Hello, college basketball fans!
Just went to the Bracket Matrix (http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm). I actually did better than average and better than the last 2 years. Then again, these scores assume the committee was "right" which I don't always believe is true.
My thought was the same as most other bracketologists and Dick Vitale (is agreeing with Vitale a good thing)? Arizona was a highly questionable pick. Out of 61 brackets, only 8 (EIGHT!) had Arizona in their final bracket. I think the committee choked on that one. The team chosen on the 2nd fewest brackets was Maryland at 50 out of 61. Clearly there was some feeling they didn't belong but most (including me) thought they did. Surprisingly Wisconsin was left off of 5 brackets. I thought they were a lock. Minnesota was left off 4 and Boston College 3. Dayton and Michigan were left off just one each. So the consensus was 64 of 65 picks were legit. But who was the one who got screwed? Personally I feel anyone who says "this team belongs" or "doesn't belong" should pick their own bracket. It's not that I don't think St. Mary's doesn't belong, I just don't think they were one of the top 34 at large teams. According to the Matrix, the team that got screwed by the Committee was San Diego State. Still, they were chosen by less than half (28 of 61). Creighton was chosen by 20 and St. Mary's by just 17. Penn State was chosen by 10, still more than Arizona. No other team was picked more than once. But there was no clear cut consensus on who the last team was. If we formed a committee of 61, we would spend half of the field discussion on the last team alone. Maybe they should just go to 64.
I thought maybe Memphis and UConn could go either way. It looks like more of us picked UConn (I had Memphis). I do like them in the same bracket. I thought BC at 7 was a reach. Their RPI is in the 57's. They should be happy to just be in the field. I may have gone overboard with Tennessee, making them a 5. But I was shocked to see them as a 9 seed. Remember three years ago no one but the NCAA's had Tennessee anywhere near a 2 seed and they got it. Now I didn't figure out who was on the committee (Arizona's AD maybe?) but I do know Mike Slive of the SEC was the head. Considering the SEC got just 3, I can't see any favoritism there. Tennessee were approx. a 7 seed by the bracketologists and I did see plenty of 6's.
I think it is weird that Florida State and Xavier are sent to Boise when Miami would make more sense. Utah and Arizona are sent to Miami instead. They should just switch those pods. If Arizona is the last team in, they should have to go to Boise. Honestly, it's a joke Boise even gets to host the NCAA's at all and I think they host them a lot. I always have to watch out who I send to Boise in my bracket. I personally put the last two teams to make my field there as well as Mississippi State, a party crasher. Purdue was stuck there after winning the Big 10 tournament. Had Purdue lost, I would've had to stick Illinois there!
Otherwise, pretty good job by the committee except for Arizona.
Schmolik
Monday, March 16, 2009
Sunday, March 15, 2009
Final 2009 Schmolik 64!
Hello, college basketball fans!
2009 Schmolik 64! (Note: I really don't have the computer time to spend on checking the matchups so there may be duplicate matches. Maybe later next week I can change them).
EAST (Boston Thur/Sat)
Greensboro, NC Thur/Sat
1 North Carolina vs 16 Radford*
8 BYU vs 9 Marquette
Portland, OR Thur/Sat
5 Xavier vs 12 VCU*
4 Washington vs 13 American*
Philadelphia, PA Thur/Sat
6 Illinois vs 11 Cleveland State *
3 Villanova vs 14 Binghamton *
Kansas City, MO Thur/Sat
7 Clemson vs 10 USC *
2 Missouri * vs 15 Big West Champ
WEST (Glendale, AZ Thur/Sat) - East meets West in SF
Kansas City, MO Thur/Sat
1 Memphis * vs 16 Chattanooga *
8 Butler vs 9 California
Boise, ID Fri/Sun
5 Utah * vs 12 Minnesota
4 Wake Forest vs 13 Mississippi State*
Portland, OR Thur/Sat
6 UCLA vs 11 Boston College
3 Oklahoma vs 14 Southland Champ
Philadelphia, PA Thur/Sat
7 Ohio State vs 10 Utah State*
2 Connecticut vs 15 Robert Morris*
SOUTH (Memphis, TN Fri/Sun)
Dayton, OH Fri/Sun
1 Louisville * vs 16 Morgan State *
8 Siena * vs 9 Texas A&M
Boise, ID Fri/Sun
5 Purdue * vs 12 Maryland
4 Gonzaga * vs 13 Northern Iowa *
Minneapolis, MN Fri/Sun
6 West Virginia vs 11 Michigan
3 Kansas vs 14 North Dakota State *
Greensboro, NC Thur/Sat
7 LSU vs 10 Temple *
2 Duke vs 15 Cornell *
MIDWEST (Indianapolis, IN Fri/Sun)
Dayton, OH Fri/Sun
1 Pittsburgh vs Play In - SWAC Champ * vs Morehead St *
8 Texas vs 9 Wisconsin
Miami, FL Fri/Sun
5 Tennessee vs 12 Western Kentucky *
4 Florida State vs 13 Akron *
Miami, FL Fri/Sun
6 Arizona State vs 11 Dayton
3 Syracuse vs 14 E Tennessee State *
Minneapolis, MN Fri/Sun
7 Oklahoma State vs 10 San Diego State
2 Michigan State vs 15 Portland State*
Schmolik
2009 Schmolik 64! (Note: I really don't have the computer time to spend on checking the matchups so there may be duplicate matches. Maybe later next week I can change them).
EAST (Boston Thur/Sat)
Greensboro, NC Thur/Sat
1 North Carolina vs 16 Radford*
8 BYU vs 9 Marquette
Portland, OR Thur/Sat
5 Xavier vs 12 VCU*
4 Washington vs 13 American*
Philadelphia, PA Thur/Sat
6 Illinois vs 11 Cleveland State *
3 Villanova vs 14 Binghamton *
Kansas City, MO Thur/Sat
7 Clemson vs 10 USC *
2 Missouri * vs 15 Big West Champ
WEST (Glendale, AZ Thur/Sat) - East meets West in SF
Kansas City, MO Thur/Sat
1 Memphis * vs 16 Chattanooga *
8 Butler vs 9 California
Boise, ID Fri/Sun
5 Utah * vs 12 Minnesota
4 Wake Forest vs 13 Mississippi State*
Portland, OR Thur/Sat
6 UCLA vs 11 Boston College
3 Oklahoma vs 14 Southland Champ
Philadelphia, PA Thur/Sat
7 Ohio State vs 10 Utah State*
2 Connecticut vs 15 Robert Morris*
SOUTH (Memphis, TN Fri/Sun)
Dayton, OH Fri/Sun
1 Louisville * vs 16 Morgan State *
8 Siena * vs 9 Texas A&M
Boise, ID Fri/Sun
5 Purdue * vs 12 Maryland
4 Gonzaga * vs 13 Northern Iowa *
Minneapolis, MN Fri/Sun
6 West Virginia vs 11 Michigan
3 Kansas vs 14 North Dakota State *
Greensboro, NC Thur/Sat
7 LSU vs 10 Temple *
2 Duke vs 15 Cornell *
MIDWEST (Indianapolis, IN Fri/Sun)
Dayton, OH Fri/Sun
1 Pittsburgh vs Play In - SWAC Champ * vs Morehead St *
8 Texas vs 9 Wisconsin
Miami, FL Fri/Sun
5 Tennessee vs 12 Western Kentucky *
4 Florida State vs 13 Akron *
Miami, FL Fri/Sun
6 Arizona State vs 11 Dayton
3 Syracuse vs 14 E Tennessee State *
Minneapolis, MN Fri/Sun
7 Oklahoma State vs 10 San Diego State
2 Michigan State vs 15 Portland State*
Schmolik
Friday, March 13, 2009
Schmolik Bubble Watch Fri. 3/13 1:51am
Schmolik Bubble Watch
Hello, college basketball fans!
Updated: March 13, 2009 1:51am. After SIX OT's of Connecticut and Syracuse!
It's time for Schmolik's Bubble Watch. For many teams, this is a make or break week. Bubble Watch analyzes who is on the bubble and their chances of making the NCAA's.
First, teams that I feel are locks for the tournament. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind during the week. Automatic Bids not included.
ACC: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Duke, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College
A-10: Xavier, Dayton
Big East: Louisville, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big 10: Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State
Big 12: Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Texas
C-USA: Memphis
Horizon: Butler
MWC: Utah, Brigham Young
Pac 10: Washington, UCLA
SEC: LSU, Tennessee
Total # Locks: 34
Minimum # Locks: 25
March 13 Update: Siena won automatic bid, Boston College added to locks, Miami, Cincinnati, Georgetown, New Mexico, and UNLV removed from consideration
Stats courtesy of CBSSports.com and Joe Lunardi's InsideRPI (ESPN Insider Subscription required). Rankings are as of March 8, 2009.
RPI/ Conf or Non Conf RPI: Good RPI is 30's or higher, marginal is 40's, poor is 50's or below.
Last 12 games: 8-4 or better is a strength, 6-6 or lower a weakness.
SOS/Non Conf SOS: Good is top 20, bad is below 100.
Top 25 games: Strength: Two or more, Weakness: Zero
Top 50 games: Strength: Four or more, Weakness: One or fewer
Bad losses: Weakness: Home losses to teams below 100 in RPI, Loss to teams below 200 in RPI
Bubble Teams (In/Out as of Last Schmolik 64 Update)
ACC
Maryland (Out)
Strengths: Two Top 25 wins (vs Michigan State, North Carolina), Bubble wins (Michigan, Virginia Tech)
Weaknesses: RPI (67), Conf RPI (61), 5-7 in last 12 games, Non Conf SOS (136), Bad Loss (Morgan State)
Should Be In If: They make the ACC Final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the ACC SF, beating Wake Forest, They beat NC State but lose to Wake Forest
Outlook: A hard sell at this point, even if they win their first tourney game. A win over Wake would help a lot, but it may not even be enough.
Virginia Tech (Out)
StrengthsL Two Top 25 Wins (at Wake Forest, at Clemson)
Weaknesses: RPI (63), Non Conf RPI (67), Non Conf SOS (158), 4-8 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (at Maryland)
Should Be In If: They make the ACC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the ACC SF, beating North Carolina, They beat Miami but lose to North Carolina
Outlook: Just like Maryland, a win over North Carolina might not be enough and it would be very unlikely if they don't beat the Tar Heels. One thing for sure, the loser of the VaTech/Miami game definitely is out.
Atlantic 10
Temple (Out)
Strengths: Non Conf SOS (20), 8-4 in last 12 games, Bubble Wins (at Penn State)
Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (58), Only one Top 50 win (Tennessee)
Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final, beating Xavier
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the A-10 SF, losing to Xavier
Outlook: OK RPI numbers, the Penn State win will give the Owls some consideration (assuming they lose to Xavier).
Big East
Providence (Out)
Strengths: Two Top 25 wins (Syracuse, Pittsburgh)
Weaknesses: RPI (71), Conf RPI (57), Non Conf RPI (83), Non Conf SOS (157), 6-6 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (vs St. Mary's)
Tournament Road: Beat DePaul, Lost to Louisville
Outlook: Not much positive to say, the two bubble wins are over teams with little or no chance of making the NCAA's anyway
Big 10
Penn State (In)
Strengths: Three Top 25 wins (at Michigan State, at Illinois, Illinois), Six Top 50 wins (also Purdue, Michigan, Minnesota), Bubble Wins (Michigan, Minnesota)
Weaknesses: RPI (66), Conf RPI (55), Non Conf RPI (92), Non Conf SOS (313!), Bubble Losses (at Temple, at Minnesota, at Michigan)
Should Be In If: Beats Purdue, makes SF
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses to Purdue
Outlook: I realize no one wants to come to the middle of nowhere in Pennsylvania in the winter (trust me, I've been there), but their non conference SOS is dreadful and the committee can send a message and keep them out if they fail to beat Purdue. Of course, those top 25 and top 50 wins are impressive.
Michigan (In)
Strengths: Conf RPI (36), Non Conf RPI (35), SOS (10), Two Top 25 Wins (Illinois, Duke), Six Top 50 Wins (also vs UCLA, Minnesota, Purdue, at Minnesota), Bubble Wins (Penn State, Minnesota - 2)
Weaknesses: 6-6 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (at Penn State)
Should Be In If: Beats Illinois, makes SF
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses to Illinois
Outlook: Penn State finished a game ahead of Michigan in the standings but Michigan has a significantly higher conference RPI as they played a tougher Big 10 schedule. They also played a much better non conference schedule which included wins over UCLA and Duke. Don't be surprised if Michigan gets taken over Penn State if it came down to one or the other.
Minnesota (In)
Strengths: Non Conf RPI (16), Two Top 25 Wins (vs Louisville, Illinois), Five Top 50 Wins (also Ohio State, at Wisconsin, Wisconsin), Bubble Wins (Penn State)
Weaknesses: Conf RPI (60), Non Conf SOS (184), 5-7 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (at Penn State, at Michigan, Michigan)
Should Be In If: Beats Michigan State, makes SF
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses to Michigan State
Outlook: They have the worst conf RPI of the three Big 10 bubble schools and were swept by Michigan which could hurt them if it comes down to them and the Wolverines (and Michigan just won at Minnesota in the last game). Probably would have a better chance if Penn State loses in their 1st game.
Big 12
No Bubble Teams
Conf USA
No Bubble Teams
MWC
New Mexico (In)
Strengths: Conf RPI (22), 10-2 in last 12 games, Two Top 25 wins (Utah, BYU), Bubble wins (San Diego State)
Weaknesses: RPI (58), Non Conf RPI (103), Non Conf SOS (171), Bubble losses (at San Diego State)
Should Be In If: Makes the MWC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Makes the MWC SF
Should Be Out If: Loses their first MWC game to Wyoming
Outlook: Tying for the MWC lead will give them consideration but their low RPI and weak non conference schedule will probably cost them if they lose to Wyoming.
San Diego State (In)
Strengths: Conf RPI (34), 8-4 in last 12 games, Bubble wins (UNLV - 2, New Mexico)
Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (54), Only 1 Top 50 win (Utah), Bubble losses (at Arizona, at New Mexico)
Should Be In If: Makes the MWC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses to Utah in MWC SF
Outlook: A game behind New Mexico in conference. A loss to UNLV may not be fatal as they would still hold a 2-1 lead over the Rebels and the tournament is on UNLV's home court.
Pac 10
Arizona (In)
Strengths: Non Conf RPI (38), 8-4 in last 12 games, Two Top 25 wins (Kansas, Washington), Five Top 50 wins (also vs Gonzaga, UCLA, San Diego State), Bubble Wins - San Diego State
Weaknesses: RPI (54), Conf RPI (65)
Tournament Road: Lost to Arizona State in QF
Outlook: Came on strong and have great wins. They avoid the potential bad loss in the 1st round which helps them. I would be rooting for San Diego State to beat UNLV as that would clearly help their chances
SEC
South Carolina (Out)
Strengths: 8-4 in last 12 games, Bubble Wins (Auburn)
Weaknesses: RPI (49), Non Conf RPI (76), Non Conf SOS (272), No Top 25 wins, Only one Top 50 win (Florida)
Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Makes the SEC SF
Should Be Out If: Loses their first SEC game to Mississippi State
Outlook: Extremely weak in the quality win category and a pathetic non conference schedule, they have to show something in the SEC tournament.
Auburn (Out)
Strengths: Conf RPI (32), 9-3 in last 12 games
Weaknesses: RPI (64), Non Conf RPI (80), Non Conf SOS (194), Bad losses (Mercer), Bubble losses (at South Carolina)
Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Makes the SEC SF
Should Be Out If: Loses their first SEC game to Florida
Outlook: The reason I don't have Florida in the bubble watch is that Florida does not have Auburn's conference RPI or Auburn's 9-3 finish. Of course, Auburn will miss the NCAA's if they lose to Florida but would at least put themselves in the conversation with a win over the Gators.
Other
Utah State (In)
Strengths: RPI (29), Conf RPI (28), 9-3 in last 12 games
Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (55), Non Conf SOS (186), Only One Top 50 win (Utah), Bubble loss (St. Mary's)
Should Be In If: Wins the tournament (automatic bid)
Should Be On the Bubble If: Does not lose to Hawaii or Fresno State
Outlook: Similar to Siena but they don't have the non conference scedule of Siena. A loss to Hawaii or Fresno State will likely plummet their RPI and conference RPI as well as end their at large hopes.
Creighton (In)
Strengths: RPI (39), 11-1 in last 12 games
Weaknesses: Conf RPI (50), SOS (111), Non Conf SOS (131), Bad losses (Drake)
Tournament Result: Lost to Illinois State in MVC SF
Outlook: I hesitate since they lost two of three to Illinois State which is right there in the RPI. The big differences are a three game difference in the MVC regular season standings and an 11-1 vs 7-5 for ISU. If it weren't for that, Creighton's chances would be better. Still, the committee has slighted the MVC in recent years and it wouldn't surprise me at all if they did again.
St. Mary's (In)
Strengths: Non Conf RPI (28), 8-4 in last 12 games
Weaknesses; Conf RPI (109), SOS (143), No Top 25 wins
Tournament Result: Lost to Gonzaga in WCC Final
Outlook: They needed to get to the final. I'm not sure if that was impressive enough a victory. The win over Utah State will help their at large bid hopes.
Teams who I feel can play themselves into the tournament with a good week (list is not all inclusive). Teams previously listed that were eliminated have been removed.
C-USA: UAB, Tulsa
Pac 10: USC
SEC: Florida, Kentucky
Schmolik
Hello, college basketball fans!
Updated: March 13, 2009 1:51am. After SIX OT's of Connecticut and Syracuse!
It's time for Schmolik's Bubble Watch. For many teams, this is a make or break week. Bubble Watch analyzes who is on the bubble and their chances of making the NCAA's.
First, teams that I feel are locks for the tournament. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind during the week. Automatic Bids not included.
ACC: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Duke, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College
A-10: Xavier, Dayton
Big East: Louisville, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big 10: Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State
Big 12: Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Texas
C-USA: Memphis
Horizon: Butler
MWC: Utah, Brigham Young
Pac 10: Washington, UCLA
SEC: LSU, Tennessee
Total # Locks: 34
Minimum # Locks: 25
March 13 Update: Siena won automatic bid, Boston College added to locks, Miami, Cincinnati, Georgetown, New Mexico, and UNLV removed from consideration
Stats courtesy of CBSSports.com and Joe Lunardi's InsideRPI (ESPN Insider Subscription required). Rankings are as of March 8, 2009.
RPI/ Conf or Non Conf RPI: Good RPI is 30's or higher, marginal is 40's, poor is 50's or below.
Last 12 games: 8-4 or better is a strength, 6-6 or lower a weakness.
SOS/Non Conf SOS: Good is top 20, bad is below 100.
Top 25 games: Strength: Two or more, Weakness: Zero
Top 50 games: Strength: Four or more, Weakness: One or fewer
Bad losses: Weakness: Home losses to teams below 100 in RPI, Loss to teams below 200 in RPI
Bubble Teams (In/Out as of Last Schmolik 64 Update)
ACC
Maryland (Out)
Strengths: Two Top 25 wins (vs Michigan State, North Carolina), Bubble wins (Michigan, Virginia Tech)
Weaknesses: RPI (67), Conf RPI (61), 5-7 in last 12 games, Non Conf SOS (136), Bad Loss (Morgan State)
Should Be In If: They make the ACC Final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the ACC SF, beating Wake Forest, They beat NC State but lose to Wake Forest
Outlook: A hard sell at this point, even if they win their first tourney game. A win over Wake would help a lot, but it may not even be enough.
Virginia Tech (Out)
StrengthsL Two Top 25 Wins (at Wake Forest, at Clemson)
Weaknesses: RPI (63), Non Conf RPI (67), Non Conf SOS (158), 4-8 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (at Maryland)
Should Be In If: They make the ACC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the ACC SF, beating North Carolina, They beat Miami but lose to North Carolina
Outlook: Just like Maryland, a win over North Carolina might not be enough and it would be very unlikely if they don't beat the Tar Heels. One thing for sure, the loser of the VaTech/Miami game definitely is out.
Atlantic 10
Temple (Out)
Strengths: Non Conf SOS (20), 8-4 in last 12 games, Bubble Wins (at Penn State)
Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (58), Only one Top 50 win (Tennessee)
Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final, beating Xavier
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the A-10 SF, losing to Xavier
Outlook: OK RPI numbers, the Penn State win will give the Owls some consideration (assuming they lose to Xavier).
Big East
Providence (Out)
Strengths: Two Top 25 wins (Syracuse, Pittsburgh)
Weaknesses: RPI (71), Conf RPI (57), Non Conf RPI (83), Non Conf SOS (157), 6-6 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (vs St. Mary's)
Tournament Road: Beat DePaul, Lost to Louisville
Outlook: Not much positive to say, the two bubble wins are over teams with little or no chance of making the NCAA's anyway
Big 10
Penn State (In)
Strengths: Three Top 25 wins (at Michigan State, at Illinois, Illinois), Six Top 50 wins (also Purdue, Michigan, Minnesota), Bubble Wins (Michigan, Minnesota)
Weaknesses: RPI (66), Conf RPI (55), Non Conf RPI (92), Non Conf SOS (313!), Bubble Losses (at Temple, at Minnesota, at Michigan)
Should Be In If: Beats Purdue, makes SF
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses to Purdue
Outlook: I realize no one wants to come to the middle of nowhere in Pennsylvania in the winter (trust me, I've been there), but their non conference SOS is dreadful and the committee can send a message and keep them out if they fail to beat Purdue. Of course, those top 25 and top 50 wins are impressive.
Michigan (In)
Strengths: Conf RPI (36), Non Conf RPI (35), SOS (10), Two Top 25 Wins (Illinois, Duke), Six Top 50 Wins (also vs UCLA, Minnesota, Purdue, at Minnesota), Bubble Wins (Penn State, Minnesota - 2)
Weaknesses: 6-6 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (at Penn State)
Should Be In If: Beats Illinois, makes SF
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses to Illinois
Outlook: Penn State finished a game ahead of Michigan in the standings but Michigan has a significantly higher conference RPI as they played a tougher Big 10 schedule. They also played a much better non conference schedule which included wins over UCLA and Duke. Don't be surprised if Michigan gets taken over Penn State if it came down to one or the other.
Minnesota (In)
Strengths: Non Conf RPI (16), Two Top 25 Wins (vs Louisville, Illinois), Five Top 50 Wins (also Ohio State, at Wisconsin, Wisconsin), Bubble Wins (Penn State)
Weaknesses: Conf RPI (60), Non Conf SOS (184), 5-7 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (at Penn State, at Michigan, Michigan)
Should Be In If: Beats Michigan State, makes SF
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses to Michigan State
Outlook: They have the worst conf RPI of the three Big 10 bubble schools and were swept by Michigan which could hurt them if it comes down to them and the Wolverines (and Michigan just won at Minnesota in the last game). Probably would have a better chance if Penn State loses in their 1st game.
Big 12
No Bubble Teams
Conf USA
No Bubble Teams
MWC
New Mexico (In)
Strengths: Conf RPI (22), 10-2 in last 12 games, Two Top 25 wins (Utah, BYU), Bubble wins (San Diego State)
Weaknesses: RPI (58), Non Conf RPI (103), Non Conf SOS (171), Bubble losses (at San Diego State)
Should Be In If: Makes the MWC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Makes the MWC SF
Should Be Out If: Loses their first MWC game to Wyoming
Outlook: Tying for the MWC lead will give them consideration but their low RPI and weak non conference schedule will probably cost them if they lose to Wyoming.
San Diego State (In)
Strengths: Conf RPI (34), 8-4 in last 12 games, Bubble wins (UNLV - 2, New Mexico)
Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (54), Only 1 Top 50 win (Utah), Bubble losses (at Arizona, at New Mexico)
Should Be In If: Makes the MWC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses to Utah in MWC SF
Outlook: A game behind New Mexico in conference. A loss to UNLV may not be fatal as they would still hold a 2-1 lead over the Rebels and the tournament is on UNLV's home court.
Pac 10
Arizona (In)
Strengths: Non Conf RPI (38), 8-4 in last 12 games, Two Top 25 wins (Kansas, Washington), Five Top 50 wins (also vs Gonzaga, UCLA, San Diego State), Bubble Wins - San Diego State
Weaknesses: RPI (54), Conf RPI (65)
Tournament Road: Lost to Arizona State in QF
Outlook: Came on strong and have great wins. They avoid the potential bad loss in the 1st round which helps them. I would be rooting for San Diego State to beat UNLV as that would clearly help their chances
SEC
South Carolina (Out)
Strengths: 8-4 in last 12 games, Bubble Wins (Auburn)
Weaknesses: RPI (49), Non Conf RPI (76), Non Conf SOS (272), No Top 25 wins, Only one Top 50 win (Florida)
Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Makes the SEC SF
Should Be Out If: Loses their first SEC game to Mississippi State
Outlook: Extremely weak in the quality win category and a pathetic non conference schedule, they have to show something in the SEC tournament.
Auburn (Out)
Strengths: Conf RPI (32), 9-3 in last 12 games
Weaknesses: RPI (64), Non Conf RPI (80), Non Conf SOS (194), Bad losses (Mercer), Bubble losses (at South Carolina)
Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Makes the SEC SF
Should Be Out If: Loses their first SEC game to Florida
Outlook: The reason I don't have Florida in the bubble watch is that Florida does not have Auburn's conference RPI or Auburn's 9-3 finish. Of course, Auburn will miss the NCAA's if they lose to Florida but would at least put themselves in the conversation with a win over the Gators.
Other
Utah State (In)
Strengths: RPI (29), Conf RPI (28), 9-3 in last 12 games
Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (55), Non Conf SOS (186), Only One Top 50 win (Utah), Bubble loss (St. Mary's)
Should Be In If: Wins the tournament (automatic bid)
Should Be On the Bubble If: Does not lose to Hawaii or Fresno State
Outlook: Similar to Siena but they don't have the non conference scedule of Siena. A loss to Hawaii or Fresno State will likely plummet their RPI and conference RPI as well as end their at large hopes.
Creighton (In)
Strengths: RPI (39), 11-1 in last 12 games
Weaknesses: Conf RPI (50), SOS (111), Non Conf SOS (131), Bad losses (Drake)
Tournament Result: Lost to Illinois State in MVC SF
Outlook: I hesitate since they lost two of three to Illinois State which is right there in the RPI. The big differences are a three game difference in the MVC regular season standings and an 11-1 vs 7-5 for ISU. If it weren't for that, Creighton's chances would be better. Still, the committee has slighted the MVC in recent years and it wouldn't surprise me at all if they did again.
St. Mary's (In)
Strengths: Non Conf RPI (28), 8-4 in last 12 games
Weaknesses; Conf RPI (109), SOS (143), No Top 25 wins
Tournament Result: Lost to Gonzaga in WCC Final
Outlook: They needed to get to the final. I'm not sure if that was impressive enough a victory. The win over Utah State will help their at large bid hopes.
Teams who I feel can play themselves into the tournament with a good week (list is not all inclusive). Teams previously listed that were eliminated have been removed.
C-USA: UAB, Tulsa
Pac 10: USC
SEC: Florida, Kentucky
Schmolik
Monday, March 9, 2009
Schmolik Bubble Watch (3/9/09)
Schmolik Bubble Watch
Hello, college basketball fans!
Updated: March 9, 2009
It's time for Schmolik's Bubble Watch. For many teams, this is a make or break week. Bubble Watch analyzes who is on the bubble and their chances of making the NCAA's.
First, teams that I feel are locks for the tournament. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind during the week. Automatic Bids not included.
ACC: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Duke, Florida State, Clemson
A-10: Xavier, Dayton
Big East: Louisville, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big 10: Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State
Big 12: Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Texas
C-USA: Memphis
Horizon: Butler
MWC: Utah, Brigham Young
Pac 10: Washington, UCLA
SEC: LSU, Tennessee
WCC: Gonzaga
Total # Locks: 34
Minimum # Locks: 23
Stats courtesy of CBSSports.com and Joe Lunardi's InsideRPI (ESPN Insider Subscription required). Rankings are as of March 8, 2009.
RPI/ Conf or Non Conf RPI: Good RPI is 30's or higher, marginal is 40's, poor is 50's or below.
Last 12 games: 8-4 or better is a strength, 6-6 or lower a weakness.
SOS/Non Conf SOS: Good is top 20, bad is below 100.
Top 25 games: Strength: Two or more, Weakness: Zero
Top 50 games: Strength: Four or more, Weakness: One or fewer
Bad losses: Weakness: Home losses to teams below 100 in RPI, Loss to teams below 200 in RPI
Bubble Teams (In/Out as of Last Schmolik 64 Update)
ACC
Boston College (In)
Strengths: Conference RPI (37), 8-4 in last 12 games, Three Top 25 wins (at North Carolina, Duke, Florida State), Four Top 50 wins (also UAB), Bubble Wins (at Maryland, Virginia Tech, UAB, Providence)
Weaknesses: RPI (57), Non Conf RPI (69), Non Conf SOS (229), Bubble Losses: Miami (2), at Virginia Tech, Bad Loss: Harvard
Should Be In If: One ACC Win
Should Be On Bubble if: Loses first ACC game
Outlook: The safest of the ACC bubble teams, probably in for sure if it weren't for the Harvard loss.
Maryland (Out)
Strengths: Two Top 25 wins (vs Michigan State, North Carolina), Bubble wins (Michigan, Miami, Virginia Tech)
Weaknesses: RPI (67), Conf RPI (61), 5-7 in last 12 games, Non Conf SOS (133), Bubble Losses (vs Georgetown, at Miami, Boston College), Bad Loss (Morgan State)
Should Be In If: They make the ACC Final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the ACC SF, beating Wake Forest, They beat NC State but lose to Wake Forest
Should Be Out If: They lose to NC State
Outlook: A hard sell at this point, even if they win their first tourney game. A win over Wake would help a lot, but it may not even be enough.
Virginia Tech (Out)
StrengthsL Two Top 25 Wins (at Wake Forest, at Clemson), Bubble Wins (Boston College, at Miami)
Weaknesses: RPI (62), Non Conf RPI (67), Non Conf SOS (159), 4-8 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (at Boston College, at Maryland)
Should Be In If: They make the ACC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the ACC SF, beating North Carolina, They beat Miami but lose to North Carolina
Should Be Out If: They lose to Miami
Outlook: Just like Maryland, a win over North Carolina might not be enough and it would be very unlikely if they don't beat the Tar Heels. One thing for sure, the loser of the VaTech/Miami game definitely is out.
Miami Florida (Out)
Strengths: Two Top 25 wins (Florida State, Wake Forest), Bubble Wins: Boston College (2), Maryland
Weaknesses: RPI (53), Non Conf RPI (52), Non Conf SOS (223), 5-7 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (at Maryland, Virginia Tech)
Should Be In If: They make the ACC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the ACC SF, beating North Carolina, They beat Virginia Tech but lose to North Carolina
Should Be Out If: They lose to Virginia Tech
Outlook: See Virginia Tech
Atlantic 10
Temple (Out)
Strengths: Non Conf SOS (20), 8-4 in last 12 games, Bubble Wins (at Penn State)
Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (57), Only one Top 50 win (Tennessee)
Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final, beating Xavier
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the A-10 SF, losing to Xavier
Should Be Out If: They lose in their first A-10 tourney game or lose the SF to someone other than Xavier
Outlook: OK RPI numbers, the Penn State win will give the Owls some consideration (assuming they lose to Xavier).
Big East
Providence (Out)
Strengths: Two Top 25 wins (Syracuse, Pittsburgh), Bubble wins (Cincinnati - 2)
Weaknesses: RPI (70), Conf RPI (50), Non Conf RPI (81), Non Conf SOS (158), 6-6 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (vs St. Mary's, at Boston College, at Georgetown)
Should Be In If: They make the Big East final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the Big East SF, They make the Big East QF, losing to Louisville
Should Be Out If: They lose their first Big East game to Cincinnati or DePaul.
Outlook: Not much positive to say, the two bubble wins are over teams with little or no chance of making the NCAA's anyway
Cincinnati (Out)
Strengths: Four Top 50 wins (UAB, Georgetown - 2, West Virginia), Bubble wins (at UNLV, Georgetown - 2)
Weaknesses: RPI (72), Conf RPI (84), 6-6 in last 12 games, No Top 25 Wins, Bubble Losses (Providence - 2)
Should Be In If: They make the Big East final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the Big East SF
Should Be Out If: They do not make the semifinals
Outlook: I don't think a win over Providence would be enough as Providence has already beaten Cincinnati twice and would stay ahead of them in the pecking order. The loss would probably do more to hurt Providence's chances than help Cincinnati's.
Georgetown (Out)
Strengths: SOS (4), Non Conf RPI (5), Non Conf SOS (11), Four Top 25 wins (Memphis, at Connecticut, Syracuse, at Villanova), Four Top 50 wins, Bubble Wins (vs Maryland, Providence)
Weaknesses: Conf RPI (74), 4-8 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (Cincinnati - 2)
Should Be In If: They make the Big East final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the Big East SF, losing to Villanova, They make the Big East QF, losing to Marquette
Should Be Out If: They lose their first Big East game
Outlook: Don't laugh at the Hoyas. They clearly have played a tough schedule and a tough non conference schedule. Their RPI is in the middle and they have four top 25 wins. The tournament path works in their favor. If they win their first game, they have Marquette, which hasn't won a game since Dominic James went down. They are behind Cincinnati and Notre Dame in the Big East standings but the Selection Committee has been known to pass over teams with better conference records. Their top 25 wins might be enough and there's always a team that gets in with poor numbers but eye catching wins. If any team is that team this year, it's Georgetown.
Big 10
Penn State (In)
Strengths: Three Top 25 wins (at Michigan State, at Illinois, Illinois), Six Top 50 wins (also Purdue, Michigan, Minnesota), Bubble Wins (Michigan, Minnesota)
Weaknesses: RPI (63), Conf RPI (56), Non Conf RPI (90), Non Conf SOS (313!), Bubble Losses (at Temple, at Minnesota, at Michigan)
Should Be In If: Beats Indiana and Purdue, makes SF
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Indiana, loses to Purdue
Should Be Out If: Loses to Indiana!
Outlook: I realize no one wants to come to the middle of nowhere in Pennsylvania in the winter (trust me, I've been there), but their non conference SOS is dreadful and the committee can send a message and keep them out if they fail to beat Purdue. Of course, those top 25 and top 50 wins are impressive.
Michigan (In)
Strengths: Conf RPI (35), Non Conf RPI (34), SOS (10), Two Top 25 Wins (Illinois, Duke), Six Top 50 Wins (also vs UCLA, Minnesota, Purdue, at Minnesota), Bubble Wins (Penn State, Minnesota - 2)
Weaknesses: 6-6 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (at Penn State)
Should Be In If: Beats Iowa and Illinois, makes SF
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Iowa, loses to Illinois
Should Be Out If: Loses to Iowa
Outlook: Penn State finished a game ahead of Michigan in the standings but Michigan has a significantly higher conference RPI as they played a tougher Big 10 schedule. They also played a much better non conference schedule which included wins over UCLA and Duke. Don't be surprised if Michigan gets taken over Penn State if it came down to one or the other.
Minnesota (In)
Strengths: Non Conf RPI (17), Two Top 25 Wins (vs Louisville, Illinois), Five Top 50 Wins (also Ohio State, at Wisconsin, Wisconsin), Bubble Wins (Penn State)
Weaknesses: Conf RPI (62), Non Conf SOS (186), 5-7 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (at Penn State, at Michigan, Michigan)
Should Be In If: Beats Northwestern and Michigan State, makes SF
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Northwestern, loses to Michigan State
Should Be Out If: Loses to Northwestern
Outlook: They have the worst conf RPI of the three Big 10 bubble schools and were swept by Michigan which could hurt them if it comes down to them and the Wolverines (and Michigan just won at Minnesota in the last game). Probably would have a better chance if Penn State loses in their 1st game.
Big 12
No Bubble Teams
Conf USA
No Bubble Teams
MWC
New Mexico (In)
Strengths: Conf RPI (20), 10-2 in last 12 games, Two Top 25 wins (Utah, BYU), Bubble wins (San Diego State, UNLV)
Weaknesses: RPI (58), Non Conf RPI (110), Non Conf SOS (177), Bubble losses (at San Diego State, at UNLV)
Should Be In If: Makes the MWC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Makes the MWC SF
Should Be Out If: Loses their first MWC game to Wyoming
Outlook: Tying for the MWC lead will give them consideration but their low RPI and weak non conference schedule will probably cost them if they lose to Wyoming.
San Diego State (In)
Strengths: Conf RPI (32), 8-4 in last 12 games, Bubble wins (UNLV - 2, New Mexico)
Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (53), Only 1 Top 50 win (Utah), Bubble losses (at Arizona, at New Mexico)
Should Be In If: Makes the MWC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Makes the MWC SF, Loses their first MWC game to UNLV
Outlook: A game behind New Mexico in conference. A loss to UNLV may not be fatal as they would still hold a 2-1 lead over the Rebels and the tournament is on UNLV's home court.
UNLV (Out)
Strengths: Four Top 25 Wins (at Louisville, BYU - 2, Utah), Four Top 50 Wins, Bubble wins - Arizona, New Mexico
Weaknesses: RPI (55), Conf RPI (82), Non Conf SOS (152), Bubble Losses - at New Mexico, San Diego State - 2, Cincinnati
Should Be In If: Makes the MWC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Makes the MWC SF, losing to Utah
Should Be Out If: Loses their first MWC game to San Diego State or their second game to someone other than Utah
Outlook: Finished two games behind San Diego State (and were swept by them) and three behind New Mexico. Of course, the four top 25 wins will help them (see Georgetown). I would hate to see UNLV get in over San Diego State if they win the quarterfinal, but I can see it happening.
Pac 10
Arizona (In)
Strengths: Non Conf RPI (36), 8-4 in last 12 games, Two Top 25 wins (Kansas, Washington), Five Top 50 wins (also vs Gonzaga, UCLA, San Diego State), Bubble Wins - San Diego State
Weaknesses: RPI (52), Conf RPI (66), Bubble losses - at UNLV
Should Be In If: Beats Arizona State in Pac 10 QF
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses to Arizona State in Pac 10 QF
Outlook: Came on strong and have great wins. They avoid the potential bad loss in the 1st round which helps them. I would be rooting for San Diego State to beat UNLV as that would clearly help their chances
SEC
South Carolina (Out)
Strengths: Conf RPI (38), 8-4 in last 12 games, Bubble Wins (Auburn)
Weaknesses: RPI (50), Non Conf RPI (74), Non Conf SOS (275), No Top 25 wins, Only one Top 50 win (Florida)
Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Makes the SEC SF
Should Be Out If: Loses their first SEC game to Mississippi State or Georgia
Outlook: Extremely weak in the quality win category and a pathetic non conference schedule, they have to show something in the SEC tournament.
Auburn (Out)
Strengths: Conf RPI (31), 9-3 in last 12 games
Weaknesses: RPI (64), Non Conf RPI (82), Non Conf SOS (198), Bad losses (Mercer), Bubble losses (at South Carolina)
Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Makes the SEC SF
Should Be Out If: Loses their first SEC game to Florida or Arkansas
Outlook: The reason I don't have Florida in the bubble watch is that Florida does not have Auburn's conference RPI or Auburn's 9-3 finish. Of course, Auburn will miss the NCAA's if they lose to Florida but would at least put themselves in the conversation with a win over the Gators.
Other
Siena (In)
Strengths: RPI (24), Conf RPI (23), Non Conf RPI (37), Non Conf SOS (2), 10-2 in last 12 games
Weaknesses: No Top 25 or Top 50 wins
Should Be In If: Wins the tournament (automatic bid)
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses the final to Niagara
Outlook: Pretty much "no quality wins" is the only reason they would not make the tourmanent, but that could be enough for the Selection Committee. Considering they have the second best non conference schedule in the country (and that's saying something), I would be furious if they didn't make it in, especially considering they made the final and would lose to Niagara who would probably make the top 50 in RPI if they beat Siena. Of course, if they win it's a moot point.
Utah State (In)
Strengths: RPI (27), Conf RPI (28), 9-3 in last 12 games
Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (51), Non Conf SOS (167), Only One Top 50 win (Utah), Bubble loss (St. Mary's)
Should Be In If: Wins the tournament (automatic bid)
Should Be On the Bubble If: Does not lose to Hawaii or Fresno State
Should Be Out If: Loses to Hawaii or Fresno State
Outlook: Similar to Siena but they don't have the non conference scedule of Siena. A loss to Hawaii or Fresno State will likely plummet their RPI and conference RPI as well as end their at large hopes.
Creighton (In)
Strengths: RPI (39), 11-1 in last 12 games
Weaknesses: SOS (105), Non Conf SOS (128), Bad losses (Drake)
Tournament Result: Lost to Illinois State in MVC SF
Outlook: I hesitate since they lost two of three to Illinois State which is right there in the RPI. The big differences are a three game difference in the MVC regular season standings and an 11-1 vs 7-5 for ISU. If it weren't for that, Creighton's chances would be better. Still, the committee has slighted the MVC in recent years and it wouldn't surprise me at all if they did again.
St. Mary's (In)
Strengths: Non Conf RPI (31), 8-4 in last 12 games
Weaknesses; Conf RPI (114), SOS (170), No Top 25 wins
Should Be In If: Wins the tournament (automatic bid)
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses to Gonzaga in the WCC final
Outlook: They needed to get to the final. I'm not sure if that was impressive enough a victory. The win over Utah State will help their at large bid hopes.
Teams who I feel can play themselves into the tournament with a good week (list is not all inclusive).
Atlantic 10: Rhode Island
Big East: Notre Dame
Big 10: Northwestern
Big 12: Kansas State
C-USA: UAB, Tulsa
Pac 10: USC
SEC: Florida, Kentucky
Schmolik
Hello, college basketball fans!
Updated: March 9, 2009
It's time for Schmolik's Bubble Watch. For many teams, this is a make or break week. Bubble Watch analyzes who is on the bubble and their chances of making the NCAA's.
First, teams that I feel are locks for the tournament. As always, I reserve the right to change my mind during the week. Automatic Bids not included.
ACC: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Duke, Florida State, Clemson
A-10: Xavier, Dayton
Big East: Louisville, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big 10: Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State
Big 12: Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Texas
C-USA: Memphis
Horizon: Butler
MWC: Utah, Brigham Young
Pac 10: Washington, UCLA
SEC: LSU, Tennessee
WCC: Gonzaga
Total # Locks: 34
Minimum # Locks: 23
Stats courtesy of CBSSports.com and Joe Lunardi's InsideRPI (ESPN Insider Subscription required). Rankings are as of March 8, 2009.
RPI/ Conf or Non Conf RPI: Good RPI is 30's or higher, marginal is 40's, poor is 50's or below.
Last 12 games: 8-4 or better is a strength, 6-6 or lower a weakness.
SOS/Non Conf SOS: Good is top 20, bad is below 100.
Top 25 games: Strength: Two or more, Weakness: Zero
Top 50 games: Strength: Four or more, Weakness: One or fewer
Bad losses: Weakness: Home losses to teams below 100 in RPI, Loss to teams below 200 in RPI
Bubble Teams (In/Out as of Last Schmolik 64 Update)
ACC
Boston College (In)
Strengths: Conference RPI (37), 8-4 in last 12 games, Three Top 25 wins (at North Carolina, Duke, Florida State), Four Top 50 wins (also UAB), Bubble Wins (at Maryland, Virginia Tech, UAB, Providence)
Weaknesses: RPI (57), Non Conf RPI (69), Non Conf SOS (229), Bubble Losses: Miami (2), at Virginia Tech, Bad Loss: Harvard
Should Be In If: One ACC Win
Should Be On Bubble if: Loses first ACC game
Outlook: The safest of the ACC bubble teams, probably in for sure if it weren't for the Harvard loss.
Maryland (Out)
Strengths: Two Top 25 wins (vs Michigan State, North Carolina), Bubble wins (Michigan, Miami, Virginia Tech)
Weaknesses: RPI (67), Conf RPI (61), 5-7 in last 12 games, Non Conf SOS (133), Bubble Losses (vs Georgetown, at Miami, Boston College), Bad Loss (Morgan State)
Should Be In If: They make the ACC Final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the ACC SF, beating Wake Forest, They beat NC State but lose to Wake Forest
Should Be Out If: They lose to NC State
Outlook: A hard sell at this point, even if they win their first tourney game. A win over Wake would help a lot, but it may not even be enough.
Virginia Tech (Out)
StrengthsL Two Top 25 Wins (at Wake Forest, at Clemson), Bubble Wins (Boston College, at Miami)
Weaknesses: RPI (62), Non Conf RPI (67), Non Conf SOS (159), 4-8 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (at Boston College, at Maryland)
Should Be In If: They make the ACC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the ACC SF, beating North Carolina, They beat Miami but lose to North Carolina
Should Be Out If: They lose to Miami
Outlook: Just like Maryland, a win over North Carolina might not be enough and it would be very unlikely if they don't beat the Tar Heels. One thing for sure, the loser of the VaTech/Miami game definitely is out.
Miami Florida (Out)
Strengths: Two Top 25 wins (Florida State, Wake Forest), Bubble Wins: Boston College (2), Maryland
Weaknesses: RPI (53), Non Conf RPI (52), Non Conf SOS (223), 5-7 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (at Maryland, Virginia Tech)
Should Be In If: They make the ACC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the ACC SF, beating North Carolina, They beat Virginia Tech but lose to North Carolina
Should Be Out If: They lose to Virginia Tech
Outlook: See Virginia Tech
Atlantic 10
Temple (Out)
Strengths: Non Conf SOS (20), 8-4 in last 12 games, Bubble Wins (at Penn State)
Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (57), Only one Top 50 win (Tennessee)
Should Be In If: They make the A-10 final, beating Xavier
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the A-10 SF, losing to Xavier
Should Be Out If: They lose in their first A-10 tourney game or lose the SF to someone other than Xavier
Outlook: OK RPI numbers, the Penn State win will give the Owls some consideration (assuming they lose to Xavier).
Big East
Providence (Out)
Strengths: Two Top 25 wins (Syracuse, Pittsburgh), Bubble wins (Cincinnati - 2)
Weaknesses: RPI (70), Conf RPI (50), Non Conf RPI (81), Non Conf SOS (158), 6-6 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (vs St. Mary's, at Boston College, at Georgetown)
Should Be In If: They make the Big East final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the Big East SF, They make the Big East QF, losing to Louisville
Should Be Out If: They lose their first Big East game to Cincinnati or DePaul.
Outlook: Not much positive to say, the two bubble wins are over teams with little or no chance of making the NCAA's anyway
Cincinnati (Out)
Strengths: Four Top 50 wins (UAB, Georgetown - 2, West Virginia), Bubble wins (at UNLV, Georgetown - 2)
Weaknesses: RPI (72), Conf RPI (84), 6-6 in last 12 games, No Top 25 Wins, Bubble Losses (Providence - 2)
Should Be In If: They make the Big East final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the Big East SF
Should Be Out If: They do not make the semifinals
Outlook: I don't think a win over Providence would be enough as Providence has already beaten Cincinnati twice and would stay ahead of them in the pecking order. The loss would probably do more to hurt Providence's chances than help Cincinnati's.
Georgetown (Out)
Strengths: SOS (4), Non Conf RPI (5), Non Conf SOS (11), Four Top 25 wins (Memphis, at Connecticut, Syracuse, at Villanova), Four Top 50 wins, Bubble Wins (vs Maryland, Providence)
Weaknesses: Conf RPI (74), 4-8 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (Cincinnati - 2)
Should Be In If: They make the Big East final
Should Be On the Bubble If: They make the Big East SF, losing to Villanova, They make the Big East QF, losing to Marquette
Should Be Out If: They lose their first Big East game
Outlook: Don't laugh at the Hoyas. They clearly have played a tough schedule and a tough non conference schedule. Their RPI is in the middle and they have four top 25 wins. The tournament path works in their favor. If they win their first game, they have Marquette, which hasn't won a game since Dominic James went down. They are behind Cincinnati and Notre Dame in the Big East standings but the Selection Committee has been known to pass over teams with better conference records. Their top 25 wins might be enough and there's always a team that gets in with poor numbers but eye catching wins. If any team is that team this year, it's Georgetown.
Big 10
Penn State (In)
Strengths: Three Top 25 wins (at Michigan State, at Illinois, Illinois), Six Top 50 wins (also Purdue, Michigan, Minnesota), Bubble Wins (Michigan, Minnesota)
Weaknesses: RPI (63), Conf RPI (56), Non Conf RPI (90), Non Conf SOS (313!), Bubble Losses (at Temple, at Minnesota, at Michigan)
Should Be In If: Beats Indiana and Purdue, makes SF
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Indiana, loses to Purdue
Should Be Out If: Loses to Indiana!
Outlook: I realize no one wants to come to the middle of nowhere in Pennsylvania in the winter (trust me, I've been there), but their non conference SOS is dreadful and the committee can send a message and keep them out if they fail to beat Purdue. Of course, those top 25 and top 50 wins are impressive.
Michigan (In)
Strengths: Conf RPI (35), Non Conf RPI (34), SOS (10), Two Top 25 Wins (Illinois, Duke), Six Top 50 Wins (also vs UCLA, Minnesota, Purdue, at Minnesota), Bubble Wins (Penn State, Minnesota - 2)
Weaknesses: 6-6 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (at Penn State)
Should Be In If: Beats Iowa and Illinois, makes SF
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Iowa, loses to Illinois
Should Be Out If: Loses to Iowa
Outlook: Penn State finished a game ahead of Michigan in the standings but Michigan has a significantly higher conference RPI as they played a tougher Big 10 schedule. They also played a much better non conference schedule which included wins over UCLA and Duke. Don't be surprised if Michigan gets taken over Penn State if it came down to one or the other.
Minnesota (In)
Strengths: Non Conf RPI (17), Two Top 25 Wins (vs Louisville, Illinois), Five Top 50 Wins (also Ohio State, at Wisconsin, Wisconsin), Bubble Wins (Penn State)
Weaknesses: Conf RPI (62), Non Conf SOS (186), 5-7 in last 12 games, Bubble Losses (at Penn State, at Michigan, Michigan)
Should Be In If: Beats Northwestern and Michigan State, makes SF
Should Be On the Bubble If: Beats Northwestern, loses to Michigan State
Should Be Out If: Loses to Northwestern
Outlook: They have the worst conf RPI of the three Big 10 bubble schools and were swept by Michigan which could hurt them if it comes down to them and the Wolverines (and Michigan just won at Minnesota in the last game). Probably would have a better chance if Penn State loses in their 1st game.
Big 12
No Bubble Teams
Conf USA
No Bubble Teams
MWC
New Mexico (In)
Strengths: Conf RPI (20), 10-2 in last 12 games, Two Top 25 wins (Utah, BYU), Bubble wins (San Diego State, UNLV)
Weaknesses: RPI (58), Non Conf RPI (110), Non Conf SOS (177), Bubble losses (at San Diego State, at UNLV)
Should Be In If: Makes the MWC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Makes the MWC SF
Should Be Out If: Loses their first MWC game to Wyoming
Outlook: Tying for the MWC lead will give them consideration but their low RPI and weak non conference schedule will probably cost them if they lose to Wyoming.
San Diego State (In)
Strengths: Conf RPI (32), 8-4 in last 12 games, Bubble wins (UNLV - 2, New Mexico)
Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (53), Only 1 Top 50 win (Utah), Bubble losses (at Arizona, at New Mexico)
Should Be In If: Makes the MWC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Makes the MWC SF, Loses their first MWC game to UNLV
Outlook: A game behind New Mexico in conference. A loss to UNLV may not be fatal as they would still hold a 2-1 lead over the Rebels and the tournament is on UNLV's home court.
UNLV (Out)
Strengths: Four Top 25 Wins (at Louisville, BYU - 2, Utah), Four Top 50 Wins, Bubble wins - Arizona, New Mexico
Weaknesses: RPI (55), Conf RPI (82), Non Conf SOS (152), Bubble Losses - at New Mexico, San Diego State - 2, Cincinnati
Should Be In If: Makes the MWC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Makes the MWC SF, losing to Utah
Should Be Out If: Loses their first MWC game to San Diego State or their second game to someone other than Utah
Outlook: Finished two games behind San Diego State (and were swept by them) and three behind New Mexico. Of course, the four top 25 wins will help them (see Georgetown). I would hate to see UNLV get in over San Diego State if they win the quarterfinal, but I can see it happening.
Pac 10
Arizona (In)
Strengths: Non Conf RPI (36), 8-4 in last 12 games, Two Top 25 wins (Kansas, Washington), Five Top 50 wins (also vs Gonzaga, UCLA, San Diego State), Bubble Wins - San Diego State
Weaknesses: RPI (52), Conf RPI (66), Bubble losses - at UNLV
Should Be In If: Beats Arizona State in Pac 10 QF
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses to Arizona State in Pac 10 QF
Outlook: Came on strong and have great wins. They avoid the potential bad loss in the 1st round which helps them. I would be rooting for San Diego State to beat UNLV as that would clearly help their chances
SEC
South Carolina (Out)
Strengths: Conf RPI (38), 8-4 in last 12 games, Bubble Wins (Auburn)
Weaknesses: RPI (50), Non Conf RPI (74), Non Conf SOS (275), No Top 25 wins, Only one Top 50 win (Florida)
Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Makes the SEC SF
Should Be Out If: Loses their first SEC game to Mississippi State or Georgia
Outlook: Extremely weak in the quality win category and a pathetic non conference schedule, they have to show something in the SEC tournament.
Auburn (Out)
Strengths: Conf RPI (31), 9-3 in last 12 games
Weaknesses: RPI (64), Non Conf RPI (82), Non Conf SOS (198), Bad losses (Mercer), Bubble losses (at South Carolina)
Should Be In If: Makes the SEC final
Should Be On the Bubble If: Makes the SEC SF
Should Be Out If: Loses their first SEC game to Florida or Arkansas
Outlook: The reason I don't have Florida in the bubble watch is that Florida does not have Auburn's conference RPI or Auburn's 9-3 finish. Of course, Auburn will miss the NCAA's if they lose to Florida but would at least put themselves in the conversation with a win over the Gators.
Other
Siena (In)
Strengths: RPI (24), Conf RPI (23), Non Conf RPI (37), Non Conf SOS (2), 10-2 in last 12 games
Weaknesses: No Top 25 or Top 50 wins
Should Be In If: Wins the tournament (automatic bid)
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses the final to Niagara
Outlook: Pretty much "no quality wins" is the only reason they would not make the tourmanent, but that could be enough for the Selection Committee. Considering they have the second best non conference schedule in the country (and that's saying something), I would be furious if they didn't make it in, especially considering they made the final and would lose to Niagara who would probably make the top 50 in RPI if they beat Siena. Of course, if they win it's a moot point.
Utah State (In)
Strengths: RPI (27), Conf RPI (28), 9-3 in last 12 games
Weaknesses: Non Conf RPI (51), Non Conf SOS (167), Only One Top 50 win (Utah), Bubble loss (St. Mary's)
Should Be In If: Wins the tournament (automatic bid)
Should Be On the Bubble If: Does not lose to Hawaii or Fresno State
Should Be Out If: Loses to Hawaii or Fresno State
Outlook: Similar to Siena but they don't have the non conference scedule of Siena. A loss to Hawaii or Fresno State will likely plummet their RPI and conference RPI as well as end their at large hopes.
Creighton (In)
Strengths: RPI (39), 11-1 in last 12 games
Weaknesses: SOS (105), Non Conf SOS (128), Bad losses (Drake)
Tournament Result: Lost to Illinois State in MVC SF
Outlook: I hesitate since they lost two of three to Illinois State which is right there in the RPI. The big differences are a three game difference in the MVC regular season standings and an 11-1 vs 7-5 for ISU. If it weren't for that, Creighton's chances would be better. Still, the committee has slighted the MVC in recent years and it wouldn't surprise me at all if they did again.
St. Mary's (In)
Strengths: Non Conf RPI (31), 8-4 in last 12 games
Weaknesses; Conf RPI (114), SOS (170), No Top 25 wins
Should Be In If: Wins the tournament (automatic bid)
Should Be On the Bubble If: Loses to Gonzaga in the WCC final
Outlook: They needed to get to the final. I'm not sure if that was impressive enough a victory. The win over Utah State will help their at large bid hopes.
Teams who I feel can play themselves into the tournament with a good week (list is not all inclusive).
Atlantic 10: Rhode Island
Big East: Notre Dame
Big 10: Northwestern
Big 12: Kansas State
C-USA: UAB, Tulsa
Pac 10: USC
SEC: Florida, Kentucky
Schmolik
Schmolik 64 Update (3/9/09) - 7pm ET
Hello, college basketball fans!
This is the fourth Schmolik 64 update for 2009. This is the first one with all 65 teams bracketed. I tried to list a slot for each one bid conference that has not finished their tournament although it isn't perfect and subject to change dependent on the actual teams.
EAST (Boston, MA - Thur/Sat)
Dayton, OH - Fri/Sun
1 Pittsburgh (27-3) vs 16 Play In Winner - Morehead State * (17-15) vs SWAC Champion
8 Arizona State (22-8) vs 9 Wisconsin (18-11)
Miami, FL - Fri/Sun
5 Florida State (23-8) vs 12 Northern Iowa * (22-10)
4 Xavier (24-6) vs 13 Southland Champion
Greensboro, NC - Thur/Sat
6 Texas A&M (22-8) vs 11 New Mexico (21-10)
3 Duke (25-6) vs 14 American East Champion (Binghamton/UMBC)
Minneapolis, MN - Fri/Sun
7 Marquette (23-8) vs 10 Utah State (26-4)
2 Michigan State (25-3) vs 15 Southern Champion (Chattanooga/Charleston)
WEST (Glendale, AZ - Thur/Sat)
Philadelphia, PA - Thur/Sat
1 Connecticut (27-3) vs 16 Northeast Champion (Robert Morris/Mt. St. Mary's)
8 Purdue (22-9) vs 9 Tennessee (19-11)
Portland, OR - Thur/Sat
5 Clemson (23-7) vs 12 San Diego State (19-8)
4 Gonzaga (24-5) vs 13 MAC Champion
Portland, OR - Thur/Sat
6 Syracuse (22-8) vs 11 Penn State (21-10)
3 Washington (23-7) vs 14 Big Sky Champion
Kansas City, MO - Thur/Sat
7 BYU (23-6) vs 10 Boston College (21-10)
2 Kansas (25-6) vs 15 Radford * (18-11)
SOUTH (Memphis, TN - Fri/Sun)
Greensboro, NC - Thur/Sat
1 North Carolina (26-3) vs 16 MEAC Champion
8 Texas (20-10) vs 9 West Virginia (21-10)
Boise, ID - Fri/Sun
5 Butler (25-4) vs 12 St. Mary's (23-5)
4 UCLA (24-7) vs 13 Minnesota (20-9) / Niagara (26-7)
Philadelphia, PA - Thur/Sat
6 Illinois (23-8) vs 11 Creighton (26-7)
3 Villanova (25-6) vs 14 America East Champion (Binghamton/UMBC)
Minneapolis, MN - Fri/Sun
7 LSU (25-6) vs 10 Dayton (25-6)
2 Oklahoma (27-4) vs 15 E. Tennessee State * (21-10)
MIDWEST (Indianapolis, IN - Fri/Sun)
Kansas City, MO - Thur/Sat
1 Memphis (28-3) vs 16 Big West Champion
8 Siena (25-7) vs 9 Ohio State (20-9)
Boise, ID - Fri/Sun
5 Utah (21-8) vs 12 Arizona (19-12)
4 Missouri (24-6) vs 13 Sun Belt Champion
Miami, FL - Fri/Sun
6 California (22-9) vs 11 Colonial Champion (George Mason/Virginia Commonwealth)
3 Wake Forest (24-5) vs 14 Summit Champion
Dayton, OH - Fri/Sun
7 Oklahoma State (20-10) vs 10 Michigan (18-12)
2 Louisville (25-5) vs 15 Cornell * (19-9)
Conf. Alignment:
Big Ten - 8
Big East - 7
ACC - 6
Big 12 - 6
Pac 10 - 5
MWC - 4
SEC - 2
A-10 - 2
WCC - 2
MVC - 2
Others - 21
Schmolik
This is the fourth Schmolik 64 update for 2009. This is the first one with all 65 teams bracketed. I tried to list a slot for each one bid conference that has not finished their tournament although it isn't perfect and subject to change dependent on the actual teams.
EAST (Boston, MA - Thur/Sat)
Dayton, OH - Fri/Sun
1 Pittsburgh (27-3) vs 16 Play In Winner - Morehead State * (17-15) vs SWAC Champion
8 Arizona State (22-8) vs 9 Wisconsin (18-11)
Miami, FL - Fri/Sun
5 Florida State (23-8) vs 12 Northern Iowa * (22-10)
4 Xavier (24-6) vs 13 Southland Champion
Greensboro, NC - Thur/Sat
6 Texas A&M (22-8) vs 11 New Mexico (21-10)
3 Duke (25-6) vs 14 American East Champion (Binghamton/UMBC)
Minneapolis, MN - Fri/Sun
7 Marquette (23-8) vs 10 Utah State (26-4)
2 Michigan State (25-3) vs 15 Southern Champion (Chattanooga/Charleston)
WEST (Glendale, AZ - Thur/Sat)
Philadelphia, PA - Thur/Sat
1 Connecticut (27-3) vs 16 Northeast Champion (Robert Morris/Mt. St. Mary's)
8 Purdue (22-9) vs 9 Tennessee (19-11)
Portland, OR - Thur/Sat
5 Clemson (23-7) vs 12 San Diego State (19-8)
4 Gonzaga (24-5) vs 13 MAC Champion
Portland, OR - Thur/Sat
6 Syracuse (22-8) vs 11 Penn State (21-10)
3 Washington (23-7) vs 14 Big Sky Champion
Kansas City, MO - Thur/Sat
7 BYU (23-6) vs 10 Boston College (21-10)
2 Kansas (25-6) vs 15 Radford * (18-11)
SOUTH (Memphis, TN - Fri/Sun)
Greensboro, NC - Thur/Sat
1 North Carolina (26-3) vs 16 MEAC Champion
8 Texas (20-10) vs 9 West Virginia (21-10)
Boise, ID - Fri/Sun
5 Butler (25-4) vs 12 St. Mary's (23-5)
4 UCLA (24-7) vs 13 Minnesota (20-9) / Niagara (26-7)
Philadelphia, PA - Thur/Sat
6 Illinois (23-8) vs 11 Creighton (26-7)
3 Villanova (25-6) vs 14 America East Champion (Binghamton/UMBC)
Minneapolis, MN - Fri/Sun
7 LSU (25-6) vs 10 Dayton (25-6)
2 Oklahoma (27-4) vs 15 E. Tennessee State * (21-10)
MIDWEST (Indianapolis, IN - Fri/Sun)
Kansas City, MO - Thur/Sat
1 Memphis (28-3) vs 16 Big West Champion
8 Siena (25-7) vs 9 Ohio State (20-9)
Boise, ID - Fri/Sun
5 Utah (21-8) vs 12 Arizona (19-12)
4 Missouri (24-6) vs 13 Sun Belt Champion
Miami, FL - Fri/Sun
6 California (22-9) vs 11 Colonial Champion (George Mason/Virginia Commonwealth)
3 Wake Forest (24-5) vs 14 Summit Champion
Dayton, OH - Fri/Sun
7 Oklahoma State (20-10) vs 10 Michigan (18-12)
2 Louisville (25-5) vs 15 Cornell * (19-9)
Conf. Alignment:
Big Ten - 8
Big East - 7
ACC - 6
Big 12 - 6
Pac 10 - 5
MWC - 4
SEC - 2
A-10 - 2
WCC - 2
MVC - 2
Others - 21
Schmolik
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Schmolik 64 Update (2/28/09 - Morning)
Hello, college basketball fans!
This is the 3rd Schmolik 64 Update. Records as of Friday, Feb. 27. Top 12 Seeds Only
EAST (Boston, MA - Thur/Sat)
Philadelphia, PA (Thur/Sat)
1 Connecticut (26-2) vs 16
8 Siena (22-6) vs 9 Maryland (17-10)
Boise, ID (Fri/Sun)
5 Arizona State (21-6) vs 12 Miami (16-10)
4 Utah (20-6) vs 13
Portland, OR (Thur/Sat)
6 Gonzaga (21-5) vs 11 Kentucky (19-9)
3 Missouri (23-4) vs 14
Greensboro, NC (Thur/Sat)
7 South Carolina (20-6) vs 10 West Virginia (19-9)
2 Duke (23-5) vs 15
MIDWEST (Indianapolis, IN - Fri/Sun)
Dayton, OH (Fri/Sun)
1 Pittsburgh (24-3) vs Play In Winner
8 Tennessee (17-10) vs 9 Wisconsin (16-10)
Miami, FL (Fri/Sun)
5 Xavier (23-5) vs 12 Arizona (18-10)
4 Florida State (21-7) vs 13
Portland, OR (Thur/Sat)
6 UCLA (21-7) vs 11 Providence (17-11)
3 Wake Forest (21-5) vs 14
Minneapolis, MN (Fri/Sun)
7 Butler (23-4) vs 10 Oklahoma State (18-9)
2 Michigan State (22-5) vs 15
SOUTH (Memphis, TN Fri/Sun)
Greensboro, NC (Thur/Sat)
1 North Carolina (23-3) vs 16
8 Texas (19-8) vs 9 Utah State (25-3)
Minneapolis, MN (Fri/Sun)
5 Illinois (23-6) vs 12 New Mexico (18-10)
4 Marquette (23-5) vs 13
Kansas City, MO (Fri/Sun)
6 LSU (24-4) vs 11 Creighton (24-6)
3 Kansas (23-5) vs 14
Dayton, OH (Fri/Sun)
7 Boston College (20-9) vs 10 Ohio State (18-8)
2 Louisville (22-5) vs 15
WEST (Glendale, AZ - Thur/Sat)
Kansas City, MO (Thur/Sat)
1 Oklahoma (25-3) vs 16
8 BYU (20-6) vs 9 Syracuse (19-8)
Boise, ID (Fri/Sun)
5 Clemson (22-5) vs 12 Michigan (17-11)
4 Washington (21-7) vs 13
Philadelphia, PA (Thur/Sat)
6 Purdue (21-7) vs 11 Virginia Tech (17-10)
3 Villanova (23-5)
Miami, FL (Fri/Sun)
7 California (21-7) vs 10 Dayton (23-5)
2 Memphis (25-3)
Schmolik
This is the 3rd Schmolik 64 Update. Records as of Friday, Feb. 27. Top 12 Seeds Only
EAST (Boston, MA - Thur/Sat)
Philadelphia, PA (Thur/Sat)
1 Connecticut (26-2) vs 16
8 Siena (22-6) vs 9 Maryland (17-10)
Boise, ID (Fri/Sun)
5 Arizona State (21-6) vs 12 Miami (16-10)
4 Utah (20-6) vs 13
Portland, OR (Thur/Sat)
6 Gonzaga (21-5) vs 11 Kentucky (19-9)
3 Missouri (23-4) vs 14
Greensboro, NC (Thur/Sat)
7 South Carolina (20-6) vs 10 West Virginia (19-9)
2 Duke (23-5) vs 15
MIDWEST (Indianapolis, IN - Fri/Sun)
Dayton, OH (Fri/Sun)
1 Pittsburgh (24-3) vs Play In Winner
8 Tennessee (17-10) vs 9 Wisconsin (16-10)
Miami, FL (Fri/Sun)
5 Xavier (23-5) vs 12 Arizona (18-10)
4 Florida State (21-7) vs 13
Portland, OR (Thur/Sat)
6 UCLA (21-7) vs 11 Providence (17-11)
3 Wake Forest (21-5) vs 14
Minneapolis, MN (Fri/Sun)
7 Butler (23-4) vs 10 Oklahoma State (18-9)
2 Michigan State (22-5) vs 15
SOUTH (Memphis, TN Fri/Sun)
Greensboro, NC (Thur/Sat)
1 North Carolina (23-3) vs 16
8 Texas (19-8) vs 9 Utah State (25-3)
Minneapolis, MN (Fri/Sun)
5 Illinois (23-6) vs 12 New Mexico (18-10)
4 Marquette (23-5) vs 13
Kansas City, MO (Fri/Sun)
6 LSU (24-4) vs 11 Creighton (24-6)
3 Kansas (23-5) vs 14
Dayton, OH (Fri/Sun)
7 Boston College (20-9) vs 10 Ohio State (18-8)
2 Louisville (22-5) vs 15
WEST (Glendale, AZ - Thur/Sat)
Kansas City, MO (Thur/Sat)
1 Oklahoma (25-3) vs 16
8 BYU (20-6) vs 9 Syracuse (19-8)
Boise, ID (Fri/Sun)
5 Clemson (22-5) vs 12 Michigan (17-11)
4 Washington (21-7) vs 13
Philadelphia, PA (Thur/Sat)
6 Purdue (21-7) vs 11 Virginia Tech (17-10)
3 Villanova (23-5)
Miami, FL (Fri/Sun)
7 California (21-7) vs 10 Dayton (23-5)
2 Memphis (25-3)
Schmolik
Monday, February 16, 2009
Schmolik 64 Update (2/16/09)
Hello, college basketball fans!
Top 12 Seeds in each regional only. Records as of 2/15/09
EAST REGIONAL (Boston, MA Thur/Sat March 26-28)
Philadelphia, PA (Thur/Sat)
1 Connecticut (24-1) vs 16
8 Ohio State (17-6) vs 9 South Carolina (18-5)
Boise, ID (Fri/Sun)
5 Arizona State (20-5) vs 12 Boston College (16-8)
4 Kansas (20-5)
Portland, OR (Thur/Sat)
6 Gonzaga (18-5) vs 11 Florida (19-6)
3 Xavier (21-4) vs 14
Greensboro, NC (Thur/Sat)
7 Syracuse (18-7) vs 10 Arizona (18-8)
2 Wake Forest (19-4) vs 15
WEST REGIONAL (Phoenix, AZ Thur/Sat March 26-28)
Dayton, OH (Fri/Sun)
1 Pittsburgh (22-2) vs Play In Winner (by default, only #1 seed playing on Friday)
8 Virginia Tech (16-8) vs 9 Texas (17-7)
Portland, OR (Thur/Sat)
5 Purdue (19-6) vs 12 BYU (18-5)
4 California (19-6) vs 13
Miami, FL (Fri/Sun)
6 UCLA (19-6) vs 11 Siena (20-6)
3 Clemson (20-4) vs 14
Dayton, OH (Fri/Sun)
7 Tennessee (16-8) vs Davidson (21-4)
2 Michigan State (20-4) vs 15
MIDWEST REGIONAL (Indianapolis, IN Fri/Sun March 27-29)
Greensboro, NC (Thur/Sat)
1 North Carolina (22-2) vs 16
8 West Virginia (17-8) vs 9 Minnesota (18-6)
Boise, ID (Fri/Sun)
5 Washington (19-6) vs 12 San Diego State (16-6)
4 Missouri (21-4) vs 13
Philadelphia, PA (Thur/Sat)
6 LSU (21-4) vs 11 Miami (14-9)
3 Villanova (20-5) vs 14
Kansas City, MO (Thur/Sat)
7 Butler (21-3) vs 10 Temple (15-9)
2 Memphis (22-3) vs 15
SOUTH REGIONAL (Memphis, TN Fri/Sun March 27-29)
Kansas City, MO (Thur/Sat)
1 Oklahoma (25-1) vs 16
8 Florida State (19-6) vs 9 Utah State (23-2)
Minneapolis, MN (Fri/Sun)
5 Illinois (21-5) vs 12 USC (15-9)
4 Marquette (21-4) vs 13
Minneapolis, MN (Fri/Sun)
6 Utah (18-6) vs 11 Kentucky (18-7)
3 Duke (20-5) vs 14
Miami, FL (Fri/Sun)
7 Dayton (23-3) vs 10 Wisconsin (15-9)
2 Louisville (19-5) vs 15
Top 12 Seeds in each regional only. Records as of 2/15/09
EAST REGIONAL (Boston, MA Thur/Sat March 26-28)
Philadelphia, PA (Thur/Sat)
1 Connecticut (24-1) vs 16
8 Ohio State (17-6) vs 9 South Carolina (18-5)
Boise, ID (Fri/Sun)
5 Arizona State (20-5) vs 12 Boston College (16-8)
4 Kansas (20-5)
Portland, OR (Thur/Sat)
6 Gonzaga (18-5) vs 11 Florida (19-6)
3 Xavier (21-4) vs 14
Greensboro, NC (Thur/Sat)
7 Syracuse (18-7) vs 10 Arizona (18-8)
2 Wake Forest (19-4) vs 15
WEST REGIONAL (Phoenix, AZ Thur/Sat March 26-28)
Dayton, OH (Fri/Sun)
1 Pittsburgh (22-2) vs Play In Winner (by default, only #1 seed playing on Friday)
8 Virginia Tech (16-8) vs 9 Texas (17-7)
Portland, OR (Thur/Sat)
5 Purdue (19-6) vs 12 BYU (18-5)
4 California (19-6) vs 13
Miami, FL (Fri/Sun)
6 UCLA (19-6) vs 11 Siena (20-6)
3 Clemson (20-4) vs 14
Dayton, OH (Fri/Sun)
7 Tennessee (16-8) vs Davidson (21-4)
2 Michigan State (20-4) vs 15
MIDWEST REGIONAL (Indianapolis, IN Fri/Sun March 27-29)
Greensboro, NC (Thur/Sat)
1 North Carolina (22-2) vs 16
8 West Virginia (17-8) vs 9 Minnesota (18-6)
Boise, ID (Fri/Sun)
5 Washington (19-6) vs 12 San Diego State (16-6)
4 Missouri (21-4) vs 13
Philadelphia, PA (Thur/Sat)
6 LSU (21-4) vs 11 Miami (14-9)
3 Villanova (20-5) vs 14
Kansas City, MO (Thur/Sat)
7 Butler (21-3) vs 10 Temple (15-9)
2 Memphis (22-3) vs 15
SOUTH REGIONAL (Memphis, TN Fri/Sun March 27-29)
Kansas City, MO (Thur/Sat)
1 Oklahoma (25-1) vs 16
8 Florida State (19-6) vs 9 Utah State (23-2)
Minneapolis, MN (Fri/Sun)
5 Illinois (21-5) vs 12 USC (15-9)
4 Marquette (21-4) vs 13
Minneapolis, MN (Fri/Sun)
6 Utah (18-6) vs 11 Kentucky (18-7)
3 Duke (20-5) vs 14
Miami, FL (Fri/Sun)
7 Dayton (23-3) vs 10 Wisconsin (15-9)
2 Louisville (19-5) vs 15
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