Hello, college basketball fans! Happy St. Patrick's Day!
Time for this year's Schmolik Bracket Analysis. Just to give you a reason to read this: In 2007, I correctly picked all eight of the final eight teams, three of the Final Four, both finalists, and correctly picked Florida to win it all over Ohio State. My final was 75-67 (8 pts) and the winning score was 84-75 (9 pts). North Carolina lost to Georgetown in overtime. Had UNC won, I would've had all four Final Four teams! Now last two years, maybe not so much. Last year, I had Carolina losing to Louisville in the final and had one of the Final Four (Carolina). In 2008, I picked two of the Final Four (UNC and UCLA) and picked both to make the Final Four (instead the two #1's I picked to get upset went to the championship game).
Normally, I start with Illinois's bracket but we all know Illinois's not in it.
I'll start with the #1 overall seed and I would say the toughest regional. You got Kansas, Ohio State, Georgetown, Maryland, Michigan State, and Tennessee in one regional. Usually there's one tough regional but I wonder if this could be one of the toughest ever. Luckily for Kansas, they have reasonable drives to Oklahoma City and St. Louis on their way to the Final Four. I heard a little about mid majors playing each other in the 1st round. Is it a good thing that one will make the 2nd round or bad because both won't get the chance to knock off competition from power conferences. I seem to like to see the mid major vs power conference in Round 1 and when picking the Schmolik 64 I usually try to do this. Well, UNLV plays Northern Iowa in this round. I like Northern Iowa in this one. We have some great 2nd round matchups in Maryland vs Michigan State (the folks in Spokane are really lucky) and Georgetown vs Tennessee. Tennessee has beaten Kansas and Kentucky but they don't play NCAA tournament games at home so I'll pick Georgetown. I've learned when in doubt go with Tom Izzo, so I'll pick Michigan State over Maryland but not over Kansas. I won't be surprised in this regional if Kansas doesn't make the Final Four but you have to go with them as the favorite. I'll say Kansas over Georgetown in the regional final and will say if you want to see one regional this year, head to St. Louis. Because it's in a dome, you probably can still get tickets if the Kansas fans haven't bought them already.
I'll head to the West Regional next. Must be the loss to St. Mary's, but I'm not feeling Gonzaga this year (despite the fact that they beat Illinois, one of about 10 games had Illinois won they'd probably be in the tournament). Plus, they are heading to Buffalo. As much as I speak about Spokane and Boise, I'll imagine most of you Westerners are thinking about Buffalo. I mean, we have plenty of great NCAA sites here in the East, so why Buffalo? I think Gonzaga could be in a heap of trouble and will be beaten by Florida State. The real bad news for Gonzaga? Here's a non tournament prediction for you, see if I'm right. We know Mark Few's name gets tossed around all the time whenever any big time college basketball program opening comes up. I'm sure Few has rejected better programs but Oregon is Few's alma mater and he grew up close to Eugene. It's one thing to turn down a lot of other jobs in a far off area, but I think Mark may listen if Oregon calls (and rumors say Ernie Kent is on his way out). I would be shocked if Few wasn't at the top of Oregon's list and with the weakness of the Pac 10 this year, is there any doubt Few could lead them to near the top of the Pac 10 next year if he goes there? I'm not saying Few would go if Oregon calls. I would say if Few doesn't go, he probably will be at Gonzaga the rest of his life.
Getting back to the West regional, watch out for Butler making the Sweet 16 (although I would pick Vanderbilt). Actually, Murray State could be a big upset in round 1. We could have a rematch of Pitt/Xavier in the 2nd round (they met last year in the Sweet 16). BYU hasn't won a tournament game since 1993 and I would imagine a lot of fans of teams that thought they should be in the tournament will be rooting for BYU to beat Florida. Normally Billy Donovan vs. whoever BYU's coach is would seem to be a mismatch but consider BYU made the tournament the last two years and Florida didn't. There are plenty of cases of coaches who made a perceived jump up and failed but you wonder if Billy Donovan made a mistake not jumping (he could have been coaching Dwight Howard in the NBA Finals last June and since then Florida missed the NCAA's and barely made it in this year). In considering the best coaches to not make the Final Four, I'd imagine Jamie Dixon would be up there with Mark Few at the top of my head. This year he took a young team to a #3 seed. I think Pittsburgh has the edge over Kansas State but like last year I think he will meet his end in the Elite Eight to a Big East rival - Syracuse. Keep in mind Pitt was one of the teams that beat Syracuse earlier this year. I think Syracuse may have the easiest path to the Final 8 of anyone.
Let's return East and it is unusual seeing someone outside the ACC or Big East as the #1 seed. But Kentucky leads the pack here. John Calipari has said his team is one of the youngest teams in the NCAA's but also compared his team to the Final Four (not a bad comparison). The biggest collapse of the season has to be Texas, dropping all the way to an 8 seed after being ranked #1 this year. They could either be the team that was #1 or the team that struggled through the tough Big 12. Kentucky hopes they see the 2nd half Texas team and not the first. I think Temple was shafted as they should've been a 3 seed. If you are rooting for a coach to just win one game, Fran Dunphy. His record in the NCAA's? 1-11. He won in 1994 over Nebraska when he was coaching Penn. It's an interesting matchup vs. Cornell in the 1st round. Cornell's coach was an assistant under Dunphy at Penn. This is also a pair of teams that were in the NCAA's the last two years and lost in the 1st round each time. I have to go with Wisconsin to make the Sweet 16. Another guy you don't want to go against is Bo Ryan. The bottom looks to be Bob Huggins and West Virginia's. If you call it an upset, Washington over an overrated Marquette. It's the second year in a row that Marquette went west and played a western team. That's usually a bad thing. But Marquette won last year in the same round. I think New Mexico got a pretty good draw to the Sweet 16 as I think Tennessee or Xavier (other 6's) would be favored over the Lobos. With Kentucky, it's either talent or experience and I'll go with talent and pick them over West Virginia.
As for the weakest regional, of course it is the South. Duke got everything from the play in winner to the weakest 2 and 3 seeds IMHO and a Hummel less Purdue. Then again, I'm not sure Duke is that strong despite winning the ACC (a really weak ACC). While the teams aren't really strong, the challenge will be playing in Houston against potentially two Big 12 teams (Houston is also a big stadium and if there were tickets available they'll be bought by the Texas A&M and Baylor fans). I think the Purdue seeding is fair but if another team I thought got screwed in seeding? Siena. Can you even call Siena beating Purdue an upset. Here's another upset I can see - Old Dominion over Notre Dame. Baylor is I feel a weak 3 but I'm not sure any of their opponents can beat them. I think A&M and Baylor have decent paths to the Sweet 16 which could be huge trouble for Duke and Villanova. I love Villanova but I think they are overseeded. I would pick them over Baylor normally but I have a feeling the crowd may make the difference in both semifinal games. So this may be the stupidest Final Four pick I've ever made - Texas A&M over Baylor in the final!
Final Four: Kentucky has to beat Texas A&M (although a Kentucky/Duke semifinal will be highly anticipated) and I'll give the edge to Kansas over Syracuse. In the final, the youth has to become a factor eventually so I'll pick Kansas to win it all. I will say the bracket seems kind of unbalanced and teams I probably wouldn't pick (A&M) I wound up picking. Kansas can just as easily lose in the Sweet 16 as win it all. At least the games should be close. I imagine the winning scores will be quite low this season.
Recap:
Midwest: Kansas over Ohio State
West: Syracuse over Pittsburgh
East: Kentucky over West Virginia
South: Texas A&M over Baylor
Final Four: Kansas over Syracuse, Kentucky over Texas A&M
Championship: Kansas over Kentucky
Schmolik
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Monday, March 15, 2010
Comments on Women's Bracket
Hello, women's college basketball fans!
Well, I missed on three teams in my women's Schmolik 64. I had Boston College, USC, and Illinois State while the NCAA had North Carolina, Arkansas Little Rock, and Wisconsin Green Bay. Obviously, UNC is a perennial power, but they were the 8/9 seed in the ACC and lost in the 1st round of the ACC to Maryland. Meanwhile, Boston College was the 7 seed and upset Florida State in the 1st round. I didn't realize when making my bracket that UNC had beaten Duke but then again so did BC (which I didn't know either). As for the RPI, USC was 36th and Illinois State was 50th while UALR was 56 and Wisc-Green Bay was 70 (Boston College was 48th)! I'll admit to missing on North Carolina although you can make a case for BC and UNC in the field. I found ESPN's experts and all of them said they were shocked at UWGB. Three said the biggest snub was USC and the other said Illinois State, two teams I had in my field. It's nice to see regular season champs make it in as an at large if they were upset in their conference tournament. But then, why not Illinois State? I think the MVC in women's must not be the same as the men's as Northern Iowa got a 16 seed.
As for the #1's, I had Duke over Nebraska. I can see Nebraska as a #1 over Duke, but over Tennessee (they put UConn and Tennessee in the same bracket)? I mean we have Tennessee and we have Nebraska. I didn't even know Nebraska had a women's basketball team until today. ESPN said before the show everyone wanted to see a Connecticut/Tennessee matchup in the final, now it can't happen. The RPI had Tennessee 3rd over Nebraska and both polls did as well. Nebraska lost in the semifinals of its tournament. And even if Nebraska was a #1, I thought put them with Duke, the clear cut #2. Nope, they got a #2 I had as a #3 while Duke and Tennessee have to meet in the regional final (and Big Ten Champ Ohio State gets to lose to UConn). These are the top six teams in the Kansas City regional: Nebraska, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Michigan State, and Georgia Tech. Not one won their conference tournament. I thought Duke received special treatment. Then again, they are Duke. What has Nebraska ever done before? Have they ever won an NCAA game (oh wait, that's the Nebraska men's team)?
I had the same 12 top 3 seeds as the NCAA's (had Duke instead of Nebraska as a #1 and Xavier instead of Notre Dame as a #2). I matched Iowa State and Kentucky as #4's. My other 4 seeds were Texas and Georgetown, the NCAA had Oklahoma State and Baylor, who I had as a 6 seed. Texas was seeded ahead of both in the Big 12 tournament and swept Baylor while Baylor got a 4 seed. I can see Ok State ahead of Texas (they upset #2 seed ISU in the Big 12) but not Baylor ahead of Texas. I often have teams overseeded and underseeded but this could be one of my most interesting mistakes. I had Middle Tennessee, Sun Belt champ as a #6 seed and Mississippi State as a #11 and playing each other. Well the Selection Committee had MSU as a 7 seed and Middle Tennessee as a #10 and ... playing each other. Usually you have a team with a gift seed getting a really easy opponent and a team that got screwed really getting screwed. But here, it seems like they both are getting what they deserved. If you go by the RPI, Midd Tenn is 23 and Miss St was 45. Let's see if the Selection Committee was right or I was.
Well I had fun putting it together and let's see if I do it again next year.
Schmolik
Well, I missed on three teams in my women's Schmolik 64. I had Boston College, USC, and Illinois State while the NCAA had North Carolina, Arkansas Little Rock, and Wisconsin Green Bay. Obviously, UNC is a perennial power, but they were the 8/9 seed in the ACC and lost in the 1st round of the ACC to Maryland. Meanwhile, Boston College was the 7 seed and upset Florida State in the 1st round. I didn't realize when making my bracket that UNC had beaten Duke but then again so did BC (which I didn't know either). As for the RPI, USC was 36th and Illinois State was 50th while UALR was 56 and Wisc-Green Bay was 70 (Boston College was 48th)! I'll admit to missing on North Carolina although you can make a case for BC and UNC in the field. I found ESPN's experts and all of them said they were shocked at UWGB. Three said the biggest snub was USC and the other said Illinois State, two teams I had in my field. It's nice to see regular season champs make it in as an at large if they were upset in their conference tournament. But then, why not Illinois State? I think the MVC in women's must not be the same as the men's as Northern Iowa got a 16 seed.
As for the #1's, I had Duke over Nebraska. I can see Nebraska as a #1 over Duke, but over Tennessee (they put UConn and Tennessee in the same bracket)? I mean we have Tennessee and we have Nebraska. I didn't even know Nebraska had a women's basketball team until today. ESPN said before the show everyone wanted to see a Connecticut/Tennessee matchup in the final, now it can't happen. The RPI had Tennessee 3rd over Nebraska and both polls did as well. Nebraska lost in the semifinals of its tournament. And even if Nebraska was a #1, I thought put them with Duke, the clear cut #2. Nope, they got a #2 I had as a #3 while Duke and Tennessee have to meet in the regional final (and Big Ten Champ Ohio State gets to lose to UConn). These are the top six teams in the Kansas City regional: Nebraska, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Michigan State, and Georgia Tech. Not one won their conference tournament. I thought Duke received special treatment. Then again, they are Duke. What has Nebraska ever done before? Have they ever won an NCAA game (oh wait, that's the Nebraska men's team)?
I had the same 12 top 3 seeds as the NCAA's (had Duke instead of Nebraska as a #1 and Xavier instead of Notre Dame as a #2). I matched Iowa State and Kentucky as #4's. My other 4 seeds were Texas and Georgetown, the NCAA had Oklahoma State and Baylor, who I had as a 6 seed. Texas was seeded ahead of both in the Big 12 tournament and swept Baylor while Baylor got a 4 seed. I can see Ok State ahead of Texas (they upset #2 seed ISU in the Big 12) but not Baylor ahead of Texas. I often have teams overseeded and underseeded but this could be one of my most interesting mistakes. I had Middle Tennessee, Sun Belt champ as a #6 seed and Mississippi State as a #11 and playing each other. Well the Selection Committee had MSU as a 7 seed and Middle Tennessee as a #10 and ... playing each other. Usually you have a team with a gift seed getting a really easy opponent and a team that got screwed really getting screwed. But here, it seems like they both are getting what they deserved. If you go by the RPI, Midd Tenn is 23 and Miss St was 45. Let's see if the Selection Committee was right or I was.
Well I had fun putting it together and let's see if I do it again next year.
Schmolik
The First Ever Schmolik WOMEN'S 64!
Hello, women's college basketball fans!
I've been doing the Schmolik 64 for a while now and always wanted to do a Schmolik 64 for the women's tournament (by the way, a true 64). Well, I've finally done it. Now I really don't know much about college basketball outside of Connecticut and only found RPI ratings from the NCAA website and the AP and USA Today ratings. Someone want to do a Paymon score on this bracket? Or better yet, how many teams I get correctly?
A few differences I found for the women's tournament. The sites are named after the cities, not the regions.There are 16 1st/2nd round sites so rather than two pods in each site, there are just one. If a school hosts a site, not only is the host school allowed to be there, I think there's an unwritten rule that they have to be there. I also think there are less strict rules on teams from the same conference being placed in the same regional and so on but I tried for the most part to split around the teams in the same conference in the bracket.
Here goes nothing:
Sat/Mon March 20-22
Sun/Tue March 21-23
Final Four is Dayton vs Kansas City and Sacramento vs Memphis
DAYTON REGIONAL - (Sun/Tue March 28-30) I can tell you this, no one wants to be in this regional for one obvious reason...
Sun/Tue games in Minneapolis, MN
1 CONNECTICUT (33-0) vs 16 AUSTIN PEAY (15-17)
8 TULANE (26-6) vs 9 Dayton (24-7)
Sat/Mon games in Louisville, KY
5 Oklahoma State (23-10) vs 12 LOUISIANA TECH (23-8)
4 Kentucky (25-7) vs 13 CHATTANOOGA (24-8)
Sat/Mon games in Tallahassee, FL
6 Baylor (23-9) vs 11 DePaul (21-11)
3 Florida State (26-5) vs 14 LIBERTY (27-5)
Sun/Tue games in Cincinnati, OH
7 Hartford (27-4) vs 10 Wisconsin (21-10)
2 XAVIER (27-3) vs 15 LAMAR (26-7)
KANSAS CITY REGIONAL (Sun/Tue March 28-30)
Sat/Mon games in Durham, NC
1 DUKE (27-5) vs 16 ST. FRANCIS (17-14)
8 Georgia (23-8) vs 9 Temple (24-8)
Sat/Mon games in Seattle, WA
5 GONZAGA (27-4) vs 12 Boston College (17-15)
4 Georgetown (25-6) vs 13 PRINCETON (26-2)
Sat/Mon games in Berkeley, CA
6 Ucla (24-8) vs 11 SAN DIEGO STATE (21-10)
3 West Virginia (28-5) vs 14 E. TENNESSEE ST (23-8)
Sat/Mon games in Tempe, AZ
7 NC State (20-13) vs 10 Usc (19-12)
2 Nebraska (30-1) vs 15 UC RIVERSIDE (17-15)
SACRAMENTO REGIONAL (Sat/Mon March 27-29)
Sat/Mon games in Palo Alto, CA
1 STANFORD (31-1) vs 16 PORTLAND STATE (18-14)
8 Lsu (20-9) vs 9 Fresno State (27-6)
Fri/Sun games in Austin, TX
5 St. John's (24-6) vs 12 Tcu (22-8)
4 Texas (22-10) vs 13 LEHIGH (29-3)
Fri/Sun games in Norman, OK
6 MIDDLE TENNESSEE (25-5) vs 11 Mississippi State (19-12)
3 Oklahoma (23-10) vs 14 NORTHERN IOWA (17-15)
Fri/Sun games in Pittsburgh, PA
7 Rutgers (19-14) vs 10 VERMONT (26-6)
2 OHIO STATE (30-4) vs 15 SOUTH DAKOTA ST (22-10)
MEMPHIS REGIONAL (Thur/Sat March 27-29)
Thur/Sat games in Knoxville, TN
1 TENNESSEE (30-2) vs 16 SOUTHERN (23-8)
8 Georgia Tech (23-9) vs 9 JAMES MADISON (26-6)
Fri/Sun games in Ames, IA
5 Michigan State (22-9) vs 12 MARIST (26-7)
4 Iowa State (23-7) vs 13 Illinois State (24-7)
Fri/Sun games in South Bend, IN
6 Vanderbilt (22-10) vs 11 BOWLING GREEN (27-6)
3 Notre Dame (27-5) vs 14 CLEVELAND STATE (19-13)
Fri/Sun games in Norfolk, VA
7 Virginia (21-9) vs 10 Iowa (19-13)
2 TEXAS A&M (25-7) vs 15 HAMPTON (20-11)
Top 50 RPI Teams left out:
#38 North Carolina (19-11, 5-8 in ACC)
#44 Kansas (15-15, 5-11 in Big 12)
#46 Maryland (19-12, 5-8 in ACC)
Multiple bid:
Big East (7): Conn, WV, ND, GTown, St. J, Rut, DeP
Big 12 (7): Neb, A&M, Okl, ISU, Tex, OSU, Bay
ACC (6): Duke, FSU, Va, NCSt, GaT, BC
SEC (6): Tenn, Ky, Vbilt, Ga, LSU, MSU
Big 10 (4): OSU, MSU, Iowa, Wisc
A-10 (3): Xav, Temp, Day
Pac 10 (3): Stan, UCLA, USC
AE (2): Htfd, Vt
WAC (2): FrSt, LaT
MWC (2): TCU, SDSt
MVC (2): ISU, N Iowa
One bid: 19
Schmolik
I've been doing the Schmolik 64 for a while now and always wanted to do a Schmolik 64 for the women's tournament (by the way, a true 64). Well, I've finally done it. Now I really don't know much about college basketball outside of Connecticut and only found RPI ratings from the NCAA website and the AP and USA Today ratings. Someone want to do a Paymon score on this bracket? Or better yet, how many teams I get correctly?
A few differences I found for the women's tournament. The sites are named after the cities, not the regions.There are 16 1st/2nd round sites so rather than two pods in each site, there are just one. If a school hosts a site, not only is the host school allowed to be there, I think there's an unwritten rule that they have to be there. I also think there are less strict rules on teams from the same conference being placed in the same regional and so on but I tried for the most part to split around the teams in the same conference in the bracket.
Here goes nothing:
Sat/Mon March 20-22
Sun/Tue March 21-23
Final Four is Dayton vs Kansas City and Sacramento vs Memphis
DAYTON REGIONAL - (Sun/Tue March 28-30) I can tell you this, no one wants to be in this regional for one obvious reason...
Sun/Tue games in Minneapolis, MN
1 CONNECTICUT (33-0) vs 16 AUSTIN PEAY (15-17)
8 TULANE (26-6) vs 9 Dayton (24-7)
Sat/Mon games in Louisville, KY
5 Oklahoma State (23-10) vs 12 LOUISIANA TECH (23-8)
4 Kentucky (25-7) vs 13 CHATTANOOGA (24-8)
Sat/Mon games in Tallahassee, FL
6 Baylor (23-9) vs 11 DePaul (21-11)
3 Florida State (26-5) vs 14 LIBERTY (27-5)
Sun/Tue games in Cincinnati, OH
7 Hartford (27-4) vs 10 Wisconsin (21-10)
2 XAVIER (27-3) vs 15 LAMAR (26-7)
KANSAS CITY REGIONAL (Sun/Tue March 28-30)
Sat/Mon games in Durham, NC
1 DUKE (27-5) vs 16 ST. FRANCIS (17-14)
8 Georgia (23-8) vs 9 Temple (24-8)
Sat/Mon games in Seattle, WA
5 GONZAGA (27-4) vs 12 Boston College (17-15)
4 Georgetown (25-6) vs 13 PRINCETON (26-2)
Sat/Mon games in Berkeley, CA
6 Ucla (24-8) vs 11 SAN DIEGO STATE (21-10)
3 West Virginia (28-5) vs 14 E. TENNESSEE ST (23-8)
Sat/Mon games in Tempe, AZ
7 NC State (20-13) vs 10 Usc (19-12)
2 Nebraska (30-1) vs 15 UC RIVERSIDE (17-15)
SACRAMENTO REGIONAL (Sat/Mon March 27-29)
Sat/Mon games in Palo Alto, CA
1 STANFORD (31-1) vs 16 PORTLAND STATE (18-14)
8 Lsu (20-9) vs 9 Fresno State (27-6)
Fri/Sun games in Austin, TX
5 St. John's (24-6) vs 12 Tcu (22-8)
4 Texas (22-10) vs 13 LEHIGH (29-3)
Fri/Sun games in Norman, OK
6 MIDDLE TENNESSEE (25-5) vs 11 Mississippi State (19-12)
3 Oklahoma (23-10) vs 14 NORTHERN IOWA (17-15)
Fri/Sun games in Pittsburgh, PA
7 Rutgers (19-14) vs 10 VERMONT (26-6)
2 OHIO STATE (30-4) vs 15 SOUTH DAKOTA ST (22-10)
MEMPHIS REGIONAL (Thur/Sat March 27-29)
Thur/Sat games in Knoxville, TN
1 TENNESSEE (30-2) vs 16 SOUTHERN (23-8)
8 Georgia Tech (23-9) vs 9 JAMES MADISON (26-6)
Fri/Sun games in Ames, IA
5 Michigan State (22-9) vs 12 MARIST (26-7)
4 Iowa State (23-7) vs 13 Illinois State (24-7)
Fri/Sun games in South Bend, IN
6 Vanderbilt (22-10) vs 11 BOWLING GREEN (27-6)
3 Notre Dame (27-5) vs 14 CLEVELAND STATE (19-13)
Fri/Sun games in Norfolk, VA
7 Virginia (21-9) vs 10 Iowa (19-13)
2 TEXAS A&M (25-7) vs 15 HAMPTON (20-11)
Top 50 RPI Teams left out:
#38 North Carolina (19-11, 5-8 in ACC)
#44 Kansas (15-15, 5-11 in Big 12)
#46 Maryland (19-12, 5-8 in ACC)
Multiple bid:
Big East (7): Conn, WV, ND, GTown, St. J, Rut, DeP
Big 12 (7): Neb, A&M, Okl, ISU, Tex, OSU, Bay
ACC (6): Duke, FSU, Va, NCSt, GaT, BC
SEC (6): Tenn, Ky, Vbilt, Ga, LSU, MSU
Big 10 (4): OSU, MSU, Iowa, Wisc
A-10 (3): Xav, Temp, Day
Pac 10 (3): Stan, UCLA, USC
AE (2): Htfd, Vt
WAC (2): FrSt, LaT
MWC (2): TCU, SDSt
MVC (2): ISU, N Iowa
One bid: 19
Schmolik
Comments on NCAA Bracket and Other Brackets
Hello, college basketball fans!
Time to compare my bracket to the NCAA's and to other brackets across the web. Thank you to the Bracket Project (http://bracketproject.blogspot.com/) for compiling all the results in the Bracket Matrix.
As upset as I am that my Illini aren't in (for two reasons, one because I graduated from there and two if they had gotten in I would've been perfect for the first time in 17 years), I knew they were a very questionable pick and I can't tell you for sure Illinois is a better team than Florida. We beat Michigan State, but so did they. We beat Vanderbilt, they beat Tennessee. Florida's RPI was by far better and their conference RPI was better (it was amazing Illinois was even in the discussion with their RPI in the 70's). Florida had fewer bad losses although they did lose at home to South Alabama, who wasn't even in the top 200 RPI. The Sportsline polls favored Illinois over Florida, even with the names removed (blind resumes). I think there were 64 clear cut picks (including Minnesota) and a lot of candidates for the last spot. I think if I were Mississippi State, I'd be a little ticked off that Florida did get in ahead of MSU. Florida and Mississippi State were both 9-7 in the SEC and split two games but Florida won at Florida and Mississippi State won in the SEC tournament (and followed that up with a victory over Vanderbilt and then were less than a second away from beating Kentucky). Then again, Florida of course played in the much tougher SEC East and MSU got a bye instead of Florida in the SEC tournament. Had MSU played and Florida had a bye, maybe Florida wins the game. I was rooting hard for Kentucky to win that game thinking maybe Illinois would get in. I give credit to Kentucky for actually playing hard in what was probably a meaningless game for them (especially trying to force overtime by intentionally missing the last free throw and getting the rebound). It seemed more like an NFL team locked in position (I doubt they would've passed Kansas for #1 overall). I almost wonder if UTEP, Cal, and Utah State weren't playing with the same effort trying to help their leagues get two bids instead of one (of course it turned out UTEP and Utah State might have cost themselves a bid). The question that will never be answered probably was had Mississippi State won, who would be out? From what I was saying all along, it should have been Florida that would be out. But Florida received a 10 seed so it in theory would've been one of the at large 12 seeds (UTEP or Utah State). I wouldn't have been happy to see that happen (or even if Illinois were in and one of UTEP and Utah State lost).
As for Virginia Tech, usually I agree not to take a team behind in standings (then again, Virginia Tech had by far the worst ACC schedule, playing all five of the bottom five teams twice and all six of the ACC NCAA teams just once) and do agree with the fact that Virginia Tech beat both Wake Forest and Georgia Tech (in Atlanta). But then look at their non conference schedule. It wasn't bad, it was awful. Their RPI was way behind the others. Maybe if Georgia Tech had lost to Maryland, Georgia Tech probably doesn't get in. But the Jackets made it to the final and it would be hard to leave them out after that. The Hokies were in my opinion hurt by Championship Week, losing to #12 seed Miami and not only by party crashers but other bubble teams like Minnesota and Mississippi State, who were longshots when the week started.
I spent Saturday at the Atlantic 10 tournament in Atlantic City. They had a "Fan Zone" which had TV's that I watched from time to time after the Temple game was over. While I liked that Temple won (I have a graduate degree from Temple), Saturday couldn't have been worse for Illinois. First, Houston won, stealing an at large bid from Illinois. Then Illinois went double OT vs Ohio State and wound up losing. Then Mississippi State and Minnesota both won. The more you think about it, Minnesota should've been in over Illinois had they both lost on Saturday but I knew Minnesota would get in first after they stomped over Purdue. And finally New Mexico State won. Houston and New Mexico State seemed like the only true "party crashers" but when Illinois is a bubble team it seemed like there was more. You can argue Washington and St. Mary's might have been bubble teams if they hadn't won but they clearly each had a case to make the field. Oh well, this will be Illinois's first NIT bid since 1996 (Lou Henson's last year and just after I graduated). And they are a #1 seed, which still sounds cool. Maybe we can win it. Then again, Penn State won last year's NIT and they were awful this year. Penn State, Iowa, and Indiana being so horrible probably in part contributed to our poor RPI (and all of the Big 10's, Ohio State's and Michigan State's weren't even in the top 25 as of Sunday morning).
According to the brackets in the Bracket Matrix, there were 83 brackets. Minnesota was on 69 of the brackets and were the second last in. Forget the talk about expansion, maybe it's time to go back to 64 teams. Last year, there were 64 mostly consensus picks and the last one was the one that there was a huge difference of opinion. This year was the same.
Mississippi State - 32 brackets
Virginia Tech - 30 brackets
Illinois - 27 brackets
Florida -19 brackets
Could you imagine the discussion about the last pick? Remember Mississippi State played in the SEC final and it went overtime. That would leave us less than three hours to choose the last team. Of course, leave it to the NCAA to choose clearly the 4th choice and to put them as a 10 seed. Then again, they did improve over last year when Arizona was chosen on just 8 brackets yet made the NCAA's.
As for the seedings, I had West Virginia over Duke although the majority of the brackets had Duke as the last #1. My unofficial count was 53 for Duke and 30 for West Virginia. Seeing Duke get the third #1 was interesting although I think it's a non issue if you think about it. Would playing Kansas or Kentucky in the semifinals make much of a difference? And while Salt Lake City is a long trip for Syracuse, Houston would be as well.
I had Georgetown over Villanova for the final 2 seed with their run to the conference final. The committee had Villanova. Georgetown was the last #2 according to the Matrix. I had clearly underrated Villanova (had them as a #4 seed). The Matrix had Villanova, New Mexico, Temple, and Baylor (although Baylor's average seed was closer to 4 than 3) as the four 3 seeds (I had Purdue and Pitt as 3's instead of Villanova and Baylor). The Matrix's #4's were Purdue, Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, and Tennessee). The only change I had from the matrix's Sweet 16 was I had Michigan State instead of Tennessee (the NCAA's had Vanderbilt and Maryland instead of Temple (who the Matrix had as a 3) and Tennessee (the NCAA made them a 6). I was very surprised and disappointed Temple was a 5 seed although in theory 4's and 5's aren't usually much different.
Compared to the matrix, my overseeded and underseeded (more than one seed off):
Marquette (I had them as an 11, matrix had them an 8)
UNLV (I had them as a 12, matrix had them a 9)
San Diego State (I had them as a 7, matrix had them a 9)
Old Dominion (I had them as an 8, matrix had them a 10)
NCAA vs Matrix (unlike other people, instead of assuming the NCAA is right, I assume the Matrix is right - 83 outnumbers 10 you know)
Marquette (NCAA had them a 6, matrix had them an 8)
Notre Dame (NCAA had them a 6, matrix had them an 8)
Wake Forest (NCAA had them a 9, matrix had them an 11)
Temple (NCAA had them a 5, matrix had them a 3)
Northern Iowa (NCAA had them a 9, matrix had them a 7)
San Diego State (NCAA had them an 11, matrix had them a 9)
Ironically, Marquette and San Diego State were on both lists. I don't like that the overseeded and underseeded lists for the NCAA's seem to follow a pattern of BCS conferences being overseeded and other conferences being underseeded. I was actually shocked at Marquette's 6. After the East bracket was listed and they said Notre Dame was still waiting, I went down who was still left and found Notre Dame, Villanova, and Louisville hadn't been chosen. I was thinking that one of them had been left out since had they put 8 teams in they would likely spread them 2 in each conference. Well, the South had 3 Big East teams instead. The Big East was loaded with not only 8 bids but 7 teams seeded 6 or higher and 5 teams seeded 3 or higher. This is why the teams aren't more spread out. The seeds were 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 6, 6, and 9. You had to put two of the top 5 together and it makes more sense to put a 3 with a 1 than a 2 (2 and 3 meet in the Sweet 16). With 6 teams in bottom half seeds, you had to force two pairs teams to meet in the Sweet 16). I read somewhere the committee tried to pair teams that met once (Villanova and Notre Dame and West Virginia and Marquette). By contrast, Villanova and Marquette met twice in the regular season and also in the tournament). They could've moved Marquette and Notre Dame up to 5's I guess. Or down to 8's (where they probably should've been).
You can either place the top four seeds in the region with regard to S-Curve or with regard to geography. I tended to to it by geography this year and the NCAA seemed to do so as well (except for moving New Mexico to the East). Did the committee do West Virginia a favor keeping them in the East with Kentucky rather than pair the Mountaineers with Duke (assuming West Virginia was the #5 on the S-Curve, they would never pair Syracuse and West Virginia 1-2 in the same region). Or they could have put Duke in the East and Kentucky in the South. I think having the worst #1 and worst #2 in the same bracket seemed unfair. Baylor also seems like a weak #3 but then again they may be playing in Houston. I have to think that the Midwest was the hardest with Kansas, Ohio State, Georgetown, Maryland, Michigan State, and Tennessee as the top 6, which is ironic considering Kansas is the overall #1. Another thing that surprised me a little was Kentucky assigned to New Orleans. The main ones I saw had the Cats in Milwaukee. It also cost Kentucky the right to host the play in winner (Kansas was disqualified since they were at a Thur/Sat site). Maybe they should've let Syracuse get the play in winner anyway since Buffalo is a lot closer to Dayton than Jacksonville is). Of course it could just be everything favoring Duke.
And my condolences to those of you sent to Spokane. Well except for Houston and New Mexico State. You should be happy you're even in the field, you can't be picky. Then again, Spokane is a step up from last year (Boise).
Tune in later this week for Schmolik Bracket Analysis! Don't pick your bracket without first looking at Schmolik Bracket Analysis!
Schmolik
Time to compare my bracket to the NCAA's and to other brackets across the web. Thank you to the Bracket Project (http://bracketproject.blogspot.com/) for compiling all the results in the Bracket Matrix.
As upset as I am that my Illini aren't in (for two reasons, one because I graduated from there and two if they had gotten in I would've been perfect for the first time in 17 years), I knew they were a very questionable pick and I can't tell you for sure Illinois is a better team than Florida. We beat Michigan State, but so did they. We beat Vanderbilt, they beat Tennessee. Florida's RPI was by far better and their conference RPI was better (it was amazing Illinois was even in the discussion with their RPI in the 70's). Florida had fewer bad losses although they did lose at home to South Alabama, who wasn't even in the top 200 RPI. The Sportsline polls favored Illinois over Florida, even with the names removed (blind resumes). I think there were 64 clear cut picks (including Minnesota) and a lot of candidates for the last spot. I think if I were Mississippi State, I'd be a little ticked off that Florida did get in ahead of MSU. Florida and Mississippi State were both 9-7 in the SEC and split two games but Florida won at Florida and Mississippi State won in the SEC tournament (and followed that up with a victory over Vanderbilt and then were less than a second away from beating Kentucky). Then again, Florida of course played in the much tougher SEC East and MSU got a bye instead of Florida in the SEC tournament. Had MSU played and Florida had a bye, maybe Florida wins the game. I was rooting hard for Kentucky to win that game thinking maybe Illinois would get in. I give credit to Kentucky for actually playing hard in what was probably a meaningless game for them (especially trying to force overtime by intentionally missing the last free throw and getting the rebound). It seemed more like an NFL team locked in position (I doubt they would've passed Kansas for #1 overall). I almost wonder if UTEP, Cal, and Utah State weren't playing with the same effort trying to help their leagues get two bids instead of one (of course it turned out UTEP and Utah State might have cost themselves a bid). The question that will never be answered probably was had Mississippi State won, who would be out? From what I was saying all along, it should have been Florida that would be out. But Florida received a 10 seed so it in theory would've been one of the at large 12 seeds (UTEP or Utah State). I wouldn't have been happy to see that happen (or even if Illinois were in and one of UTEP and Utah State lost).
As for Virginia Tech, usually I agree not to take a team behind in standings (then again, Virginia Tech had by far the worst ACC schedule, playing all five of the bottom five teams twice and all six of the ACC NCAA teams just once) and do agree with the fact that Virginia Tech beat both Wake Forest and Georgia Tech (in Atlanta). But then look at their non conference schedule. It wasn't bad, it was awful. Their RPI was way behind the others. Maybe if Georgia Tech had lost to Maryland, Georgia Tech probably doesn't get in. But the Jackets made it to the final and it would be hard to leave them out after that. The Hokies were in my opinion hurt by Championship Week, losing to #12 seed Miami and not only by party crashers but other bubble teams like Minnesota and Mississippi State, who were longshots when the week started.
I spent Saturday at the Atlantic 10 tournament in Atlantic City. They had a "Fan Zone" which had TV's that I watched from time to time after the Temple game was over. While I liked that Temple won (I have a graduate degree from Temple), Saturday couldn't have been worse for Illinois. First, Houston won, stealing an at large bid from Illinois. Then Illinois went double OT vs Ohio State and wound up losing. Then Mississippi State and Minnesota both won. The more you think about it, Minnesota should've been in over Illinois had they both lost on Saturday but I knew Minnesota would get in first after they stomped over Purdue. And finally New Mexico State won. Houston and New Mexico State seemed like the only true "party crashers" but when Illinois is a bubble team it seemed like there was more. You can argue Washington and St. Mary's might have been bubble teams if they hadn't won but they clearly each had a case to make the field. Oh well, this will be Illinois's first NIT bid since 1996 (Lou Henson's last year and just after I graduated). And they are a #1 seed, which still sounds cool. Maybe we can win it. Then again, Penn State won last year's NIT and they were awful this year. Penn State, Iowa, and Indiana being so horrible probably in part contributed to our poor RPI (and all of the Big 10's, Ohio State's and Michigan State's weren't even in the top 25 as of Sunday morning).
According to the brackets in the Bracket Matrix, there were 83 brackets. Minnesota was on 69 of the brackets and were the second last in. Forget the talk about expansion, maybe it's time to go back to 64 teams. Last year, there were 64 mostly consensus picks and the last one was the one that there was a huge difference of opinion. This year was the same.
Mississippi State - 32 brackets
Virginia Tech - 30 brackets
Illinois - 27 brackets
Florida -19 brackets
Could you imagine the discussion about the last pick? Remember Mississippi State played in the SEC final and it went overtime. That would leave us less than three hours to choose the last team. Of course, leave it to the NCAA to choose clearly the 4th choice and to put them as a 10 seed. Then again, they did improve over last year when Arizona was chosen on just 8 brackets yet made the NCAA's.
As for the seedings, I had West Virginia over Duke although the majority of the brackets had Duke as the last #1. My unofficial count was 53 for Duke and 30 for West Virginia. Seeing Duke get the third #1 was interesting although I think it's a non issue if you think about it. Would playing Kansas or Kentucky in the semifinals make much of a difference? And while Salt Lake City is a long trip for Syracuse, Houston would be as well.
I had Georgetown over Villanova for the final 2 seed with their run to the conference final. The committee had Villanova. Georgetown was the last #2 according to the Matrix. I had clearly underrated Villanova (had them as a #4 seed). The Matrix had Villanova, New Mexico, Temple, and Baylor (although Baylor's average seed was closer to 4 than 3) as the four 3 seeds (I had Purdue and Pitt as 3's instead of Villanova and Baylor). The Matrix's #4's were Purdue, Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, and Tennessee). The only change I had from the matrix's Sweet 16 was I had Michigan State instead of Tennessee (the NCAA's had Vanderbilt and Maryland instead of Temple (who the Matrix had as a 3) and Tennessee (the NCAA made them a 6). I was very surprised and disappointed Temple was a 5 seed although in theory 4's and 5's aren't usually much different.
Compared to the matrix, my overseeded and underseeded (more than one seed off):
Marquette (I had them as an 11, matrix had them an 8)
UNLV (I had them as a 12, matrix had them a 9)
San Diego State (I had them as a 7, matrix had them a 9)
Old Dominion (I had them as an 8, matrix had them a 10)
NCAA vs Matrix (unlike other people, instead of assuming the NCAA is right, I assume the Matrix is right - 83 outnumbers 10 you know)
Marquette (NCAA had them a 6, matrix had them an 8)
Notre Dame (NCAA had them a 6, matrix had them an 8)
Wake Forest (NCAA had them a 9, matrix had them an 11)
Temple (NCAA had them a 5, matrix had them a 3)
Northern Iowa (NCAA had them a 9, matrix had them a 7)
San Diego State (NCAA had them an 11, matrix had them a 9)
Ironically, Marquette and San Diego State were on both lists. I don't like that the overseeded and underseeded lists for the NCAA's seem to follow a pattern of BCS conferences being overseeded and other conferences being underseeded. I was actually shocked at Marquette's 6. After the East bracket was listed and they said Notre Dame was still waiting, I went down who was still left and found Notre Dame, Villanova, and Louisville hadn't been chosen. I was thinking that one of them had been left out since had they put 8 teams in they would likely spread them 2 in each conference. Well, the South had 3 Big East teams instead. The Big East was loaded with not only 8 bids but 7 teams seeded 6 or higher and 5 teams seeded 3 or higher. This is why the teams aren't more spread out. The seeds were 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 6, 6, and 9. You had to put two of the top 5 together and it makes more sense to put a 3 with a 1 than a 2 (2 and 3 meet in the Sweet 16). With 6 teams in bottom half seeds, you had to force two pairs teams to meet in the Sweet 16). I read somewhere the committee tried to pair teams that met once (Villanova and Notre Dame and West Virginia and Marquette). By contrast, Villanova and Marquette met twice in the regular season and also in the tournament). They could've moved Marquette and Notre Dame up to 5's I guess. Or down to 8's (where they probably should've been).
You can either place the top four seeds in the region with regard to S-Curve or with regard to geography. I tended to to it by geography this year and the NCAA seemed to do so as well (except for moving New Mexico to the East). Did the committee do West Virginia a favor keeping them in the East with Kentucky rather than pair the Mountaineers with Duke (assuming West Virginia was the #5 on the S-Curve, they would never pair Syracuse and West Virginia 1-2 in the same region). Or they could have put Duke in the East and Kentucky in the South. I think having the worst #1 and worst #2 in the same bracket seemed unfair. Baylor also seems like a weak #3 but then again they may be playing in Houston. I have to think that the Midwest was the hardest with Kansas, Ohio State, Georgetown, Maryland, Michigan State, and Tennessee as the top 6, which is ironic considering Kansas is the overall #1. Another thing that surprised me a little was Kentucky assigned to New Orleans. The main ones I saw had the Cats in Milwaukee. It also cost Kentucky the right to host the play in winner (Kansas was disqualified since they were at a Thur/Sat site). Maybe they should've let Syracuse get the play in winner anyway since Buffalo is a lot closer to Dayton than Jacksonville is). Of course it could just be everything favoring Duke.
And my condolences to those of you sent to Spokane. Well except for Houston and New Mexico State. You should be happy you're even in the field, you can't be picky. Then again, Spokane is a step up from last year (Boise).
Tune in later this week for Schmolik Bracket Analysis! Don't pick your bracket without first looking at Schmolik Bracket Analysis!
Schmolik
Sunday, March 14, 2010
Final 2010 Schmolik 64 Comments
Hello, college basketball fans!
My final Schmolik 64 is complete. Here's my rationale behind my picks.
West Virginia got the last #1 seed over Duke. Winning the Big East tournament was in my opinion bigger than winning the ACC tournament. In addition, West Virginia also has wins over Villanova (at Villanova), Georgetown, and Pittsburgh. Similar logic holds as Georgetown is my last #2 seed over New Mexico. Despite their rough stretch, they won 6 games over teams in the top 15 RPI.
On the end, it came down to Illinois, Mississippi State, Rhode Island, Virginia Tech, and Florida. I'm sure most people have cried favoritism but I posted two polls on CBS Sports.com comparing the last few bubble teams. Illinois won both polls, one with the names and one with "blind resumes". Illinois was chosen despite having by far the highest RPI of the five teams. So technically I didn't pick Illinois, the fans at CBS Sports did. If the committee continues to go with "quality wins" as a big deciding factor, Illinois has three wins over top 25 teams, more than the other four teams combined. They also have the most top 50 wins (five). I think it's going to come down to these five for the last spot. I don't think Illinois should get in over Minnesota (Minnesota is also in).
Schmolik
My final Schmolik 64 is complete. Here's my rationale behind my picks.
West Virginia got the last #1 seed over Duke. Winning the Big East tournament was in my opinion bigger than winning the ACC tournament. In addition, West Virginia also has wins over Villanova (at Villanova), Georgetown, and Pittsburgh. Similar logic holds as Georgetown is my last #2 seed over New Mexico. Despite their rough stretch, they won 6 games over teams in the top 15 RPI.
On the end, it came down to Illinois, Mississippi State, Rhode Island, Virginia Tech, and Florida. I'm sure most people have cried favoritism but I posted two polls on CBS Sports.com comparing the last few bubble teams. Illinois won both polls, one with the names and one with "blind resumes". Illinois was chosen despite having by far the highest RPI of the five teams. So technically I didn't pick Illinois, the fans at CBS Sports did. If the committee continues to go with "quality wins" as a big deciding factor, Illinois has three wins over top 25 teams, more than the other four teams combined. They also have the most top 50 wins (five). I think it's going to come down to these five for the last spot. I don't think Illinois should get in over Minnesota (Minnesota is also in).
Schmolik
Final 2010 Schmolik 64
2010 Schmolik 64
Hello, college basketball fans!
Welcome to the Final 2010 Schmolik 64!
Regional matchups in the Final Four are Midwest vs West and East vs South
Automatic bids in CAPS
MIDWEST REGIONAL (St. Louis, MO Fri/Sun March 26-28)
Oklahoma City, OK (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
1 KANSAS (32-2) vs 16 WINTHROP (17-13)
8 Gonzaga (25-8) vs 9 WASHINGTON (24-9)
San Jose, CA (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
5 Richmond (26-7) vs 12 Unlv (24-8)
4 Villanova (24-7) vs 13 MURRAY STATE (28-4)
Jacksonville, FL (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
6 Maryland (22-8) vs 11 SIENA (27-6)
3 Pittsburgh (24-8) vs 14 UC SANTA BARBARA (19-9)
Milwaukee, WI (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
7 SAN DIEGO STATE (23-8) vs 10 Utah State (26-7)
2 OHIO STATE (27-7) vs 15 HOUSTON (18-15)
WEST REGIONAL (Salt Lake City, UT Thur/Sat March 25-27)
Buffalo, NY (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
1 WEST VIRGINIA (27-6) vs 16 VERMONT (25-9)
8 Georgia Tech (21-12) vs 9 Missouri (22-10)
New Orleans, LA (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
5 Vanderbilt (23-8) vs 12 Texas El Paso (26-6)
4 Michigan State (24-8) vs 13 CORNELL (25-4)
San Jose, CA (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
6 Xavier (24-8) vs 11 Louisville (20-12)
3 New Mexico (29-4) vs 14 MONTANA (20-9)
Oklahoma City, OK (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
7 NORTHERN IOWA (28-4) vs 10 Wake Forest (19-10)
2 Kansas State (25-6) vs 15 NORTH TEXAS (22-8)
EAST REGIONAL (Syracuse, NY Thur/Sat March 25-27)
Milwaukee, WI (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
1 KENTUCKY (32-2) vs 16 Play In Winner: LEHIGH (22-10) vs ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF (17-15)
8 Clemson (21-10) vs 9 Notre Dame (23-11)
Spokane, WA (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
5 Texas A&M (22-9) vs 12 NEW MEXICO STATE (21-11)
4 Wisconsin (23-8) vs 13 OHIO (20-14)
Providence, RI (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
6 Brigham Young (28-5) vs 11 Minnesota (21-13)
3 TEMPLE (27-5) vs 14 WOFFORD (26-8)
Providence, RI (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
7 Texas (24-9) vs 10 Florida State (22-9)
2 Georgetown (23-10) vs 15 ROBERT MORRIS (23-11)
SOUTH REGIONAL (Houston, TX Fri/Sun March 26-28)
Buffalo, NY (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
1 Syracuse (28-4) vs 16 E. TENNESSEE STATE (19-14)
8 OLD DOMINION (26-8) vs 9 ST. MARY'S (25-5)
Spokane, WA (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
5 Tennessee (25-8) vs 12 Illinois (19-14)
4 Baylor (24-7) vs 13 OAKLAND (24-8)
New Orleans, LA (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
6 BUTLER (25-4) vs 11 Marquette (22-11)
3 Purdue (27-5) vs 14 SAM HOUSTON STATE (21-7)
Jacksonville, FL (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
7 Oklahoma State (22-10) vs 10 California (23-10)
2 DUKE (29-5) vs 15 MORGAN STATE (27-9)
Big East: 8
Big 12: 7
Big 10: 6
ACC: 6
MWC: 4
SEC: 3
A-10: 3
Pac 10: 2
WCC: 2
C-USA: 2
WAC: 2
One bid: 20
Last Team In: Illinois
Just Missed: Mississippi State, Virginia Tech, Rhode Island, Florida
Schmolik
Hello, college basketball fans!
Welcome to the Final 2010 Schmolik 64!
Regional matchups in the Final Four are Midwest vs West and East vs South
Automatic bids in CAPS
MIDWEST REGIONAL (St. Louis, MO Fri/Sun March 26-28)
Oklahoma City, OK (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
1 KANSAS (32-2) vs 16 WINTHROP (17-13)
8 Gonzaga (25-8) vs 9 WASHINGTON (24-9)
San Jose, CA (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
5 Richmond (26-7) vs 12 Unlv (24-8)
4 Villanova (24-7) vs 13 MURRAY STATE (28-4)
Jacksonville, FL (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
6 Maryland (22-8) vs 11 SIENA (27-6)
3 Pittsburgh (24-8) vs 14 UC SANTA BARBARA (19-9)
Milwaukee, WI (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
7 SAN DIEGO STATE (23-8) vs 10 Utah State (26-7)
2 OHIO STATE (27-7) vs 15 HOUSTON (18-15)
WEST REGIONAL (Salt Lake City, UT Thur/Sat March 25-27)
Buffalo, NY (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
1 WEST VIRGINIA (27-6) vs 16 VERMONT (25-9)
8 Georgia Tech (21-12) vs 9 Missouri (22-10)
New Orleans, LA (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
5 Vanderbilt (23-8) vs 12 Texas El Paso (26-6)
4 Michigan State (24-8) vs 13 CORNELL (25-4)
San Jose, CA (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
6 Xavier (24-8) vs 11 Louisville (20-12)
3 New Mexico (29-4) vs 14 MONTANA (20-9)
Oklahoma City, OK (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
7 NORTHERN IOWA (28-4) vs 10 Wake Forest (19-10)
2 Kansas State (25-6) vs 15 NORTH TEXAS (22-8)
EAST REGIONAL (Syracuse, NY Thur/Sat March 25-27)
Milwaukee, WI (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
1 KENTUCKY (32-2) vs 16 Play In Winner: LEHIGH (22-10) vs ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF (17-15)
8 Clemson (21-10) vs 9 Notre Dame (23-11)
Spokane, WA (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
5 Texas A&M (22-9) vs 12 NEW MEXICO STATE (21-11)
4 Wisconsin (23-8) vs 13 OHIO (20-14)
Providence, RI (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
6 Brigham Young (28-5) vs 11 Minnesota (21-13)
3 TEMPLE (27-5) vs 14 WOFFORD (26-8)
Providence, RI (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
7 Texas (24-9) vs 10 Florida State (22-9)
2 Georgetown (23-10) vs 15 ROBERT MORRIS (23-11)
SOUTH REGIONAL (Houston, TX Fri/Sun March 26-28)
Buffalo, NY (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
1 Syracuse (28-4) vs 16 E. TENNESSEE STATE (19-14)
8 OLD DOMINION (26-8) vs 9 ST. MARY'S (25-5)
Spokane, WA (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
5 Tennessee (25-8) vs 12 Illinois (19-14)
4 Baylor (24-7) vs 13 OAKLAND (24-8)
New Orleans, LA (Thur/Sat March 18-20)
6 BUTLER (25-4) vs 11 Marquette (22-11)
3 Purdue (27-5) vs 14 SAM HOUSTON STATE (21-7)
Jacksonville, FL (Fri/Sun March 19-21)
7 Oklahoma State (22-10) vs 10 California (23-10)
2 DUKE (29-5) vs 15 MORGAN STATE (27-9)
Big East: 8
Big 12: 7
Big 10: 6
ACC: 6
MWC: 4
SEC: 3
A-10: 3
Pac 10: 2
WCC: 2
C-USA: 2
WAC: 2
One bid: 20
Last Team In: Illinois
Just Missed: Mississippi State, Virginia Tech, Rhode Island, Florida
Schmolik
Final Schmolik Bubble Watch (3/14/10)
Schmolik Bubble Watch
Hello, college basketball fans!
Updated: March 14, 2010
It's time for Schmolik's Bubble Watch. For many teams, this is a make or break week. Bubble Watch analyzes who is on the bubble and their chances of making the NCAA's.
First, teams that I feel are locks for the tournament. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind during the week. Automatic Bids not included. (* Still alive for automatic bid).
ACC: Duke*, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech*
A-10: Temple*, Xavier, Richmond*
Big East: Syracuse, West Virginia*, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown*, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame
Big 10: Ohio State*, Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Minnesota*
Big 12: Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri
C-USA: Texas El Paso
MWC: New Mexico, Brigham Young, UNLV*, San Diego State*
Pac 10: California
SEC: Kentucky*, Vanderbilt, Tennessee,
WAC: Utah State*
WCC: Gonzaga
Bubble Teams Still Alive for Automatic Bid
SEC: Mississippi State
Total # Locks: 34
Minimum # At Large Locks: 33
Automatic Bids: 31
Remaining Bids: 1
As of Now: 5 teams in contention. If Mississippi State wins, they are the one.
RPI Data courtesy of CBSSports.com as of March 14, 2010 morning.
RPI/ Conf or Non Conf RPI: Good RPI is 30's or higher, marginal is 40's, poor is 50's or below.
*Last 10 games: 7-3 or better is a strength, 5-5 or lower a weakness.
SOS/Non Conf SOS: Good is top 20, bad is below 100.
Top 25 games: Strength: Two or more, Weakness: Zero
Top 50 games: Strength: Four or more, Weakness: One or fewer
Bad losses: Weakness: Home losses to teams below 100 in RPI, Loss to teams below 200 in RPI
* CBSSports.com lists “Last 10” in their RPI data. Although the last 10 games or last 12 games has been removed as an official criteria, the official bracket procedures state “chronological results” are considered so a poor or strong finish may still matter.
Bubble Teams (In/Out as of Last Schmolik 64 Update)
ACC
Virginia Tech (In)
Strengths: Conference RPI (40)
Weaknesses: RPI (59), Non Conf RPI (98), Non Conf SOS (339!), no Top 25 wins
Tournament Result: Lost ACC 1st round game to Miami (seeded 12th in conference).
Atlantic 10
Rhode Island (Out)
Strengths: RPI (40), Conf RPI (5!)
Weaknesses: Conf RPI (81), 4-6 in last 10 games, no top 25 wins, only one top 50 win
Tournament Result: Lost A-10 SF game to Temple
Outlook:
Big 10
Illinois (Out)
Strengths: Three Top 25 wins (Vanderbilt, at Wisconsin, vs Wisconsin in Big 10 tournament), Five Top 50 wins
Weaknesses: RPI (74), Non Conf RPI (124), Non Conf SOS (111), 4-6 in last 10 games, Bubble Loss: Home to Minnesota
Tournament Result: Lost Big 10 SF game to Ohio State (double OT)
Outlook:
SEC
Florida (In)
Strengths: Conference RPI (37), Bubble Wins (Mississippi State),
Weaknesses: RPI (56), Non Conf RPI (78), Non Conf SOS (110), 4-6 in last 10 games, Bubble Loss (vs Mississippi State in SEC Tournament), Bad Loss: Home vs South Alabama
Tournament Update: Lost to Mississippi State in the SEC SF.
Mississippi State (Out)
Strengths: Bubble Wins: vs Florida in SEC Tournament, Sweep over Mississippi
Weaknesses: RPI (54), Non Conf RPI (69), Non Conf SOS (208), Bubble loss: at Florida, Bad Loss: Home vs Rider
Should Be In If: Only way to be 100% sure is to win
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses
Schmolik
Hello, college basketball fans!
Updated: March 14, 2010
It's time for Schmolik's Bubble Watch. For many teams, this is a make or break week. Bubble Watch analyzes who is on the bubble and their chances of making the NCAA's.
First, teams that I feel are locks for the tournament. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind during the week. Automatic Bids not included. (* Still alive for automatic bid).
ACC: Duke*, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech*
A-10: Temple*, Xavier, Richmond*
Big East: Syracuse, West Virginia*, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown*, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame
Big 10: Ohio State*, Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Minnesota*
Big 12: Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri
C-USA: Texas El Paso
MWC: New Mexico, Brigham Young, UNLV*, San Diego State*
Pac 10: California
SEC: Kentucky*, Vanderbilt, Tennessee,
WAC: Utah State*
WCC: Gonzaga
Bubble Teams Still Alive for Automatic Bid
SEC: Mississippi State
Total # Locks: 34
Minimum # At Large Locks: 33
Automatic Bids: 31
Remaining Bids: 1
As of Now: 5 teams in contention. If Mississippi State wins, they are the one.
RPI Data courtesy of CBSSports.com as of March 14, 2010 morning.
RPI/ Conf or Non Conf RPI: Good RPI is 30's or higher, marginal is 40's, poor is 50's or below.
*Last 10 games: 7-3 or better is a strength, 5-5 or lower a weakness.
SOS/Non Conf SOS: Good is top 20, bad is below 100.
Top 25 games: Strength: Two or more, Weakness: Zero
Top 50 games: Strength: Four or more, Weakness: One or fewer
Bad losses: Weakness: Home losses to teams below 100 in RPI, Loss to teams below 200 in RPI
* CBSSports.com lists “Last 10” in their RPI data. Although the last 10 games or last 12 games has been removed as an official criteria, the official bracket procedures state “chronological results” are considered so a poor or strong finish may still matter.
Bubble Teams (In/Out as of Last Schmolik 64 Update)
ACC
Virginia Tech (In)
Strengths: Conference RPI (40)
Weaknesses: RPI (59), Non Conf RPI (98), Non Conf SOS (339!), no Top 25 wins
Tournament Result: Lost ACC 1st round game to Miami (seeded 12th in conference).
Atlantic 10
Rhode Island (Out)
Strengths: RPI (40), Conf RPI (5!)
Weaknesses: Conf RPI (81), 4-6 in last 10 games, no top 25 wins, only one top 50 win
Tournament Result: Lost A-10 SF game to Temple
Outlook:
Big 10
Illinois (Out)
Strengths: Three Top 25 wins (Vanderbilt, at Wisconsin, vs Wisconsin in Big 10 tournament), Five Top 50 wins
Weaknesses: RPI (74), Non Conf RPI (124), Non Conf SOS (111), 4-6 in last 10 games, Bubble Loss: Home to Minnesota
Tournament Result: Lost Big 10 SF game to Ohio State (double OT)
Outlook:
SEC
Florida (In)
Strengths: Conference RPI (37), Bubble Wins (Mississippi State),
Weaknesses: RPI (56), Non Conf RPI (78), Non Conf SOS (110), 4-6 in last 10 games, Bubble Loss (vs Mississippi State in SEC Tournament), Bad Loss: Home vs South Alabama
Tournament Update: Lost to Mississippi State in the SEC SF.
Mississippi State (Out)
Strengths: Bubble Wins: vs Florida in SEC Tournament, Sweep over Mississippi
Weaknesses: RPI (54), Non Conf RPI (69), Non Conf SOS (208), Bubble loss: at Florida, Bad Loss: Home vs Rider
Should Be In If: Only way to be 100% sure is to win
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses
Schmolik
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