 12 San Diego State (20-8)
4 Wisconsin (23-7) vs 13 Arizona State (22-9)

Providence, RI - Thur/Sat
6 Texas (23-8) vs 11 Virginia Tech (23-7)
3 Villanova (24-6) vs 14 Wofford * (25-8)

San Jose, CA - Thur/Sat
7 Gonzaga (25-6) vs 10 Utah State (24-6)
2 New Mexico (28-3) vs 15 UC-Santa Barbara (17-9)

Midwest vs West in Final Four, South vs East in Final Four

SOUTH REGIONAL (Houston - Fri/Sun)

Buffalo, NY - Fri/Sun
1 Syracuse (28-3) vs 16 Play In Winner - Lehigh (21-10) vs Jackson State (18-11)
8 Florida State (22-8) vs 9 Old Dominion * (26-8)

New Orleans, LA - Thur/Sat
5 Vanderbilt (22-7) vs 12 Memphis (23-8)
4 Texas A&M (21-8) vs 13 Cornell * (25-4)

Oklahoma City, OK - Thur/Sat
6 Butler (27-4) vs 11 Georgia Tech (18-11)
3 Kansas State (23-6) vs 14 Weber State (17-9)

Providence, RI - Thur/Sat
7 Richmond (24-7) vs 10 Marquette (20-10)
2 Ohio State (24-7) vs 15 Morgan State (24-9)

EAST REGIONAL (Syracuse, NY - Thur/Sat)

Milwaukee, WI - Fri/Sun
1 Kentucky (29-2) vs 16 Quinnipiac (23-8)
8 Wake Forest (19-9) vs 9 Texas El Paso (24-5)

San Jose, CA - Thur/Sat
5 Temple (26-5) vs 12 Notre Dame (21-10)
4 Michigan State (24-7) vs 13 Washington (21-9)

New Orleans, FL - Thur/Sat
6 BYU (27-4) vs 11 Florida (20-11)
3 Baylor (23-6) vs 14 Sam Houston State (18-7)

Buffalo, NY - Fri/Sun
7 Clemson (21-9) vs 10 St. Mary's * (25-5)
2 West Virginia (24-6) vs 15 E. Tennessee State * (19-14)

Big East: 8 (Syr, WV, Pitt, Vill, GTown, Lville, Marq, ND)
Big 12: 7 (Kan, KSU, Bay, A&M, Tex, OSU, Mo)
ACC: 7 (Duke, Md, Clem, FSU, WF, VaT, GaT)
Big 10: 4 (Pur, OSU, MSU, Wisc)
SEC: 4 (Ky, Vbilt, Tenn, Fla)
MWC: 4 (NM, BYU, UNLV, SDSt)
A-10: 3 (Temp, Xav, Rich)
Pac-10: 3 (Cal, ASU, Wash)
C-USA: 2 (UTEP, Mem)
WCC: 2 (Gonz, St. M)

Remaining: 21 (Horizon, MVC/N Iowa, Colonial/ODU, WAC, Metro Atl/Siena, MAC, Ivy/Cornell, Ohio V/Murray State, Big Sky, Summit, Southern/Wofford, S'land, AtlSun/E Tenn State, MEAC, Sun Belt, Big West, Big South/Winthrop, Northeast, America East, Patriot, SWAC)

Other at large candidates: Rhode Island, UAB, Wichita State, Seton Hall, South Florida, Illinois (RPI is in the 70's but have 4 top 50 wins, 3 top 25 and Clemson, which is close).

No bracket updates this week until the final bracket but stay tuned for bubble updates and other blog entries.

What to Watch For This Weekend

2010-03-05T06:14:00.003-05:00

Hello, college basketball fans!

With the regular season winding down, here's games this weekend that may affect the bracket.

ACC:

Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech, Sat 4pm (Battle of Tech's)

In a year the ACC lost to the Big 10 in the ACC-Big 10 challenge, it's going to be hard to believe they will get seven in the dance. If you are looking for one of the seven contenders to exclude, look no further than this game. A loss (a home loss) for the Jackets, and they are 7-9 in conference. While Va. Tech would be 9-7 with a loss (ahead of 8-8 Georgia Tech), consider that in the ACC schedule they played these five teams twice: UNC, Mia, BC, Va, NCSt. None of those teams are in the NCAA discussion! They only would have wins over Clemson and Wake Forest, both at home. And their non conference schedule was pathetic.

North Carolina at Duke, Sat 9pm

Only on this list because, hey, it's UNC/Duke. And should Duke lose, they can kiss their #1 seed chances goodbye. BTW, the last two times Duke hosted UNC on Senior Day (2006 and 2008), they lost. North Carolina has won the last five regular season finales.

Clemson at Wake Forest, Sun 6pm

Clemson should be safe, win or lose. Jerry Palm of CBS said the committee took out last 12 games as a criteria but you don't need a "last 12" stat to know the Demon Deacons are struggling late and a loss here could really hurt their NCAA chances.

A-10:

Richmond at Charlotte, Sat 2pm

Last ditch effort for Charlotte. Not sure they are even in the discussion now but a win would give them a sweep over the Spiders (Charlotte won in Richmond already) and they also beat Temple so don't count them out yet.

Rhode Island at Massachusetts, Sat 4pm

Rhode Island saved their season beating Charlotte and now lead Charlotte in the A-10 pecking order. But a loss to UMass and it won't matter.

St. Louis at Dayton, Sat 7pm

The road has been unkind to Dayton. Luckily, this one's at home. And they do need this game in the worst way.

Big East:

West Virginia at Villanova, Sat noon (CBS)

With Duke and Kansas State losing on Wednesday, the winner of this game could be in the discussion for a #1 seed (or definitely for position in the Big East pecking order). Villanova won the first game in Morgantown on the road.

Cincinnati at Georgetown, Sat 2pm

Someone has to win this game, right? Georgetown isn't in bubble territory but their seed is plummeting. This is Cincinnati's last chance at a marquee win (although who hasn't beaten Georgetown these days?) before the Big East tournament.

Syracuse at Louisville, Sat 2pm

Syracuse is a fairly solid #1 (especially since there aren't many candidates left to replace them). The game is mostly for Louisville's seed because I think they are most likely in. Remember Louisville gave Syracuse one of their two losses (in the Carrier Dome, no less).

Notre Dame at Marquette, Sat 2pm

Why do I have a feeling every Big East ref will be busy at 2pm this Saturday? Notre Dame is guaranteed a .500 record in conference, a steal at Marquette would make them 10-8 and in great position for an at large bid. A loss and I think they are in the discussion but their RPI is still kind of high (in the 60's according to CBSSports.com).

Connecticut at South Florida, Sat ... you guessed it, 2pm

Big loss for Connecticut at Notre Dame. They now sit at 7-10 in conference. A loss and they are four games below .500 in conference. I don't believe any team in the last decade (2000-2009) has received an at large bid that was four games below .500 in conference. By the way, I don't think any team in the Big East last decade received an at large bid with a losing record so U Conn's chances are slim already.

Seton Hall at Providence, Sat .... NOT at 2pm! (7pm)

A tough road game and a must win for Seton Hall to stay in bubble contention. Providence was a 3 pointer from upsetting Pitt.

Big 10:

Wisconsin at Illinois, Sun 2pm

Illinois needs at least win and possibly two to warrant at large consideration. Might as well start here against a Badger team they upset in Madison earlier in the season.

Big 12:

Kansas at Missouri, Sat 2pm (CBS)

Pretty sure Missouri is in the tournament already, but should the Tigers win, watch that RPI and those mock bracket seeds skyrocket (look at Oklahoma State last week).

MWC:

San Diego State at Air Force, Sat 9pm

San Diego State is one of those teams that are one side of the bubble or the other in almost everyone's bracket. Air Force is pathetic. San Diego State loses just showing up at Air Force in terms of RPI. If they lose? I think you know the answer.

SEC:

Tennessee at Mississippi State - Sat. 6pm

Last chance for MSU before the tournament for a signature in conference win. Of the top four teams in the SEC East, the Bulldogs haven't beaten any of them. Expect that to come up in the conversation should MSU lose to Tennessee. The head to head loss at Florida also hurts them although there may be a chance for payback in the SEC tournament.

Florida at Kentucky, Sun noon (CBS)

Well no one expects Florida to win. Unfortunately it will keep them on the bubble heading into the tournament.

Others:

Kent State at Akron - Fri. 8pm

A rare Friday night game. They are playing for 1st place in the MAC (Eastern Division, currently tied with Akron). Kent's RPI is in range for at large consideration, but it's hard to justify one if they didn't win their conference.

UAB at Texas El Paso - Sat. 9:05pm

Don't look now, but Memphis passed UAB in the conference standings, the RPI gap between the two has shrunk, and Memphis has a head to head sweep over UAB. I was thinking about should Memphis be the 2nd team from C-USA instead of UAB. Now I'm sure of it. But if UAB beats UTEP in El Paso (and if Memphis loses at home to Tulsa), that could change things.

MWC Tournament (Final Sun 2pm on CBS).

Northern Iowa has a good resume for an at large team, bubblers around the country should hope N. Iowa wins out.

Schmolik 64 Update (3/1/10)

2010-03-01T16:58:00.004-05:00

Hello, college basketball fans!

Here is the latest Schmolik 64. Until Championship Week, I only seed the top 12 teams in each conference. The reason is most if not all of these spots are reserved for automatic bid teams that most likely won't be determined until Championship Week.

1st Round Dates: Thur/Sat March 18-20, Fri/Sun March 19-21

SOUTH REGIONAL (Houston, TX Fri/Sun March 26-28)

Buffalo, NY (Fri/Sun)
1 Syracuse (27-2) vs 16
8 Missouri (21-8) vs 9 Wake Forest (18-8)

Spokane, WA (Fri/Sun)
5 Temple (24-5) vs 12 St. Mary's (23-5)
4 Tennessee (21-7) vs 13

New Orleans, LA (Thur/Sat)
6 Maryland (20-7) vs 11 Charlotte (19-9)
3 Michigan State (22-7) vs 14

Oklahoma City, OK (Thur/Sat)
7 Northern Iowa (25-4) vs 10 Louisville (19-10)
2 Kansas State (23-4) vs 15

WEST REGIONAL (Salt Lake City, UT Thur/Sat March 25-27)

Jacksonville, FL (Fri/Sun)
1 Duke (25-4) vs 16
8 California (20-9) vs 9 Marquette (19-9)

New Orleans, LA (Thur/Sat)
5 Baylor (21-6) vs 12 San Diego State (18-8)
4 Vanderbilt (21-6) vs 13

Buffalo, NY (Fri/Sun)
6 Gonzaga (23-5) vs 11 Virginia Tech (21-7)
3 Pittsburgh (22-7) vs 14

San Jose, CA (Thur/Sat)
7 Texas (22-7) vs 10 Utah State (22-6)
2 New Mexico (27-3)

South vs West, Midwest vs East in Final Four

MIDWEST REGIONAL (St. Louis, MO Fri/Sun March 26-28)

Oklahoma City, OK (Thur/Sat)
1 Kansas (27-2) vs 16
8 Texas El Paso (22-5) vs 9 Florida (20-9)

Spokane, WA (Fri/Sun)
5 Wisconsin (21-7) vs 12 Connecticut (17-12)
4 Butler (26-4) vs 13

Providence, RI (Thur/Sat)
6 Xavier (21-7) vs 11 UNLV (21-7)
3 West Virginia (22-6) vs 14

Milwaukee, WI (Fri/Sun)
7 Oklahoma State (20-8) vs 10 Georgia Tech (18-9)
2 Ohio State (23-7) vs 15

EAST REGIONAL (Syracuse, NY Thur/Sat March 25-27)

Milwaukee, WI (Fri/Sun)
1 Kentucky (27-2) vs 16
8 Richmond (22-7) vs 9 Florida State (20-8)

San Jose, CA (Thur/Sat)
5 BYU (25-4) vs 12 UAB (23-5)
4 Georgetown (19-8) vs 13

Jacksonville, FL (Fri/Sun)
6 Texas A&M (19-8) vs 11 Siena (24-6)
3 Purdue (24-4) vs 14

Providence, RI (Thur/Sat)
7 Clemson (20-8) vs 10 Old Dominion (23-8)
2 Villanova (23-5) vs 15

Big East: 8 (Syr, Vill, Pitt, WV, GTown, Marq, Lville, Conn)
ACC: 7 (Duke, Md, Clem, FSU, WF, GaT, VaT)
Big 12: 7 (Kan, KSU, Bay, A&M, Tex, OSU, Mo)
A-10: 4 (Temp, Xav, Rich, Charl)
Big 10: 4 (OSU, Pur, MSU, Wisc)
MWC: 4 (NM, BYU, UNLV, SDSt)
SEC: 4 (Ky, Vbilt, Tenn, Fla)
C-USA: 2 (UTEP, UAB)
WCC: 2 (Gonz, St. M)
Remaining: 6 (Butl, N Iowa, Cal, USU, ODU, Siena)

Remaining Automatics: 16
Remaining At Large: 1

Candidates: RI, Day, Wich St, ASU, Miss St, Cin, SH, ND, Ill

Schmolik

What to Watch This Weekend

2010-02-27T12:49:00.002-05:00

Hello, college basketball fans!

With the regular season winding down, here's games this weekend that may affect the bracket.

ACC:
Boston College at Georgia Tech, Sat noon

Georgia Tech has the RPI numbers and a huge win over Duke to overcome a current sub .500 conference record but can't afford to fall too far behind .500 and can ill afford to lose this game.

North Carolina at Wake Forest, Sat 2pm (CBS)

Wake Forest needs to stop a two game skid.

Maryland at Virginia Tech, Sat 4pm

I think Maryland is solidly in but a win here would ice it. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech needs a good win and a strong ACC record to negate their weak non conference schedule.

Clemson at Florida State, Sun 5:30pm

A bubble team special. A win by Clemson gives Florida State the sweep this season and a win by Florida State gives them a 2 game lead in the standings and puts Clemson at 7-7 in conference.

A-10:

Rhode Island at St. Bonaventure, Sat 2pm
Charlotte at George Washington, Sat 6pm

Charlotte leads in the conference standings and has beaten both Temple and Richmond (at Richmond) while Rhode Island hasn't beaten any of the three top A-10 teams (they were swept by Temple and lost at home to Richmond). But Rhode Island's RPI is about 30 spots ahead. Both teams though need to keep winning. Charlotte's RPI is low borderline and if sinks too low they will fall out of contention. Meanwhile, Rhode Island's RPI in the 20's will keep it in consideration but if they drop into the 30's/40's, they don't have the quality wins to compensate.

Richmond at Xavier, Sun 1pm

Winner stays at worst tied with Temple for first place in the A-10.

Big East:

Villanova at Syracuse, Sat 9pm

I think if either of these teams win the Big East tournament they should be a #1 seed although a Big East regular season title (winner of this game will take a big step towards the title) wouldn't hurt.

Marquette at Seton Hall, Sun noon

A loss can knock Marquette out of many brackets come Monday. Seton Hall desperately needs a win to keep their at large chances alive.

Louisville at Connecticut, Sun 2pm (CBS)

Both teams are in my last bracket but Connecticut's position is very shaky. They have a better profile than Cincinnati but the closer the two profiles get, the more consideration of the head to head sweep by the Bearcats will get. Louisville can really help their chances with a key road win and also would have a season sweep over UConn.

Big 10:

Minnesota at Illinois, Sat 4pm

Despite Illinois's low RPI, I can't see Illinois not getting in at 11-7 (of course I'm going to say that though) and a win over the Gophers will give them 11 wins (and a winnable game at home vs. Wisconsin next weekend, who they beat at Madison earlier). Lose, and they will really be in bubble danger. Meanwhile, this is a last gasp for Minnesota.

Michigan State at Purdue, Sun 4pm (CBS)

With Hummel out for the season, every game for the Boilers will be scrutinized in their hunt for a possible #1 seed. Should Purdue lose, expect Duke (if they beat Virginia) to replace them as a #1 seed in most Monday brackets.

Big 12:

Texas at Texas A&M, Sat 2pm

Clearly a game for seeding purposes. Should Kansas be placed in the Midwest as expected, there's a slight chance these teams may be playing (along with Baylor) for a spot in the South and Houston as well (depending on what they do with Kansas State).

Kansas at Oklahoma State, Sat 4pm (CBS)

Kansas doesn't seem to be in danger of losing a #1 seed. Oklahoma State is on the edge and would almost clinch a berth with a big win over the Jayhawks.

Missouri at Kansas State, Sat 8pm

Missouri has a great profile in a very strong Big 12 but a win at Kansas State will really help their chances. Kansas State's chances for a high seed will take a hit with a head to head sweep by Missouri (Missouri won the first match in Columbia).

SEC:

Kentucky at Tennessee, Sat noon (CBS)

Clearly means a lot more to Tennessee than Kentucky. Win, and they would've beaten Kansas and Kentucky this season.

Mississippi State at South Carolina, Sat 6pm

Both teams have to win to stay in at large contention, Mississippi State would have a much better chance with a win than South Carolina with a win (still would be under .500 in the SEC).

Others:

Arizona State at California, Sat 3pm

A win by California would pretty much lock of the conference regular season title and would strongly help their at large chances. Arizona State needs to win to have any chance at an at large (they lost at home to Cal earlier this season). These two look like the only chances for the weak Pac 10 to get an at large bid this season.

New Mexico at BYU, Sat 4pm

Winner takes the lead in the MWC and possibly towards a top 4 seed and the right to stay in the West in the NCAA's (although a BYU win would likely come down to a rubber match in a potential MWC final). New Mexico won the first meeting. If New Mexico stays west, BYU has to go to the East Regional (only other regional that plays on Saturday).

Schmolik 64 Update 2/26/10

2010-02-26T18:57:00.004-05:00

Hello, college basketball fans!

This is my second Schmolik 64 Update for 2010.

Only the top 12 seeds are listed. I don't seed 13-16 until Championship Week. Records as of 2/25/10.

MIDWEST REGIONAL (St. Louis, MO - Fri/Sun March 26-28)

Oklahoma City, OK (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
1 Kansas (27-1) vs 16
8 Florida State (20-7) vs 9 Louisville (18-10)

Spokane, WA (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
5 Temple (23-5) vs 12 Old Dominion (22-8)
4 Wisconsin (21-7) vs 13

San Jose, CA (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
6 Tennessee (20-7) vs 11 Utah State (22-6)
3 New Mexico (26-3) vs 14

Buffalo, NY (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
7 Missouri (21-7) vs 10 Georgia Tech (17-9)
2 Pittsburgh (21-7) vs 15

WEST REGIONAL (Salt Lake City, UT - Thur/Sat March 25-27)

Milwaukee, WI (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
1 Purdue (24-3) vs 16
8 California (19-9) vs 9 Florida (20-8)

San Jose, CA (Thur/Sat March 19-21)
5 Gonzaga (22-5) vs 12 Connecticut (17-11)
4 BYU (25-3) vs 13

Providence, RI (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
6 Maryland (19-7) vs 11 Charlotte (19-8)
3 West Virginia (21-6) vs 14

Oklahoma City, OK (Thur/Sat March 19-21)
7 Northern Iowa (24-4) vs 10 Texas El Paso (21-5)
2 Kansas State (22-4) vs 15

Midwest vs West in Final Four

EAST REGIONAL (Syracuse, NY - Thur/Sat March 25-27)

Milwaukee, WI (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
1 Kentucky (27-1) vs 16
8 Wake Forest (18-7) vs 9 UNLV (20-7)

Spokane, WA (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
5 Baylor (20-6) vs 12 Marquette (18-9)
4 Butler (25-4) vs 13

New Orleans, LA (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
6 Xavier (20-7) vs 11 Virginia Tech (21-6)
3 Ohio State (22-7) vs 14

Providence, RI (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
7 Texas (22-6) vs 10 Siena (22-6)
2 Villanova (23-4) vs 15

SOUTH REGIONAL (Houston, TX - Fri/Sun March 26-28)

Buffalo, NY (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
1 Syracuse (26-2) vs 16
8 Clemson (19-8) vs 9 Oklahoma State (19-8)

New Orleans, LA (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
5 Michigan State (21-7) vs 12 Rhode Island (20-6)
4 Vanderbilt (20-6) vs 13

Jacksonville, FL (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
6 Texas A&M (18-8) vs 11 UAB (22-5)
3 Georgetown (19-7) vs 14

Jacksonville, FL (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
7 Richmond (22-6) vs 10 Illinois (18-10)
2 Duke (24-4) vs 15

Big East: 8 (Syr, Vill, Pitt, WV, G Town, Lville, Marq, Conn)
ACC: 7 (Duke, Md, WF, FSU, Clem, GaT, VaT)
Big 12: 7 (Kan, KSU, A&M, Bay, Tex, Mo, OSU)
A-10: 5 (Temp, Xav, RI, Rich, Charl)
Big 10: 5 (Pur, OSU, MSU, Wisc, Ill)
SEC: 4 (Ky, Vbilt, Tenn, Fla)
MWC: 3 (NM, BYU, UNLV)
C-USA: 2 (UTEP, UAB)
One Bid: 7 (Butl, N Iowa, Cal, Gonz, USU, Siena, ODU)

Conferences represented: 15 (48 teams)
Remaining automatic bids: 16
Remaining at large: 1

Candidates for at large: San Diego State, Dayton, St. Mary's, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, Arizona State, Mississippi State

Schmolik 64 Update (2/15/2010)

2010-02-15T21:25:00.002-05:00

Hello, college basketball fans!

This is my first Schmolik 64 Update for 2010.

Only the top 12 seeds are listed. I don't seed 13-16 until Championship Week. Records as of 2/14/10.

MIDWEST REGIONAL (St. Louis, MO - Fri/Sun March 26-28)

Oklahoma City, OK (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
1 Kansas (24-1) vs 16
8 Maryland (15-7) vs 9 Dayton (17-7)

Spokane, WA (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
5 Pittsburgh (19-6) vs 12 Florida (17-8)
4 Butler (23-4) vs 13

Providence, RI (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
6 Xavier (17-7) vs 11 Florida State (18-7)
3 Georgetown (18-6) vs 14

Milwaukee, WI (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
7 Texas (20-5) vs 10 UNLV (18-6)
2 Purdue (20-3) vs 15

WEST REGIONAL (Salt Lake City, UT - Thur/Sat March 25-27)

Buffalo, NY (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
1 Syracuse (24-2) vs 16
8 Virginia Tech (20-4) vs 9 Siena (22-5)

Spokane, WA (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
5 California (17-8) vs 12 Oklahoma State (17-7)
4 Gonzaga (20-4) vs 13

San Jose, CA (Thur/Sat March 19-21)
6 Wisconsin (19-6) vs 11 Charlotte (18-6)
3 New Mexico (23-3) vs 14

Oklahoma City, OK (Thur/Sat March 19-21)
7 Tennessee (18-6) vs 10 Clemson (18-7)
2 Kansas State (19-4) vs 15

Midwest vs West in Final Four

SOUTH REGIONAL (Houston, TX - Fri/Sun March 26-28)

Milwaukee, WI (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
1 Kentucky (24-1) vs 16
8 Rhode Island (19-5) vs 9 Old Dominion (20-7)

San Jose, CA (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
5 Texas A&M (17-6) vs 12 Marquette (16-8)
4 Wake Forest (17-5) vs 13

Jacksonville, FL (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
6 Baylor (18-5) vs 11 St. Mary's (20-5)
3 Ohio State (20-6) vs 14

Buffalo, NY (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
7 Northern Iowa (22-3) vs 10 Georgia Tech (16-7)
2 West Virginia (19-5) vs 15

EAST REGIONAL (Syracuse, NY - Thur/Sat March 25-27)

Providence, RI (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
1 Villanova (22-2) vs 16
8 Richmond (20-6) vs 9 Missouri (18-7)

New Orleans, LA (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
5 Michigan State (20-6) vs 12 Utah State (19-6)
4 Vanderbilt (18-5) vs 13

New Orleans, LA (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
6 BYU (22-3) vs 11 Illinois (17-9)
3 Temple (20-5) vs 14

Jacksonville, FL (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
7 Louisville (16-9) vs 10 Texas El Paso (19-5)
2 Duke (21-4) vs 15

ACC: 7 (Duke, WF, Md, VaT, GaT, Clem, FSU)
Big East: 7 (Vill, Syr, WV, G Town, Pitt, Lville, Marq)
Big 12: 7 (Kan, KSU, A&M, Bay, Tex, Mo, OSU)
A-10: 6 (Temp, Xav, RI, Rich, Day, Charl)
Big 10: 5 (Pur, OSU, MSU, Wisc, Ill)
SEC: 4 (Ky, Vbilt, Tenn, Fla)
MWC: 3 (NM, BYU, UNLV)
WCC: 2 (Gonz, St. M)
One Bid: 7 (Butl, Cal, N Iowa, ODU, UTEP, Siena, USU)

Conferences represented: 15 (48 teams)
Remaining automatic bids: 16
Remaining at large: 1

Candidates for at large: San Diego State, UAB, Cincinnati, Memphis, Wichita State, Mississippi State, Mississippi, Cornell (if no automatic)

My Trip to the NCAA's

2009-03-23T17:04:00.002-04:00

Hello, college basketball fans!

This just in. The NCAA tournament played two games from Boise, Idaho. Since they are miles away from civilization, Xavier beat Wisconsin and Missouri beat Marquette. I'm sure you were all waiting for those scores. Why exactly does the NCAA insist on going back to Boise year after year? Sure, there has to be western sites, but ever heard of California where it's nice out? No one wants to fly all the way across the country to go to Boise (correct me if I'm wrong Xavier or Missouri fans). At least have some sort of tourist attraction. Seattle has the Space Needle, Denver has the Rocky Mountains, Phoenix has baseball spring training and the Grand Canyon, and Boise has ... a bunch of spuds? Now granted UCLA had a down year, but none of the top three seeds were in the Mountain or Pacific Time zones. I have no problem with a West Regional but the West should only get one 1st/2nd round site instead of two (especially if the supposed second best site is Boise). Of the 65 teams in the NCAA's this year, only 12 are in the Mountain or Western time zones (and that's in a year where the Pac 10 gets six bids, which doesn't happen too often). Assuming every western team got to stay in the west (impossible due to bracket rules), they would still need four teams from the Eastern/Central teams to fill the two west sites this year. Almost every year they have to fly in top 4 seeded teams from the Eastern/Central time zones to western sites to fill them. They never have to import high seeded teams to Greensboro or Philadelphia or Dayton. Each of these sites hosted #1 seeds this year (maybe Dayton isn't exactly a tourist attraction either but they are within driving distance of Louisville and Pittsburgh, both #1 seeds). If they moved the Boise pods to, say, Chicago or Texas, the traveling teams would be a lot happier. In addition, Boise's arena holds 12,542 seats (http://www.tacobellarena.com/maps.cfm?action=basketball). I'm pretty sure the arenas at Illinois and Penn State hold more than that and neither of them will ever host the NCAA's. I think they should have a policy of at least 15,000 for a 1st/2nd round site. Why would the NCAA want to limit attendance below that?

Those of you who read last week know I went to see my World Series Champion Phillies in Spring Training in Florida. I saw two games, including the St. Patrick's Day game where they wore green shirts. They won both of them. From a lifelong northener (living in Pennsylvania or Illinois all my life), it certainly is nice to be down where it is warm in March. Now all Philadelphia needs is an Eagles Super Bowl. Yeah right, the way they treat their players (Dawkins?) And if you are wondering why I never reveal my name, it's because I don't want to lose my job with the Eagles (they're looking me up now).

Well I got back and heard there were tickets available for the NCAA 2nd round games in Philly, so I went and got them. It was my fourth trip to the NCAA's (I went to Syracuse in 1997 and 2000 and Chicago in 2005, to see my Illini beat Arizona in one of the most improbable comebacks in NCAA history to advance to the Final Four). This was my first time seeing early round action and the mood was obviously not the same (lower stakes). Being in Philly, Villanova is quite popular so the Villanova fans went home happy. The second game involved Texas A&M and Connecticut. I kind of wanted to root against UConn being a Villanova fan but I had Connecticut fans on both sides of me. This falls under the "it's a small world" category. I was next to this couple. She is a UConn fan sporting a UConn jersey. She graduated from UConn. But her boyfriend graduated from the University of San Diego, the team that upset Connecticut in the first round last year. I thought that was funny. Obviously the action wasn't too competitive. You can't expect competitive basketball games when a #1 plays a #9. I did think the 'Nova/UCLA game should've been more competitive.

Not many upsets this year. All four 1 seeds, all four 2 seeds, and all four 3 seeds made the Sweet 16. To put this in perspective, the last time all four 1's and 2's made the Sweet 16 was 1995. Now #1's don't lose often in the 2nd round, but consider the last time all four 2 seeds made the Sweet 16 was 1996 (that year #1 seed Purdue lost in the 2nd round). Only one of the 16 teams is seeded below a 5. CBSSports had an posting which said it's a bad year for Cinderella when your Cinderella is Arizona. I'm not too happy with Arizona making the Sweet 16 as I was hoping to see them embarrass themselves to make St. Mary's, Creighton, and San Diego State happy. It reminded me of George Mason in 2006 after they got in over Hofstra.

Now there were some first round upsets. My Illini lost to Western Kentucky but after last year's debacle if you had told me at the beginning of the year Illinois would be a #5 seed and lose in the first round of the NCAA's, I would've been thrilled. Not to mention, it's pretty clear Western Kentucky has a proven track record (they made the Sweet 16 last year). I actually picked Cleveland State to beat Wake.

Then again, the lack of upsets led to some great Sweet Sixteen matchups. You have Duke/Villanova, Michigan State/Kansas, and North Carolina/Gonzaga (does Gonzaga count as a Cinderella?) As much as I like the occasional upset, I'd rather see high seeded teams in the Final Four than a bunch of lower seeded ones. I remember 2000 when the four Final Four teams were a 1 seed, a 5 seed, and two 8 seeds. Guess who won? Last year? All four #1's. Upsets may be fun, but they can lead to some blowouts in the Sweet 16 round. Often times a 12 seed makes the Sweet 16. Only one has ever won in the Sweet 16. It was Missouri in 2002 and they beat UCLA, who upset the #1 seed in round 2. A #12 has never beaten a #1 in the Sweet 16 round. 4 and 5 seeds? Now that's a different story.

Enjoy the Sweet 16!

Schmolik Bracket Analysis

2009-03-16T10:19:00.001-04:00

Hello, college basketball fans!

Time for Schmolik Bracket Analysis

SOUTH (Always start with Illinois's)

Illinois is in as the 5 seed here. I had them a 6 so a 5 is reasonable. I worried they were heading to Boise (the NCAA garbage dump) but they got Portland instead. Sure, it's a long trip but at least they have an NBA team. Boise doesn't even have a major (BCS) college nearby (no Boise State doesn't count - when's the last time they made the NCAA's?). I didn't like seeing Western Kentucky in their bracket. They went to the Sweet 16 last year. If they win (I put WKU's chances at 50-50), it's Gonzaga vs. the Big MAC champ (Akron). It looks unlikely Illinois will make it through the first week, but North Carolina looks to be waiting if they do. Butler looks to be trouble in the 2nd round, but the game is in Greensboro. I can't see any team in UNC's half stopping UNC. On the bottom half, I think Oklahoma is the weakest #2. I had Missouri on the 2 line. They do get a favorable 7-10 with Clemson and Michigan. But I like Syracuse to get to the regional final, losing to UNC.

I was somewhat surprised to see E. Tennessee St as a 16 and Tennessee as a 9. And they are both in Pitt's pod. Not that I think either will stop Pittsburgh, but they seem to have a harder time earlier than the others. I had FSU as a 4 over Xavier so I expect FSU to win.How about UCLA going all the way to Philly? VCU is going to be a tough out but the problem is everyone knows they can win. Most upsets will happen when the lower seed is underestimated. VCU won't be. I think Villanova has a decent chance to beat Duke and make an all Big East regional final (but watch out for Florida State).

In the Midwest, I think it's the toughest. You got Louisville, Michigan State, and Kansas. Siena might be in the toughest geographical disadvantage. They will be playing Ohio State in Dayton followed by Louisville. If OSU and Siena didn't meet in Dayton, I'd pick Siena to win. I think West Virginia could give Kansas a fit in the 2nd (ask Duke). I think Louisville is the favorite.

I can't pick all four #1's so I'll say Memphis is the favorite. Remember the Huskies lost in the 1st round last year. The West looks to be the weakest. I am not saying teams like Washington and Missouri aren't good teams but they just don't have the same ring as teams like Kansas and Syracuse, teams that won the NCAA this decade. If you want an upset waiting to happen, Utah State over Marquette (especially in Boise).

Could we have Calipari vs Pitino in a national semi? Yes. They met in 1996 with UK-UMass before both went to the NBA, failed, and came back. I have UNC beating Pitt and Louisville winning the NCAA's.

My only hope is the NCAA's never return to Boise. You play all year to get into the NCAA's and your reward is a trip to potato town.

Schmolik

Schmolik's Comments on the NCAA

2009-03-16T09:25:00.002-04:00

Hello, college basketball fans!

Just went to the Bracket Matrix (http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm). I actually did better than average and better than the last 2 years. Then again, these scores assume the committee was "right" which I don't always believe is true.

My thought was the same as most other bracketologists and Dick Vitale (is agreeing with Vitale a good thing)? Arizona was a highly questionable pick. Out of 61 brackets, only 8 (EIGHT!) had Arizona in their final bracket. I think the committee choked on that one. The team chosen on the 2nd fewest brackets was Maryland at 50 out of 61. Clearly there was some feeling they didn't belong but most (including me) thought they did. Surprisingly Wisconsin was left off of 5 brackets. I thought they were a lock. Minnesota was left off 4 and Boston College 3. Dayton and Michigan were left off just one each. So the consensus was 64 of 65 picks were legit. But who was the one who got screwed? Personally I feel anyone who says "this team belongs" or "doesn't belong" should pick their own bracket. It's not that I don't think St. Mary's doesn't belong, I just don't think they were one of the top 34 at large teams. According to the Matrix, the team that got screwed by the Committee was San Diego State. Still, they were chosen by less than half (28 of 61). Creighton was chosen by 20 and St. Mary's by just 17. Penn State was chosen by 10, still more than Arizona. No other team was picked more than once. But there was no clear cut consensus on who the last team was. If we formed a committee of 61, we would spend half of the field discussion on the last team alone. Maybe they should just go to 64.

I thought maybe Memphis and UConn could go either way. It looks like more of us picked UConn (I had Memphis). I do like them in the same bracket. I thought BC at 7 was a reach. Their RPI is in the 57's. They should be happy to just be in the field. I may have gone overboard with Tennessee, making them a 5. But I was shocked to see them as a 9 seed. Remember three years ago no one but the NCAA's had Tennessee anywhere near a 2 seed and they got it. Now I didn't figure out who was on the committee (Arizona's AD maybe?) but I do know Mike Slive of the SEC was the head. Considering the SEC got just 3, I can't see any favoritism there. Tennessee were approx. a 7 seed by the bracketologists and I did see plenty of 6's.

I think it is weird that Florida State and Xavier are sent to Boise when Miami would make more sense. Utah and Arizona are sent to Miami instead. They should just switch those pods. If Arizona is the last team in, they should have to go to Boise. Honestly, it's a joke Boise even gets to host the NCAA's at all and I think they host them a lot. I always have to watch out who I send to Boise in my bracket. I personally put the last two teams to make my field there as well as Mississippi State, a party crasher. Purdue was stuck there after winning the Big 10 tournament. Had Purdue lost, I would've had to stick Illinois there!

Otherwise, pretty good job by the committee except for Arizona.

Schmolik

Final 2009 Schmolik 64!

2009-03-15T00:18:00.004-04:00

Hello, college basketball fans!

2009 Schmolik 64! (Note: I really don't have the computer time to spend on checking the matchups so there may be duplicate matches. Maybe later next week I can change them).

EAST (Boston Thur/Sat)

Greensboro, NC Thur/Sat
1 North Carolina vs 16 Radford*
8 BYU vs 9 Marquette

Portland, OR Thur/Sat
5 Xavier vs 12 VCU*
4 Washington vs 13 American*

Philadelphia, PA Thur/Sat
6 Illinois vs 11 Cleveland State *
3 Villanova vs 14 Binghamton *

Kansas City, MO Thur/Sat
7 Clemson vs 10 USC *
2 Missouri * vs 15 Big West Champ

WEST (Glendale, AZ Thur/Sat) - East meets West in SF

Kansas City, MO Thur/Sat
1 Memphis * vs 16 Chattanooga *
8 Butler vs 9 California

Boise, ID Fri/Sun
5 Utah * vs 12 Minnesota
4 Wake Forest vs 13 Mississippi State*

Portland, OR Thur/Sat
6 UCLA vs 11 Boston College
3 Oklahoma vs 14 Southland Champ

Philadelphia, PA Thur/Sat
7 Ohio State vs 10 Utah State*
2 Connecticut vs 15 Robert Morris*

SOUTH (Memphis, TN Fri/Sun)

Dayton, OH Fri/Sun
1 Louisville * vs 16 Morgan State *
8 Siena * vs 9 Texas A&M

Boise, ID Fri/Sun
5 Purdue * vs 12 Maryland
4 Gonzaga * vs 13 Northern Iowa *

Minneapolis, MN Fri/Sun
6 West Virginia vs 11 Michigan
3 Kansas vs 14 North Dakota State *

Greensboro, NC Thur/Sat
7 LSU vs 10 Temple *
2 Duke vs 15 Cornell *

MIDWEST (Indianapolis, IN Fri/Sun)

Dayton, OH Fri/Sun
1 Pittsburgh vs Play In - SWAC Champ * vs Morehead St *
8 Texas vs 9 Wisconsin

Miami, FL Fri/Sun
5 Tennessee vs 12 Western Kentucky *
4 Florida State vs 13 Akron *

Miami, FL Fri/Sun
6 Arizona State vs 11 Dayton
3 Syracuse vs 14 E Tennessee State *

Minneapolis, MN Fri/Sun
7 Oklahoma State vs 10 San Diego State
2 Michigan State vs 15 Portland State*

Schmolik

Schmolik Bubble Watch Fri. 3/13 1:51am

2009-03-13T01:45:00.000-04:00

Schmolik Bubble Watch

Hello, college basketball fans!

Updated: March 13, 2009 1:51am. After SIX OT's of Connecticut and Syracuse!

It's time for Schmolik's Bubble Watch. For many teams, this is a make or break week. Bubble Watch analyzes who is on the bubble and their chances of making the NCAA's.

First, teams that I feel are locks for the tournament. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind during the week. Automatic Bids not included.

ACC: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Duke, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College
A-10: Xavier, Dayton
Big East: Louisville, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big 10: Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State
Big 12: Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Texas
C-USA: Memphis
Horizon: Butler
MWC: Utah, Brigham Young
Pac 10: Washington, UCLA
SEC: LSU, Tennessee

Total # Locks: 34
Minimum # Locks: 25

March 13 Update: Siena won automatic bid, Boston College added to locks, Miami, Cincinnati, Georgetown, New Mexico, and UNLV removed from consideration

Stats courtesy of CBSSports.com and Joe Lunardi's InsideRPI (ESPN Insider Subscription required). Rankings are as of March 8, 2009.

RPI/ Conf or Non Conf RPI: Good RPI is 30's or higher, marginal is 40's, poor is 50's or below.
Last 12 games: 8-4 or better is a strength, 6-6 or lower a weakness.
SOS/Non Conf SOS: Good is top 20, bad is below 100.
Top 25 games: Strength: Two or more, Weakness: Zero
Top 50 games: Strength: Four or more, Weakness: One or fewer
Bad losses: Weakness: Home losses to teams below 100 in RPI, Loss to teams below 200 in RPI

Bubble Teams (In/Out as of Last Schmolik 64 Update)

ACC

Maryland (Out)

Strengths: Two Top 25 wins (vs Michigan State, North Carolina), Bubble wins (Michigan, Virginia Tech)

Weaknesses: RPI (67), Conf RPI (61), 5-7 in last 12 games, Non Conf SOS (136), Bad Loss (Morgan State)

Should Be In If: They make the ACC Final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the ACC SF, beating Wake Forest, They beat NC State but lose to Wake Forest

Outlook: A hard sell at this point, even if they win their first tourney game. A win over Wake would help a lot, but it may not even be enough.

Virginia Tech (Out)

StrengthsL Two Top 25 Wins (at Wake Forest, at Clemson)

Weaknesses: RPI (63), Non Conf RPI (67), Non Conf SOS (158), 4-8 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (at Maryland)

Should Be In If: They make the ACC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the ACC SF, beating North Carolina, They beat Miami but lose to North Carolina

Outlook: Just like Maryland, a win over North Carolina might not be enough and it would be very unlikely if they don't beat the Tar Heels. One thing for sure, the loser of the VaTech/Miami game definitely is out.

Atlantic 10

Temple (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf SOS (20), 8-4 in last 12 games, Bubble Wins (at Penn State)

Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (58), Only one Top 50 win (Tennessee)

Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final, beating Xavier
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the A-10 SF, losing to Xavier

Outlook: OK RPI numbers, the Penn State win will give the Owls some consideration (assuming they lose to Xavier).

Big East

Providence (Out)

Strengths: Two Top 25 wins (Syracuse, Pittsburgh)

Weaknesses: RPI (71), Conf RPI (57), Non Conf RPI (83), Non Conf SOS (157), 6-6 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (vs St. Mary's)

Tournament Road: Beat DePaul, Lost to Louisville

Outlook: Not much positive to say, the two bubble wins are over teams with little or no chance of making the NCAA's anyway

Big 10

Penn State (In)

Strengths: Three Top 25 wins (at Michigan State, at Illinois, Illinois), Six Top 50 wins (also Purdue, Michigan, Minnesota), Bubble Wins (Michigan, Minnesota)

Weaknesses: RPI (66), Conf RPI (55), Non Conf RPI (92), Non Conf SOS (313!), Bubble Losses (at Temple, at Minnesota, at Michigan)

Should Be In If: Beats Purdue, makes SF
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses to Purdue

Outlook: I realize no one wants to come to the middle of nowhere in Pennsylvania in the winter (trust me, I've been there), but their non conference SOS is dreadful and the committee can send a message and keep them out if they fail to beat Purdue. Of course, those top 25 and top 50 wins are impressive.

Michigan (In)

Strengths: Conf RPI (36), Non Conf RPI (35), SOS (10), Two Top 25 Wins (Illinois, Duke), Six Top 50 Wins (also vs UCLA, Minnesota, Purdue, at Minnesota), Bubble Wins (Penn State, Minnesota - 2)

Weaknesses: 6-6 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (at Penn State)

Should Be In If: Beats Illinois, makes SF
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses to Illinois

Outlook: Penn State finished a game ahead of Michigan in the standings but Michigan has a significantly higher conference RPI as they played a tougher Big 10 schedule. They also played a much better non conference schedule which included wins over UCLA and Duke. Don't be surprised if Michigan gets taken over Penn State if it came down to one or the other.

Minnesota (In)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (16), Two Top 25 Wins (vs Louisville, Illinois), Five Top 50 Wins (also Ohio State, at Wisconsin, Wisconsin), Bubble Wins (Penn State)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (60), Non Conf SOS (184), 5-7 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (at Penn State, at Michigan, Michigan)

Should Be In If: Beats Michigan State, makes SF
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses to Michigan State

Outlook: They have the worst conf RPI of the three Big 10 bubble schools and were swept by Michigan which could hurt them if it comes down to them and the Wolverines (and Michigan just won at Minnesota in the last game). Probably would have a better chance if Penn State loses in their 1st game.

Big 12
No Bubble Teams

Conf USA
No Bubble Teams

MWC

New Mexico (In)

Strengths: Conf RPI (22), 10-2 in last 12 games, Two Top 25 wins (Utah, BYU), Bubble wins (San Diego State)

Weaknesses: RPI (58), Non Conf RPI (103), Non Conf SOS (171), Bubble losses (at San Diego State)

Should Be In If: Makes the MWC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Makes the MWC SF
Should Be Out If: Loses their first MWC game to Wyoming

Outlook: Tying for the MWC lead will give them consideration but their low RPI and weak non conference schedule will probably cost them if they lose to Wyoming.

San Diego State (In)

Strengths: Conf RPI (34), 8-4 in last 12 games, Bubble wins (UNLV - 2, New Mexico)

Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (54), Only 1 Top 50 win (Utah), Bubble losses (at Arizona, at New Mexico)

Should Be In If: Makes the MWC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses to Utah in MWC SF

Outlook: A game behind New Mexico in conference. A loss to UNLV may not be fatal as they would still hold a 2-1 lead over the Rebels and the tournament is on UNLV's home court.

Pac 10

Arizona (In)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (38), 8-4 in last 12 games, Two Top 25 wins (Kansas, Washington), Five Top 50 wins (also vs Gonzaga, UCLA, San Diego State), Bubble Wins - San Diego State

Weaknesses: RPI (54), Conf RPI (65)

Tournament Road: Lost to Arizona State in QF

Outlook: Came on strong and have great wins. They avoid the potential bad loss in the 1st round which helps them. I would be rooting for San Diego State to beat UNLV as that would clearly help their chances

SEC

South Carolina (Out)

Strengths: 8-4 in last 12 games, Bubble Wins (Auburn)

Weaknesses: RPI (49), Non Conf RPI (76), Non Conf SOS (272), No Top 25 wins, Only one Top 50 win (Florida)

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Makes the SEC SF
Should Be Out If: Loses their first SEC game to Mississippi State

Outlook: Extremely weak in the quality win category and a pathetic non conference schedule, they have to show something in the SEC tournament.

Auburn (Out)

Strengths: Conf RPI (32), 9-3 in last 12 games

Weaknesses: RPI (64), Non Conf RPI (80), Non Conf SOS (194), Bad losses (Mercer), Bubble losses (at South Carolina)

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Makes the SEC SF
Should Be Out If: Loses their first SEC game to Florida

Outlook: The reason I don't have Florida in the bubble watch is that Florida does not have Auburn's conference RPI or Auburn's 9-3 finish. Of course, Auburn will miss the NCAA's if they lose to Florida but would at least put themselves in the conversation with a win over the Gators.

Other

Utah State (In)

Strengths: RPI (29), Conf RPI (28), 9-3 in last 12 games
Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (55), Non Conf SOS (186), Only One Top 50 win (Utah), Bubble loss (St. Mary's)

Should Be In If: Wins the tournament (automatic bid)
Should Be On the Bubble If: Does not lose to Hawaii or Fresno State

Outlook: Similar to Siena but they don't have the non conference scedule of Siena. A loss to Hawaii or Fresno State will likely plummet their RPI and conference RPI as well as end their at large hopes.

Creighton (In)

Strengths: RPI (39), 11-1 in last 12 games
Weaknesses: Conf RPI (50), SOS (111), Non Conf SOS (131), Bad losses (Drake)

Tournament Result: Lost to Illinois State in MVC SF

Outlook: I hesitate since they lost two of three to Illinois State which is right there in the RPI. The big differences are a three game difference in the MVC regular season standings and an 11-1 vs 7-5 for ISU. If it weren't for that, Creighton's chances would be better. Still, the committee has slighted the MVC in recent years and it wouldn't surprise me at all if they did again.

St. Mary's (In)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (28), 8-4 in last 12 games

Weaknesses; Conf RPI (109), SOS (143), No Top 25 wins

Tournament Result: Lost to Gonzaga in WCC Final

Outlook: They needed to get to the final. I'm not sure if that was impressive enough a victory. The win over Utah State will help their at large bid hopes.

Teams who I feel can play themselves into the tournament with a good week (list is not all inclusive). Teams previously listed that were eliminated have been removed.

C-USA: UAB, Tulsa
Pac 10: USC
SEC: Florida, Kentucky

Schmolik

Schmolik Bubble Watch (3/9/09)

2009-03-09T21:32:00.003-04:00

Schmolik Bubble Watch

Hello, college basketball fans!

Updated: March 9, 2009

It's time for Schmolik's Bubble Watch. For many teams, this is a make or break week. Bubble Watch analyzes who is on the bubble and their chances of making the NCAA's.

First, teams that I feel are locks for the tournament. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind during the week. Automatic Bids not included.

ACC: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Duke, Florida State, Clemson
A-10: Xavier, Dayton
Big East: Louisville, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big 10: Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State
Big 12: Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Texas
C-USA: Memphis
Horizon: Butler
MWC: Utah, Brigham Young
Pac 10: Washington, UCLA
SEC: LSU, Tennessee
WCC: Gonzaga

Total # Locks: 34
Minimum # Locks: 23

Stats courtesy of CBSSports.com and Joe Lunardi's InsideRPI (ESPN Insider Subscription required). Rankings are as of March 8, 2009.

RPI/ Conf or Non Conf RPI: Good RPI is 30's or higher, marginal is 40's, poor is 50's or below.
Last 12 games: 8-4 or better is a strength, 6-6 or lower a weakness.
SOS/Non Conf SOS: Good is top 20, bad is below 100.
Top 25 games: Strength: Two or more, Weakness: Zero
Top 50 games: Strength: Four or more, Weakness: One or fewer
Bad losses: Weakness: Home losses to teams below 100 in RPI, Loss to teams below 200 in RPI

Bubble Teams (In/Out as of Last Schmolik 64 Update)

ACC

Boston College (In)

Strengths: Conference RPI (37), 8-4 in last 12 games, Three Top 25 wins (at North Carolina, Duke, Florida State), Four Top 50 wins (also UAB), Bubble Wins (at Maryland, Virginia Tech, UAB, Providence)

Weaknesses: RPI (57), Non Conf RPI (69), Non Conf SOS (229), Bubble Losses: Miami (2), at Virginia Tech, Bad Loss: Harvard

Should Be In If: One ACC Win
Should Be On Bubble if: Loses first ACC game

Outlook: The safest of the ACC bubble teams, probably in for sure if it weren't for the Harvard loss.

Maryland (Out)

Strengths: Two Top 25 wins (vs Michigan State, North Carolina), Bubble wins (Michigan, Miami, Virginia Tech)

Weaknesses: RPI (67), Conf RPI (61), 5-7 in last 12 games, Non Conf SOS (133), Bubble Losses (vs Georgetown, at Miami, Boston College), Bad Loss (Morgan State)

Should Be In If: They make the ACC Final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the ACC SF, beating Wake Forest, They beat NC State but lose to Wake Forest
Should Be Out If: They lose to NC State

Outlook: A hard sell at this point, even if they win their first tourney game. A win over Wake would help a lot, but it may not even be enough.

Virginia Tech (Out)

StrengthsL Two Top 25 Wins (at Wake Forest, at Clemson), Bubble Wins (Boston College, at Miami)

Weaknesses: RPI (62), Non Conf RPI (67), Non Conf SOS (159), 4-8 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (at Boston College, at Maryland)

Should Be In If: They make the ACC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the ACC SF, beating North Carolina, They beat Miami but lose to North Carolina
Should Be Out If: They lose to Miami

Outlook: Just like Maryland, a win over North Carolina might not be enough and it would be very unlikely if they don't beat the Tar Heels. One thing for sure, the loser of the VaTech/Miami game definitely is out.

Miami Florida (Out)

Strengths: Two Top 25 wins (Florida State, Wake Forest), Bubble Wins: Boston College (2), Maryland

Weaknesses: RPI (53), Non Conf RPI (52), Non Conf SOS (223), 5-7 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (at Maryland, Virginia Tech)

Should Be In If: They make the ACC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the ACC SF, beating North Carolina, They beat Virginia Tech but lose to North Carolina
Should Be Out If: They lose to Virginia Tech

Outlook: See Virginia Tech

Atlantic 10

Temple (Out)

Strengths: Non Conf SOS (20), 8-4 in last 12 games, Bubble Wins (at Penn State)

Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (57), Only one Top 50 win (Tennessee)

Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final, beating Xavier
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the A-10 SF, losing to Xavier
Should Be Out If: They lose in their first A-10 tourney game or lose the SF to someone other than Xavier

Outlook: OK RPI numbers, the Penn State win will give the Owls some consideration (assuming they lose to Xavier).

Big East

Providence (Out)

Strengths: Two Top 25 wins (Syracuse, Pittsburgh), Bubble wins (Cincinnati - 2)

Weaknesses: RPI (70), Conf RPI (50), Non Conf RPI (81), Non Conf SOS (158), 6-6 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (vs St. Mary's, at Boston College, at Georgetown)

Should Be In If: They make the Big East final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the Big East SF, They make the Big East QF, losing to Louisville
Should Be Out If: They lose their first Big East game to Cincinnati or DePaul.

Outlook: Not much positive to say, the two bubble wins are over teams with little or no chance of making the NCAA's anyway

Cincinnati (Out)

Strengths: Four Top 50 wins (UAB, Georgetown - 2, West Virginia), Bubble wins (at UNLV, Georgetown - 2)

Weaknesses: RPI (72), Conf RPI (84), 6-6 in last 12 games, No Top 25 Wins, Bubble Losses (Providence - 2)

Should Be In If: They make the Big East final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the Big East SF
Should Be Out If: They do not make the semifinals

Outlook: I don't think a win over Providence would be enough as Providence has already beaten Cincinnati twice and would stay ahead of them in the pecking order. The loss would probably do more to hurt Providence's chances than help Cincinnati's.

Georgetown (Out)

Strengths: SOS (4), Non Conf RPI (5), Non Conf SOS (11), Four Top 25 wins (Memphis, at Connecticut, Syracuse, at Villanova), Four Top 50 wins, Bubble Wins (vs Maryland, Providence)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (74), 4-8 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (Cincinnati - 2)

Should Be In If: They make the Big East final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the Big East SF, losing to Villanova, They make the Big East QF, losing to Marquette
Should Be Out If: They lose their first Big East game

Outlook: Don't laugh at the Hoyas. They clearly have played a tough schedule and a tough non conference schedule. Their RPI is in the middle and they have four top 25 wins. The tournament path works in their favor. If they win their first game, they have Marquette, which hasn't won a game since Dominic James went down. They are behind Cincinnati and Notre Dame in the Big East standings but the Selection Committee has been known to pass over teams with better conference records. Their top 25 wins might be enough and there's always a team that gets in with poor numbers but eye catching wins. If any team is that team this year, it's Georgetown.

Big 10

Penn State (In)

Strengths: Three Top 25 wins (at Michigan State, at Illinois, Illinois), Six Top 50 wins (also Purdue, Michigan, Minnesota), Bubble Wins (Michigan, Minnesota)

Weaknesses: RPI (63), Conf RPI (56), Non Conf RPI (90), Non Conf SOS (313!), Bubble Losses (at Temple, at Minnesota, at Michigan)

Should Be In If: Beats Indiana and Purdue, makes SF
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Indiana, loses to Purdue
Should Be Out If: Loses to Indiana!

Outlook: I realize no one wants to come to the middle of nowhere in Pennsylvania in the winter (trust me, I've been there), but their non conference SOS is dreadful and the committee can send a message and keep them out if they fail to beat Purdue. Of course, those top 25 and top 50 wins are impressive.

Michigan (In)

Strengths: Conf RPI (35), Non Conf RPI (34), SOS (10), Two Top 25 Wins (Illinois, Duke), Six Top 50 Wins (also vs UCLA, Minnesota, Purdue, at Minnesota), Bubble Wins (Penn State, Minnesota - 2)

Weaknesses: 6-6 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (at Penn State)

Should Be In If: Beats Iowa and Illinois, makes SF
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Iowa, loses to Illinois
Should Be Out If: Loses to Iowa

Outlook: Penn State finished a game ahead of Michigan in the standings but Michigan has a significantly higher conference RPI as they played a tougher Big 10 schedule. They also played a much better non conference schedule which included wins over UCLA and Duke. Don't be surprised if Michigan gets taken over Penn State if it came down to one or the other.

Minnesota (In)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (17), Two Top 25 Wins (vs Louisville, Illinois), Five Top 50 Wins (also Ohio State, at Wisconsin, Wisconsin), Bubble Wins (Penn State)

Weaknesses: Conf RPI (62), Non Conf SOS (186), 5-7 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (at Penn State, at Michigan, Michigan)

Should Be In If: Beats Northwestern and Michigan State, makes SF
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Northwestern, loses to Michigan State
Should Be Out If: Loses to Northwestern

Outlook: They have the worst conf RPI of the three Big 10 bubble schools and were swept by Michigan which could hurt them if it comes down to them and the Wolverines (and Michigan just won at Minnesota in the last game). Probably would have a better chance if Penn State loses in their 1st game.

Big 12
No Bubble Teams

Conf USA
No Bubble Teams

MWC

New Mexico (In)

Strengths: Conf RPI (20), 10-2 in last 12 games, Two Top 25 wins (Utah, BYU), Bubble wins (San Diego State, UNLV)

Weaknesses: RPI (58), Non Conf RPI (110), Non Conf SOS (177), Bubble losses (at San Diego State, at UNLV)

Should Be In If: Makes the MWC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Makes the MWC SF
Should Be Out If: Loses their first MWC game to Wyoming

Outlook: Tying for the MWC lead will give them consideration but their low RPI and weak non conference schedule will probably cost them if they lose to Wyoming.

San Diego State (In)

Strengths: Conf RPI (32), 8-4 in last 12 games, Bubble wins (UNLV - 2, New Mexico)

Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (53), Only 1 Top 50 win (Utah), Bubble losses (at Arizona, at New Mexico)

Should Be In If: Makes the MWC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Makes the MWC SF, Loses their first MWC game to UNLV

Outlook: A game behind New Mexico in conference. A loss to UNLV may not be fatal as they would still hold a 2-1 lead over the Rebels and the tournament is on UNLV's home court.

UNLV (Out)

Strengths: Four Top 25 Wins (at Louisville, BYU - 2, Utah), Four Top 50 Wins, Bubble wins - Arizona, New Mexico

Weaknesses: RPI (55), Conf RPI (82), Non Conf SOS (152), Bubble Losses - at New Mexico, San Diego State - 2, Cincinnati

Should Be In If: Makes the MWC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Makes the MWC SF, losing to Utah
Should Be Out If: Loses their first MWC game to San Diego State or their second game to someone other than Utah

Outlook: Finished two games behind San Diego State (and were swept by them) and three behind New Mexico. Of course, the four top 25 wins will help them (see Georgetown). I would hate to see UNLV get in over San Diego State if they win the quarterfinal, but I can see it happening.

Pac 10

Arizona (In)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (36), 8-4 in last 12 games, Two Top 25 wins (Kansas, Washington), Five Top 50 wins (also vs Gonzaga, UCLA, San Diego State), Bubble Wins - San Diego State

Weaknesses: RPI (52), Conf RPI (66), Bubble losses - at UNLV

Should Be In If: Beats Arizona State in Pac 10 QF
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses to Arizona State in Pac 10 QF

Outlook: Came on strong and have great wins. They avoid the potential bad loss in the 1st round which helps them. I would be rooting for San Diego State to beat UNLV as that would clearly help their chances

SEC

South Carolina (Out)

Strengths: Conf RPI (38), 8-4 in last 12 games, Bubble Wins (Auburn)

Weaknesses: RPI (50), Non Conf RPI (74), Non Conf SOS (275), No Top 25 wins, Only one Top 50 win (Florida)

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Makes the SEC SF
Should Be Out If: Loses their first SEC game to Mississippi State or Georgia

Outlook: Extremely weak in the quality win category and a pathetic non conference schedule, they have to show something in the SEC tournament.

Auburn (Out)

Strengths: Conf RPI (31), 9-3 in last 12 games

Weaknesses: RPI (64), Non Conf RPI (82), Non Conf SOS (198), Bad losses (Mercer), Bubble losses (at South Carolina)

Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Makes the SEC SF
Should Be Out If: Loses their first SEC game to Florida or Arkansas

Outlook: The reason I don't have Florida in the bubble watch is that Florida does not have Auburn's conference RPI or Auburn's 9-3 finish. Of course, Auburn will miss the NCAA's if they lose to Florida but would at least put themselves in the conversation with a win over the Gators.

Other

Siena (In)

Strengths: RPI (24), Conf RPI (23), Non Conf RPI (37), Non Conf SOS (2), 10-2 in last 12 games

Weaknesses: No Top 25 or Top 50 wins

Should Be In If: Wins the tournament (automatic bid)
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses the final to Niagara

Outlook: Pretty much "no quality wins" is the only reason they would not make the tourmanent, but that could be enough for the Selection Committee. Considering they have the second best non conference schedule in the country (and that's saying something), I would be furious if they didn't make it in, especially considering they made the final and would lose to Niagara who would probably make the top 50 in RPI if they beat Siena. Of course, if they win it's a moot point.

Utah State (In)

Strengths: RPI (27), Conf RPI (28), 9-3 in last 12 games
Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (51), Non Conf SOS (167), Only One Top 50 win (Utah), Bubble loss (St. Mary's)

Should Be In If: Wins the tournament (automatic bid)
Should Be On the Bubble If: Does not lose to Hawaii or Fresno State
Should Be Out If: Loses to Hawaii or Fresno State

Outlook: Similar to Siena but they don't have the non conference scedule of Siena. A loss to Hawaii or Fresno State will likely plummet their RPI and conference RPI as well as end their at large hopes.

Creighton (In)

Strengths: RPI (39), 11-1 in last 12 games
Weaknesses: SOS (105), Non Conf SOS (128), Bad losses (Drake)

Tournament Result: Lost to Illinois State in MVC SF

Outlook: I hesitate since they lost two of three to Illinois State which is right there in the RPI. The big differences are a three game difference in the MVC regular season standings and an 11-1 vs 7-5 for ISU. If it weren't for that, Creighton's chances would be better. Still, the committee has slighted the MVC in recent years and it wouldn't surprise me at all if they did again.

St. Mary's (In)

Strengths: Non Conf RPI (31), 8-4 in last 12 games

Weaknesses; Conf RPI (114), SOS (170), No Top 25 wins

Should Be In If: Wins the tournament (automatic bid)
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses to Gonzaga in the WCC final

Outlook: They needed to get to the final. I'm not sure if that was impressive enough a victory. The win over Utah State will help their at large bid hopes.

Teams who I feel can play themselves into the tournament with a good week (list is not all inclusive).
Atlantic 10: Rhode Island
Big East: Notre Dame
Big 10: Northwestern
Big 12: Kansas State
C-USA: UAB, Tulsa
Pac 10: USC
SEC: Florida, Kentucky

Schmolik

Schmolik 64 Update (3/9/09) - 7pm ET

2009-03-09T19:06:00.000-04:00

Hello, college basketball fans!

This is the fourth Schmolik 64 update for 2009. This is the first one with all 65 teams bracketed. I tried to list a slot for each one bid conference that has not finished their tournament although it isn't perfect and subject to change dependent on the actual teams.

EAST (Boston, MA - Thur/Sat)

Dayton, OH - Fri/Sun
1 Pittsburgh (27-3) vs 16 Play In Winner - Morehead State * (17-15) vs SWAC Champion
8 Arizona State (22-8) vs 9 Wisconsin (18-11)

Miami, FL - Fri/Sun
5 Florida State (23-8) vs 12 Northern Iowa * (22-10)
4 Xavier (24-6) vs 13 Southland Champion

Greensboro, NC - Thur/Sat
6 Texas A&M (22-8) vs 11 New Mexico (21-10)
3 Duke (25-6) vs 14 American East Champion (Binghamton/UMBC)

Minneapolis, MN - Fri/Sun
7 Marquette (23-8) vs 10 Utah State (26-4)
2 Michigan State (25-3) vs 15 Southern Champion (Chattanooga/Charleston)

WEST (Glendale, AZ - Thur/Sat)

Philadelphia, PA - Thur/Sat
1 Connecticut (27-3) vs 16 Northeast Champion (Robert Morris/Mt. St. Mary's)
8 Purdue (22-9) vs 9 Tennessee (19-11)

Portland, OR - Thur/Sat
5 Clemson (23-7) vs 12 San Diego State (19-8)
4 Gonzaga (24-5) vs 13 MAC Champion

Portland, OR - Thur/Sat
6 Syracuse (22-8) vs 11 Penn State (21-10)
3 Washington (23-7) vs 14 Big Sky Champion

Kansas City, MO - Thur/Sat
7 BYU (23-6) vs 10 Boston College (21-10)
2 Kansas (25-6) vs 15 Radford * (18-11)

SOUTH (Memphis, TN - Fri/Sun)

Greensboro, NC - Thur/Sat
1 North Carolina (26-3) vs 16 MEAC Champion
8 Texas (20-10) vs 9 West Virginia (21-10)

Boise, ID - Fri/Sun
5 Butler (25-4) vs 12 St. Mary's (23-5)
4 UCLA (24-7) vs 13 Minnesota (20-9) / Niagara (26-7)

Philadelphia, PA - Thur/Sat
6 Illinois (23-8) vs 11 Creighton (26-7)
3 Villanova (25-6) vs 14 America East Champion (Binghamton/UMBC)

Minneapolis, MN - Fri/Sun
7 LSU (25-6) vs 10 Dayton (25-6)
2 Oklahoma (27-4) vs 15 E. Tennessee State * (21-10)

MIDWEST (Indianapolis, IN - Fri/Sun)

Kansas City, MO - Thur/Sat
1 Memphis (28-3) vs 16 Big West Champion
8 Siena (25-7) vs 9 Ohio State (20-9)

Boise, ID - Fri/Sun
5 Utah (21-8) vs 12 Arizona (19-12)
4 Missouri (24-6) vs 13 Sun Belt Champion

Miami, FL - Fri/Sun
6 California (22-9) vs 11 Colonial Champion (George Mason/Virginia Commonwealth)
3 Wake Forest (24-5) vs 14 Summit Champion

Dayton, OH - Fri/Sun
7 Oklahoma State (20-10) vs 10 Michigan (18-12)
2 Louisville (25-5) vs 15 Cornell * (19-9)

Conf. Alignment:
Big Ten - 8
Big East - 7
ACC - 6
Big 12 - 6
Pac 10 - 5
MWC - 4
SEC - 2
A-10 - 2
WCC - 2
MVC - 2
Others - 21

Schmolik

Schmolik 64 Update (2/28/09 - Morning)

2009-02-28T10:41:00.000-05:00

Hello, college basketball fans!

This is the 3rd Schmolik 64 Update. Records as of Friday, Feb. 27. Top 12 Seeds Only

EAST (Boston, MA - Thur/Sat)

Philadelphia, PA (Thur/Sat)
1 Connecticut (26-2) vs 16
8 Siena (22-6) vs 9 Maryland (17-10)

Boise, ID (Fri/Sun)
5 Arizona State (21-6) vs 12 Miami (16-10)
4 Utah (20-6) vs 13

Portland, OR (Thur/Sat)
6 Gonzaga (21-5) vs 11 Kentucky (19-9)
3 Missouri (23-4) vs 14

Greensboro, NC (Thur/Sat)
7 South Carolina (20-6) vs 10 West Virginia (19-9)
2 Duke (23-5) vs 15

MIDWEST (Indianapolis, IN - Fri/Sun)

Dayton, OH (Fri/Sun)
1 Pittsburgh (24-3) vs Play In Winner
8 Tennessee (17-10) vs 9 Wisconsin (16-10)

Miami, FL (Fri/Sun)
5 Xavier (23-5) vs 12 Arizona (18-10)
4 Florida State (21-7) vs 13

Portland, OR (Thur/Sat)
6 UCLA (21-7) vs 11 Providence (17-11)
3 Wake Forest (21-5) vs 14

Minneapolis, MN (Fri/Sun)
7 Butler (23-4) vs 10 Oklahoma State (18-9)
2 Michigan State (22-5) vs 15

SOUTH (Memphis, TN Fri/Sun)

Greensboro, NC (Thur/Sat)
1 North Carolina (23-3) vs 16
8 Texas (19-8) vs 9 Utah State (25-3)

Minneapolis, MN (Fri/Sun)
5 Illinois (23-6) vs 12 New Mexico (18-10)
4 Marquette (23-5) vs 13

Kansas City, MO (Fri/Sun)
6 LSU (24-4) vs 11 Creighton (24-6)
3 Kansas (23-5) vs 14

Dayton, OH (Fri/Sun)
7 Boston College (20-9) vs 10 Ohio State (18-8)
2 Louisville (22-5) vs 15

WEST (Glendale, AZ - Thur/Sat)

Kansas City, MO (Thur/Sat)
1 Oklahoma (25-3) vs 16
8 BYU (20-6) vs 9 Syracuse (19-8)

Boise, ID (Fri/Sun)
5 Clemson (22-5) vs 12 Michigan (17-11)
4 Washington (21-7) vs 13

Philadelphia, PA (Thur/Sat)
6 Purdue (21-7) vs 11 Virginia Tech (17-10)
3 Villanova (23-5)

Miami, FL (Fri/Sun)
7 California (21-7) vs 10 Dayton (23-5)
2 Memphis (25-3)

Schmolik

Schmolik 64 Update (2/16/09)

2009-02-16T19:53:00.000-05:00

Hello, college basketball fans!

Top 12 Seeds in each regional only. Records as of 2/15/09

EAST REGIONAL (Boston, MA Thur/Sat March 26-28)

Philadelphia, PA (Thur/Sat)
1 Connecticut (24-1) vs 16
8 Ohio State (17-6) vs 9 South Carolina (18-5)

Boise, ID (Fri/Sun)
5 Arizona State (20-5) vs 12 Boston College (16-8)
4 Kansas (20-5)

Portland, OR (Thur/Sat)
6 Gonzaga (18-5) vs 11 Florida (19-6)
3 Xavier (21-4) vs 14

Greensboro, NC (Thur/Sat)
7 Syracuse (18-7) vs 10 Arizona (18-8)
2 Wake Forest (19-4) vs 15

WEST REGIONAL (Phoenix, AZ Thur/Sat March 26-28)

Dayton, OH (Fri/Sun)
1 Pittsburgh (22-2) vs Play In Winner (by default, only #1 seed playing on Friday)
8 Virginia Tech (16-8) vs 9 Texas (17-7)

Portland, OR (Thur/Sat)
5 Purdue (19-6) vs 12 BYU (18-5)
4 California (19-6) vs 13

Miami, FL (Fri/Sun)
6 UCLA (19-6) vs 11 Siena (20-6)
3 Clemson (20-4) vs 14

Dayton, OH (Fri/Sun)
7 Tennessee (16-8) vs Davidson (21-4)
2 Michigan State (20-4) vs 15

MIDWEST REGIONAL (Indianapolis, IN Fri/Sun March 27-29)

Greensboro, NC (Thur/Sat)
1 North Carolina (22-2) vs 16
8 West Virginia (17-8) vs 9 Minnesota (18-6)

Boise, ID (Fri/Sun)
5 Washington (19-6) vs 12 San Diego State (16-6)
4 Missouri (21-4) vs 13

Philadelphia, PA (Thur/Sat)
6 LSU (21-4) vs 11 Miami (14-9)
3 Villanova (20-5) vs 14

Kansas City, MO (Thur/Sat)
7 Butler (21-3) vs 10 Temple (15-9)
2 Memphis (22-3) vs 15

SOUTH REGIONAL (Memphis, TN Fri/Sun March 27-29)

Kansas City, MO (Thur/Sat)
1 Oklahoma (25-1) vs 16
8 Florida State (19-6) vs 9 Utah State (23-2)

Minneapolis, MN (Fri/Sun)
5 Illinois (21-5) vs 12 USC (15-9)
4 Marquette (21-4) vs 13

Minneapolis, MN (Fri/Sun)
6 Utah (18-6) vs 11 Kentucky (18-7)
3 Duke (20-5) vs 14

Miami, FL (Fri/Sun)
7 Dayton (23-3) vs 10 Wisconsin (15-9)
2 Louisville (19-5) vs 15

Schmolik 64 Update 1/26/09

2009-01-26T23:10:00.000-05:00

Hello, college basketball fans!

This is the first update for the 2009 Schmolik 64 (Records as of 1/25/09)

Only top 12 seeds in each regional listed

EAST REGIONAL (Boston, MA - Thur/Sat March 26-28)

Philadelphia, PA (Thur/Sat March 19-21)
1 Pitt (17-1) vs 16
8 Miami (13-5) vs 9 Missouri (16-3)

Boise, ID (Fri/Sun March 20-22)
5 Arizona State (16-3) vs 12 Utah (12-6)
4 Memphis (16-3) vs 13

Minneapolis, MN (Fri/Sun March 20-22)
6 Syracuse (16-4) vs 11 Davidson (15-3)
3 Xavier (17-2) vs 14

Greensboro, NC (Thur/Sat March 19-21)
7 Florida (17-3) vs 10 Ohio State (13-5)
2 Wake Forest (16-1) vs 15

MIDWEST REGIONAL (Indianapolis, Fri/Sun March 27-29)

Greensboro, NC (Thur/Sat March 19-21)
1 Duke (18-1) vs 16
8 Villanova (15-4) vs 9 Utah State (18-1)

Boise, ID (Fri/Sun March 20-22)
5 Gonzaga (13-4) vs 12 Michigan (13-6)
4 Kansas (15-4) vs 13

Minneapolis, MN (Fri/Sun March 20-22)
6 UCLA (15-4) vs 11 UNLV (16-4)
3 Marquette (17-2) vs 14

Dayton, OH (Fri/Sun March 20-22)
7 Virginia Tech (14-5) vs 10 Oklahoma State (13-5)
2 Michigan State (16-3) vs 15

SOUTH REGIONAL (Memphis Fri/Sun March 27-29)

Kansas City, MO (Thur/Sat March 19-21)
1 Oklahoma (19-1) vs 16
8 West Virginia (14-5) vs 9 California (16-4)

Portland, OR (Thur/Sat March 19-21)
5 Illinois (17-3) vs 12 Boston College (15-6)
4 Butler (17-1) vs 13

Miami, FL (Fri/Sun March 20-22)
6 Kentucky (16-4) vs 11 Dayton (18-2)
3 Clemson (17-2) vs 14

Dayton, OH (Fri/Sun March 20-22)
7 Purdue (15-4) vs 10 Siena (15-5)
2 Louisville (15-3) vs 15

WEST REGIONAL (Phoenix Thur/Sat March 26-28)

Philadelphia, PA (Thur/Sat March 19-21)
1 Connecticut (18-1) vs 16
8 Baylor (14-4) vs 9 Florida State (16-4)

Portland, OR (Thur/Sat March 19-21)
5 Tennessee (12-6) vs 12 Wisconsin (11-7)
4 Washington (15-4) vs 13

Kansas City, MO (Thur/Sat March 19-21)
6 Georgetown (12-6) vs 11 BYU (14-4)
3 Texas (14-4) vs 14

Miami, FL (Fri/Sun March 20-22)
7 Minnesota (16-3) vs 10 St. Mary's (16-1)
2 North Carolina (16-2) vs 15