Schmolik Bubble Watch (3/11/15)

Hello, college basketball fans!

Welcome to this season's first Bubble Watch.

These are the teams I feel should be in the field at this time even if they lose their first game:

AAC: SMU, Cin
ACC: Duke, Va, ND, Lville, UNC
Big 12: Kan, ISU, Okl, Bay, WV, OkSt
Big East: Vill, GTown, Butl, Prov, St. J, Xav
Big Ten: Wisc, Md, MSU, Iowa, OSU
MVC: Wich St
Pac 12: Ariz, Utah, Ore
SEC: Ky, Ark

Total: 30
Automatic Bids: 24 (Including Gonz, N Iowa)

Remaining: 14

Oklahoma State and Xavier have byes to the QF and play likely NCAA tournament teams in their first game. So even if they lose, the teams should still be in. Oregon plays Oregon State or Colorado. While neither would be a good loss, neither would be so bad that it would kill Oregon's RPI,

RPI's courtesy of CBS Sports, accurate as of March 11.

Bubble:

AAC:
Temple:

Should be in if: Advances to SF
Should be on the bubble if: Loses to Memphis in QF

Tulsa

Should be in if: Advances to F
Should be on the bubble if: Loses in SF (assuming they don't lose to South Florida)
Should be out if: Loses to Tulane/Houston in QF

Temple's resume is higher but Tulsa has the head to head sweep. Ironically Tulsa may want Temple to make the field to help their cause. If Temple doesn't make the field, Tulsa probably doesn't either.

ACC:
NC State

Should be in if: Advances to QF
Should be on the bubble if: Loses to Pittsburgh in 1st Round

Miami

Should be in if: Advances to F
Should be on the bubble if: Advances to SF
Should be out if: Loses to Virginia Tech in 1st Round or Notre Dame in QF

NC State has a solid profile with wins over Duke, at Louisville, and at North Carolina. Pittsburgh is a decent opponent that won't kill their RPI and they should still be in decent shape if they lose.

The win over Notre Dame would make things close for Miami. NC State beat Miami so if NC State loses to Pitsburgh, it might be enough to get Miami in if they beat Notre Dame,


A-10:

VCU

Should be in if: Advances to QF
Should be on the bubble if: Loses to Fordham/George Mason in 1st Round

Davidson

Should be in if: Advances to SF
Should be on the bubble if: Loses to Massachusetts/LaSalle in QF

Dayton

Should be in if: Advances to SF
Should be on the bubble if: St. Bonaventure/St. Joseph's in QF

All three teams really deserve to be in but need to avoid the dreaded "bad loss". VCU has a high RPI but have not been the same since Briante Weber went out with an injury. Davidson can claim a regular season title to help their cause and Massachusetts is a top 100 team which might not damage Davidson's RPI that much. Dayton would be the most in danger with a loss, especially if they are the only one that loses.

Big 12:

Texas

Should be in if: Advances to SF
Should be on the bubble if: Advances to QF
Should be out if: Loses to Texas Tech in 1st Round

If there is a prototypical bubble team, it's Texas. I think the win over Iowa State should get them in, the loss to Texas Tech eliminates them, and if they make the QF, they are pretty much on the bubble all weekend and dependent on others.

Big Ten:

Purdue

Should be in if: Advances to SF
Should be on the bubble if: Loses to Iowa in QF
Should be out if: Loses to Nebraska or Penn State in QF

Indiana

Should be in if: Advances to SF
Should be on the bubble if: Advances to QF
Should be out if: Loses to Northwestern in 1st Round

Illinois

Should be in if: Advances to SF
Should be on the bubble if: Advances to QF
Should be out if: Loses to Michigan in 1st Round

The Boilers got a bye to the QF. A loss to Iowa won't hurt them but won't help them much). A loss to a Big Ten bottom feeder will probably be the nail in the coffin though,

Indiana and Illinois have similar profiles. Both have low RPI's but several good wins that could make the difference but only if they get the big wins in the QF over Wisconsin (Illinois) and/or Maryland (Indiana). Purdue swept Indiana but split with Illinois so the Boilermakers would rather see Indiana pull the upset than Illinois. If Illinois beats Wisconsin, forget three top 25 wins. Based upon the current rankings, Illinois would have three top ten wins.

Conference USA:

Old Dominion

Should be in if: Wins tournament
Should be on the bubble if: Advances to F (or loses in the SF to a quality opponent)
Should be out if: Fails to advance to F

Old Dominion currently has an RPI of 37 and has wins over VCU and LSU (although VCU's slide hurts ODU). If LSU is close to the bubble, I hope this comes up in the conversation. Louisiana Tech currently ranks 52 in the RPI. If Louisiana Tech beats ODU in the final, it may bring Louisiana Tech to the top 50 and give Old Dominion a third top 50 win (they beat La. Tech this year).

Mid American:

Buffalo

Should be in if: Wins tournament
Should be on the bubble if: Advances to F (or loses in the SF to a quality opponent)
Should be out if: Fails to advance to F

Buffalo's RPI is 30 but they don't have the quality wins Old Dominion has. If their RPI is in the high 30's, they should get consideration.

MWC:

Colorado State

Should be in if: Advances to SF
Should be on the bubble if: Loses to Fresno State in the QF

San Diego State

Should be in if: Advances to SF
Should be on the bubble if: Loses to UNLV in the QF

Boise State

Should be in if: Advances to SF
Should be out if: Loses to Air Force in the QF

Boise State tied for the MWC regular season crown and swept San Diego State, who they tied with. But their RPI is the lowest and Air Force's RPI is so low that a loss will likely sink their RPI so low it will probably wind up on the outside looking in. UNLV is the strongest of the three opponents so San Diego State probably would be hurt the least by a 1st round loss. San Diego State and Colorado State are close to the top 25 and Boise State would love either or both to make the top 25 and give 'the Broncos a top 25 win (or in San Diego State's case, two).

Pac-12:

UCLA

Should be in if: Makes F
Should be on the bubble if: Makes SF
Should be out if: Loses to USC in QF

Stanford

Should be in if: Makes F
Should be on the bubble if: Makes SF
Should be out if: Loses to Washington in the 1st Round or Utah in the QF

UCLA and Stanford are on the outside looking in (according to Schmolik) and need to make a statement in Las Vegas. UCLA likely has to beat Arizona to make the final. Stanford would need to win three games including Utah and probably Oregon.


SEC:

Georgia

Should be in if: Makes F
Should be on the bubble if: Makes SF or loses to Mississippi in QF
Should be out if: Loses to SC/Mo in QF

LSU

Should be in if: Makes SF
Should be on the bubble if: Loses to Texas A&M in QF
Should be out if: Loses to Miss State or Auburn in QF

Texas A&M

Should be in if: Makes F
Should be on the bubble if: Makes SF
Should be out if: Loses in 1st Round or QF

Mississippi

Should be in if: Makes SF
Should be on the bubble if: Loses to Georgia in QF
Should be out if: Loses to SC/Mo in 1st Round

These teams are so close to the Top 50 line so it may be better to compare their head to heads:

Georgia: Wins: Miss (H, A), Texas A&M (A), Losses: LSU (A)
LSU: Wins: Ga (H), Miss (H, A), Losses; Texas A&M (H, A)
Texas A&M: Wins: LSU (H, A), Losses: Ga (H), Miss (A)
Mississippi: Wins: Texas A&M (H), Losses: Ga (H, A), LSU (H, A)

Other good wins:
LSU: at West Virginia, at Arkansas
Mississippi: at Arkansas, at Oregon, Cincinnati (Neutral)

LSU probably has the best resume and probably can best afford a loss. Remember they also lost to Old Dominion. Texas A&M probably has the weakest resume and needs a win (and possibly two) the most. Texas A&M only has wins over LSU and if they beat them, LSU could drop out of the top 50 so A&M would have no top 50 wins (barring a shocking win over Kentucky in the SF). I would certainly rather be the two teams that make the semifinals than the two that don't.

WCC:

BYU

Result: Lost to Gonzaga in WCC final

Their RPI is reasonable. They really have only one quality top 50 win but it's a huge one, at Gonzaga, the only team to win there all season. It should be interesting. If the NCAA wants to talk about quality wins, how can you top the Gonzaga win?

It should be an interesting week!