Schmolik Bubble Watch
Hello, college basketball fans!
Updated: March 14, 2010
It's time for Schmolik's Bubble Watch. For many teams, this is a make or break week. Bubble Watch analyzes who is on the bubble and their chances of making the NCAA's.
First, teams that I feel are locks for the tournament. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind during the week. Automatic Bids not included. (* Still alive for automatic bid).
ACC: Duke*, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech*
A-10: Temple*, Xavier, Richmond*
Big East: Syracuse, West Virginia*, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Georgetown*, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame
Big 10: Ohio State*, Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Minnesota*
Big 12: Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri
C-USA: Texas El Paso
MWC: New Mexico, Brigham Young, UNLV*, San Diego State*
Pac 10: California
SEC: Kentucky*, Vanderbilt, Tennessee,
WAC: Utah State*
Bubble Teams Still Alive for Automatic Bid
SEC: Mississippi State
Total # Locks: 34
Minimum # At Large Locks: 33
Automatic Bids: 31
Remaining Bids: 1
As of Now: 5 teams in contention. If Mississippi State wins, they are the one.
RPI Data courtesy of CBSSports.com as of March 14, 2010 morning.
RPI/ Conf or Non Conf RPI: Good RPI is 30's or higher, marginal is 40's, poor is 50's or below.
*Last 10 games: 7-3 or better is a strength, 5-5 or lower a weakness.
SOS/Non Conf SOS: Good is top 20, bad is below 100.
Top 25 games: Strength: Two or more, Weakness: Zero
Top 50 games: Strength: Four or more, Weakness: One or fewer
Bad losses: Weakness: Home losses to teams below 100 in RPI, Loss to teams below 200 in RPI
* CBSSports.com lists “Last 10” in their RPI data. Although the last 10 games or last 12 games has been removed as an official criteria, the official bracket procedures state “chronological results” are considered so a poor or strong finish may still matter.
Bubble Teams (In/Out as of Last Schmolik 64 Update)
Virginia Tech (In)
Strengths: Conference RPI (40)
Weaknesses: RPI (59), Non Conf RPI (98), Non Conf SOS (339!), no Top 25 wins
Tournament Result: Lost ACC 1st round game to Miami (seeded 12th in conference).
Rhode Island (Out)
Strengths: RPI (40), Conf RPI (5!)
Weaknesses: Conf RPI (81), 4-6 in last 10 games, no top 25 wins, only one top 50 win
Tournament Result: Lost A-10 SF game to Temple
Strengths: Three Top 25 wins (Vanderbilt, at Wisconsin, vs Wisconsin in Big 10 tournament), Five Top 50 wins
Weaknesses: RPI (74), Non Conf RPI (124), Non Conf SOS (111), 4-6 in last 10 games, Bubble Loss: Home to Minnesota
Tournament Result: Lost Big 10 SF game to Ohio State (double OT)
Strengths: Conference RPI (37), Bubble Wins (Mississippi State),
Weaknesses: RPI (56), Non Conf RPI (78), Non Conf SOS (110), 4-6 in last 10 games, Bubble Loss (vs Mississippi State in SEC Tournament), Bad Loss: Home vs South Alabama
Tournament Update: Lost to Mississippi State in the SEC SF.
Mississippi State (Out)
Strengths: Bubble Wins: vs Florida in SEC Tournament, Sweep over Mississippi
Weaknesses: RPI (54), Non Conf RPI (69), Non Conf SOS (208), Bubble loss: at Florida, Bad Loss: Home vs Rider
Should Be In If: Only way to be 100% sure is to win
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses